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Sunday, January 16, 2011

Double Channel Entry Strategy

During the LIVE forex trading bootcamp new strategies are discussed that haven’t been fully explained on the rapid forex blog yet. Each new strategy makes it’s way to the blog.
This post shows you two ways to trade a channel with examples from the USD/JPY & AUD/USD. A trade wasn’t entered that day, but it still shows you the criteria for dealing with a fibonacci channel trade.

90 Day Forex Trading Bootcamp Watchlist Archive

It’s going to be another great week of trading. Today I’m watching the USD/JPY. The AUD/USD has a mixed signal with a possible downtrend emerging, but the daily trend is still up, so I don’t want to go against it.

USD/JPY

It started with looking at the snapshot. Although the USD/JPY doesn’t have all the regions shaded, the charts show a more promising opportunity. The snapshot is merely a tool to track what’s happening with various timeframes and have a place to look for opportunities. Here’s the snapshot for today with the USD/JPY circled in red: Then we start looking at the charts. First, the 1hr chart has a nice downward slope. Near the bottom, you’ll see that prices have flattened out into a small (but short lasting) consolidation: If we zoom into the 15-min charts we’ll see this consolidation in more detail:

What to look for?

There’s two ways to enter this trade. We’re looking for short opportunities. You’ll also notice in the image above that there’s a tighter channel (thin blue lines) within the larger channel (thick red lines). To go short we’ll look at the 5-min trend. We’re looking for possible entries:
  1. Prices move to top of channel, then bounce down. Ride the trade to the bottom of the channel going short.
  2. Prices move down and break the lower channel. When prices retrace back up to form an umbrella handle below the channel, get in and ride a fibonacci wave.
I’ve illustrated these scenarios in the image below: Sooner or later, prices will have to leave this channel. Since it’s an 80 pip channel, this could easily happen in a few hours once Tokyo opens at 11 pm GMT. I’ll be watching this casually all day…
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