The Big Picture

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• Are huge earthquakes linked?
• Fox News: Less Honest than Dictatorships
• Porsche 918 Spyder: 0-60 3.1 seconds, 78MPG, $845k
• Monday Reading
• Keith Richard’s Japan Relief
• Nation’s GDP as US States, China Provinces
• How Manhattan’s Grid Was Formed
• Video: Tsunami Wipes Out Oirase, Japan Harbor
• How Did Canada Miss the Housing Bust?
• Existing Home Sales Soften (NSA)

Are huge earthquakes linked? Posted: 22 Mar 2011 01:30 AM PDT > New Scientist.com: “What is clear is that for the 6.2 years since 2004, there have been more great earthquakes around the world than in any 6.2-year period throughout the 110-year history of seismic recordings.” -Thorne Lay at the University of California, Santa Cruz. > Source: The megaquake connection: Are huge earthquakes linked? Catherine Brahic New Scientist, 16 March 2011 http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20928043.000-the-megaquake-connection-are-huge-earthquakes-linked.html

Fox News: Less Honest than Dictatorships Posted: 21 Mar 2011 11:00 PM PDT Robertson: This allegation is outrageous and it’s absolutely hypocritical CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson responds to allegations that reporters in Libya were used by Gadhafi’s forces as a human shield. A full transcript of the interview is after the jump. CNN.com: CNN correspondent rejects Fox report on human shields FULL TRANSCRIPT THIS IS A RUSH FDCH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. WOLF BLITZER, HOST: On another related – unrelated matter – maybe it is related – I want you to explain what you know about this suggestion Fox News reporting that you, a Reuters crew, some other journalists, were effectively used by Gadhafi as a human shield to prevent Allied fighter planes from coming in and attacking a certain position. Explain what you know about this. NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this allegation is outrageous and it’s absolutely hypocritical. You know, when you come to somewhere like Libya, you expect lies and deceit from the dictatorship here. You don’t expect it from the other journalists. Why do I say that? Because Fox News has said that they didn’t send somebody on this trip last night because they said it was a quote, unquote, “propaganda trip.” They sent a member of their team. He was non-editorial. He was non-technical, not normally a cameraman. He was given a camera by the team and told to come out and come on – come on the bus with the 40 other journalists who were there, who were free to get on the bus, free to get on the bus when they wanted, told us, when he was on the bus, that even he – this member of this Fox team, was surprised that their correspondent and the normal cameraman weren’t coming out, that he was being sent – this isn’t his normal job – that he was being sent. So that’s why I say what Fox is saying is outrageous and hypocritical. And the idea that we were some kind of human shields is nuts. I mean if they had actually been there – Steve Harrigan, the correspondent here, is somebody I’ve known for many years. I see him more times at breakfast than I see him out on trips with government officials here. Other correspondents here who go out regularly say the same things – NBC, CBS – all the other news teams here go out – not on all the government trips. We didn’t go out on another one yesterday. But we did – we very, very rarely see the Fox News team out on the trips. So for them to say and call this – to say they didn’t go and for them to call this and say this was government propaganda to hold us there as human shields when they didn’t even leave the hotel, the correspondent didn’t leave the hotel and go and see for himself, is ridiculous. We were taken there. We went in through the security. We filmed the building. We were given 15, 20 minutes to do that, five minutes in Gadhafi’s tent and then we were taken out. And I was literally physically pushed back on the bus when we left. That’s how quickly the government officials wanted to get us out. If I sound angry, it is because I am. As I say, I expect lies from the government here, I don’t expect it from other journalists and it’s, frankly, incredibly disappointing to me – Wolf. BLITZER: Well, did this Fox representative who went with you on this trip, did he have a camera? ROBERTSON: He was given a camera by the cameraman and the correspondent who stayed in the hotel and didn’t go out, a correspondent who very rarely leaves his hotel. I don’t know who he’s talking to here to pick up and find out what the story is. When we go on these government trips, it’s for a very simple reason – because we don’t want government officials to film it themselves, edit it themselves and then hand it off to us. We want to go for ourselves. We want to go and see, is it a command and control system? What are the telltale signs that that the government wouldn’t let us see if they edited the tape? That’s why we go, because we’re news professionals and we want to see it for ourselves. As I say, I’m – I’m disappointed, shocked. I find this a very, very poor situation – Wolf.

