Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

Bloomberg to Congress: U.S. Riots Ahead
The History of Options
Sao Paulo’s Servant Problem
Twitter Digest: 2011-09-15

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 05:58 PM PDT

I have forecast that we’ll see economically-driven U.S. riots by 2013. It seems I’ve been joined in that belief by Michael Bloomberg:

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg warned Congress Friday, saying members should expect riots if the nation's rate of unemployment remains above 9 percent.

"We have a lot of kids graduating college, can't find jobs," Mr. Bloomberg said on his weekly radio show. "That's what happened in Cairo. That's what happened in Madrid. You don't want those kinds of riots here."

via Michael Bloomberg to Congress: Time to expect riots | The State Column.

The History of Options

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 10:43 AM PDT

Good paper with historical overview of options:

This chapter discusses the history of option contracts from ancient times until the appearance of Theorie der Prämiengeschäfte by Vincenz Bronzin in 1908. The history examines the use of contracts with option features prior to the introduction of trade in free standing option contracts on the Antwerp bourse during the 16th century. Descriptions of the Amsterdam share option market by de la Vega in the 17th century and de Pinto in the 18thcentury are reviewed. The specific language of a late 17th century English option contract is provided in detail. The development and practice of option trading in the 18th and 19th centuries, as reflected in merchant manuals of that period, isexamined. The article concludes with an overview of late 19th century option trading in securities and commodities.

Full paper here.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Sao Paulo’s Servant Problem

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 10:38 AM PDT

From Intelligent Life:

Still, São Paulo is a great place to be seeing out the global recession. Brazil's economy is booming, and much of the benefit is being experienced lower down the income scale. My boss, Mike Reid, the editor of The Economist's Americas section, who lived in São Paulo in the late 1990s, says that better diet and greater self-esteem mean that poor Brazilians stand noticeably taller now. One private-equity dealmaker told me his family's maid and nanny have both started to sell cosmetics door-to-door in the evenings. He doesn't think either will still be with him in six months. To hear a Paulistano complaining that you can't get a good maid these days is to be reminded of Bertie Wooster's constant fear that one of his friends would poach Jeeves. São Paulo is in the throes of a full-blown Servant Problem, and I feel privileged to witness it.

via BEING THERE: SÃO PAULO | More Intelligent Life.

Twitter Digest: 2011-09-15

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 04:00 AM PDT

All that's missing in this 50%-off deal for a campaign dinner with President Obama is the Groupon. http://t.co/qTWJqrRn ->
Fixed and retweeted on Obama/Geithner/Citi. My error. ->
Allegation in new book: Geithner didn't consider liquidating Citibank in 2009 when asked to by Pres Obama. http://t.co/xsp3pMlE /via @jashsf ->
As pointed out by @matthewstoller, Geithner allegedly ignored Obama directive to "consider" liquidating Citbank. I'll fix tweet. ->
Lots of troubling tidbits like the preceding from Ron Susskind's new book. http://t.co/xsp3pMlE ->
I am supposedly going to New York next week. Still trying to figure out how that happened. ->
Programming note: The BBC series "How the Earth Made Us" is wonderful. Too bad there's no way to, you know, link & share. ->