Porsche 918 Spyder: 0-60 3.1 seconds, 78MPG, $845k Posted: 21 Mar 2011 04:07 PM PDT I am not particularly a Porsche fan, but the stats on the Porsche 918 Spyder hybrid plug-in are astounding: • 0-60 in 3.1 seconds • 78MPG •  MSRP $845,000 Pre-orders now being taken at your friendly local Porsche dealer. Get one . . . > > Porsche Press Release after the jump Porsche’s Plug-In Hybrid 918 Spyder Goes from Dream to Reality Now available for ordering, the 918 Spyder will feature cutting-edge plug-in hybrid technology and stunning performance, forever changing the future of the super sports car ~~~ ATLANTA, March 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — After outstanding customer response to the concept car first shown at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show, Porsche today announced that dealers around the world will begin taking 918 Spyder customer orders. This is a significant step toward actual production of the company’s next super sports car, a Porsche that marries unique plug-in hybrid technology and outstanding performance in a visually stunning and purely Porsche package. The 918 Spyder will feature a high revving 500-plus horsepower V8 engine assisted by two electric motors with a total of at least 218 horsepower, yet Porsche estimates it will consume only 3.0 L/100 km based on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC).  Official EPA fuel economy figures or estimates will be announced just before the first customer cars begin arriving in the United States near the end of 2013. To ensure the 918 Spyder’s worldwide exclusivity, Porsche will produce no more than 918 examples. Start of production at Porsche’s famed factory in Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen is planned for Sept. 18, 2013 (9/18), and the U.S. base manufacturer’s suggested retail price is $845,000 (excluding destination and handling charges). With its design inspired by past Porsches like the Carrera GT super sports car and the legendary 917 and highly successful RS Spyder race cars, the 918 Spyder remains faithful to the 2010 concept car. Unlike the concept car, the two-seat production version, based on a carbon fiber-reinforced plastic monocoque, will feature a manual roof system with removable panels that can be stored in the front luggage compartment. Super high performance with very low fuel consumption and emissions The 918 Spyder will be powered by a unique plug-in hybrid system that will include a high-revving, mid-mounted V8 engine with capacity of more than 4.0 liters and producing at least 500 horsepower. The engine will be based on the Porsche RS Spyder racing engine that demonstrated its impressive performance and efficiency through multiple Michelin Green X Challenge victories in the American Le Mans Series, the Le Mans Series and the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Power will be transferred to the rear wheels via Porsche’s compact, seven-speed Porsche-Doppelkupplung (PDK) double-clutch gearbox. Two electric motors – one each on the front and rear axles – together will provide approximately 218 additional horsepower. This configuration also will offer an innovative, variable all-wheel drive system with independent control of the drive forces on both axles. Electrical energy will be stored in a liquid-cooled lithium-ion battery that can be recharged from a standard household outlet. Electric-only driving range is expected to be more than 16 miles on the NEDC. Recharge time will depend on each country’s electrical power network, but charging is expected to take about seven hours at 110V/10A in the United States. A quick-charge option is being evaluated to further reduce charging times. With anticipated combined fuel consumption of just 3.0 L/100 km on the NEDC, this equates to CO2 emissions of only 70 g/km or 112 g/mile. On the other hand, the Porsche 918 Spyder will deliver super sports car performance. It is estimated that the final production version will accelerate from zero to 60 mph in about 3.1 seconds on its way to an estimated top track speed of 199 mph. It should also tackle Germany’s famed Nurburgring Nordschleife in less than 7 minutes and 30 seconds, two seconds faster than the Porsche Carrera GT. Under the right conditions, the 918 Spyder will be able to drive on electric power alone at speeds up to 94 mph for limited distances. Customers who order the 918 Spyder also have the opportunity to acquire a special-edition 911 Turbo S Coupe or Cabriolet. Also limited to no more than 918 units, the 911 Turbo S Edition 918 Spyder will have exterior and interior design elements echoing the plug-in hybrid 918 Spyder supercar’s styling. It features similar exterior colors, carbon-fiber elements inside and out, enhanced leather equipment and numerous acid-green accents on items such as the brake calipers, illuminated sill plates, interior stitching and instrument cluster needles. A limited-edition badge on the glove compartment door will feature the same production number as the customer’s 918 Spyder. Worldwide 918 Spyder customers can begin ordering this special edition 911 Turbo S sports car today, and customer deliveries will start later in 2011. The U.S. base manufacturer’s suggested retail prices for the Coupe and Cabriolet versions are the same as the standard 911 Turbo S models, $160,700 and $172,100 respectively, excluding destination.

Monday Reading Posted: 21 Mar 2011 01:29 PM PDT • Kessler: Raise Rates to Boost the Economy (WSJ) • James Surowiecki: Creative Destruction? (New Yorker) • Dan Gross: 3 Things Banks Should Do Before They Pay Dividends (Yahoo Finance) • Small Changes, Big ResultsBehavioral Economics at Work in Poor Countries (Boston Review) • Possible Early Warning Sign for Market Crashes (Wired) • A surprising culprit in the nuclear crisis (Boston Globe) • Banking on a Paywall at The New York Times (Businessweek) • Can Google help turn trash into gasoline? (Fortune) • Frank Cottrell Boyce on Filmmaking (The Browser)

Keith Richard’s Japan Relief Posted: 21 Mar 2011 12:58 PM PDT Please visit the KeithRichards.com Store now to order a very special limited edition t-shirt Keith is making available. The Japan Relief t-shirt is based on a photo taken by Claude Gassian on the Japanese leg of the Steel Wheels tour in 1990 and is available in both classic and fitted styles. Keith will be sending 100% of the profits from the shirt’s sales to the Japan Society’s Earthquake Relief Fund.

Nation’s GDP as US States, China Provinces Posted: 21 Mar 2011 12:00 PM PDT Way back in 2007, I found this obscure chart from The York Group on a Norwegian blog, posted previously as Countries GDP as US States. The Economist has not only dug up this map, but went it one better, doing the same for China’s provinces that was done for the US. Here are both of their versions: > Comparing Country’s GDP to US States Chart courtesy of The Economist > Comparing Country’s GDP to China’s Provinces Chart courtesy of The Economist > Previously: Countries GDP as US States (January 15th, 2007)

How Manhattan’s Grid Was Formed Posted: 21 Mar 2011 10:19 AM PDT I read an interesting NYT article (No Hero in 1811, Street Grid's Father Was Showered With Produce, Not Praise) this morning about John Randel Jr., the creator of Manhattan’s rectilinear grid — officially known as “Commissioners' Map and Survey of Manhattan Island.” > click for interactive > Source: No Hero in 1811, Street Grid's Father Was Showered With Produce, Not Praise SAM ROBERTS NYT, March 20, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/nyregion/21randel.html See also: 200th Birthday for the Map That Made New York (NYT, March 21, 2011) Unturned Cobblestones on the City's Grid

Video: Tsunami Wipes Out Oirase, Japan Harbor Posted: 21 Mar 2011 10:06 AM PDT March 11 eyewitness video: In under 10 minutes, a harbor in Oirase Town, Aomori Prefecture is wiped out. A huge dry area that completely fills with water, showing just how much Ocean is moved by the Tsunami. Hat tip boingboing

How Did Canada Miss the Housing Bust? Posted: 21 Mar 2011 09:38 AM PDT > Interesting observations from Merrill Lynch's Sheryl King and Ryan Bohren. They believe Canadian housing is “in bubble territory” with commensurate “down-side risks remain despite an accelerating economy.” However, they are not looking for a Canadian Housing crash. The “structure of the Canadian mortgage market greatly reduces the probability of a US style housing melt-down.” The US had excessively risky lending by vulnerable financial institutions, along with vastly over supplied housing market. What makes Canada so different?Four factors of the Canadian mortgage market: 1. We find government guaranteed mortgage insurance mitigates risk to financial institutions. Unlike the US where financial institutions were clearly over exposed and the solvency of insurance providers were questionable. 75% of mortgages in Canada are fully insured with Government guarantees and all mortgages with an LTV higher than 80% must be insured by regulated lenders. 2. Legal recourse laws reduce the risk of households walking away from their mortgage and implicitly improve lending quality, unlike the US where reports of abandoned vacant homes were and remain rampant. By our estimation around 90% of mortgages are full recourse in Canada, creating a more lender-friendly environment. 3. About 30% of the mortgage funding market has a federal government guarantee, which likely reduces the risk of a US style funding freeze. Indeed during the height of the credit crisis, the Government of Canada initiated a very effective Insured Mortgage Purchase Program which essentially kept the Canadian mortgage market functioning. 4. Canadian's have historically held lower leverage ratios than their US counter parts and tend to gravitate to more conservative mortgage options. Canadian household balance sheets have deteriorated and have been treading into more risky areas like variable rate mortgages, but sub prime lending remains a virtually non-existent market in Canada. > UPDATE: March 21, 2011 3:22pm Here is the Merrill piece: Our homes have four walls (PDF) > Source: Why no Canadian, Australian housing busts? Tracy Alloway FT Alphaville, Mar 21 15:31. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/21/521346/why-no-canadian-australian-housing-busts/

Existing Home Sales Soften (NSA) Posted: 21 Mar 2011 09:00 AM PDT I have a few favorite Housing charts: Median Income to Median Home Price, Housing Value as % of GDP. This one may very well be my favorite: Existing Home Sales NOT Seasonally Adjusted. Why? A few reasons: • It shows the seasonal rhythm of housing sales, ticking up each month from January forward, with an annual double top in May/July. • Its relative — no matter how much the NAR data may be flawed, it is a consistent methodology. Thus, comparing the year-over-year numbers provides some insight into the Housing market. • The impact of the government tax credit is obvious (see Yellow line); once that faded, prices faded as well. Here is the chart: > click for ginormous chart Chart courtesy of Calculated Risk > Sources: February Existing-Home Sales Decline NAR, March 21, 2011 http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/03/feb_decline

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