The Big Picture

Weekly Eurozone Watch
Vampire Weekend on Jimmy Kimmel
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/23/12)
Housing: Stable, Not in ‘Full-Blown Recovery’
FRED Widget
Black Friday Skepticism (Finally!) Goes Mainstream
All the macro news that’s fit to email
ThanksFriday
Turn Old iPhones into Always-on Video Messaging Units
10 Black Friday AM Reads
Which One Are You?
Autonomy Merger Pitchbook

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 05:12 PM PST

Key Data Points
German 10-year Bund 10 bps higher;
France 10-year 2 bps tighter to the Bund;
Ireland 29 bps tighter;
Italy 22 bps tighter;
Spain 36 bps tighter;
Portugal 98 bps tighter;
Greece 110 bps tighter;
Large Eurozone banks up 1-11 percent;
Euro$ up to up 1.77 percent.

Quote of the Week

The chances that Catalonia will ever move to full-fledged independence are next to zero, and the region's politicians are mostly using the threat to renegotiate the terms of its financial relations with Madrid.
- Pierre Briançon, Reuters Breakingviews

~~Picture~~ Poster of the Week

Comments
Ireland 10/9-year bond yield and spread to the German bund lowest weekly close of year;
French banks, BNP and SocGen, highest weekly close of the year;
Greece says official lenders closer to debt deal – Reuters;
German business confidence unexpectedly rises for first gain in eight months – Bloomberg;
Catalonia to vote Sunday on split with Spain – The Australian;
EU budget talks collapses – FT;

Charts

(click here if charts are not observable)

Vampire Weekend on Jimmy Kimmel

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 03:00 PM PST

Jimmy Kimmel Live: Back to Brooklyn – Vampire Weekend performs during Jimmy’s week of shows in Brooklyn.

Vampire Weekend Performs “Unbelievers”

~~~

Vampire Weekend Performs “Oxford Comma

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/23/12)

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 10:30 AM PST

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) China’s HSBC Nov preliminary mfr’g PMI rises to 50.4 v 49.5, above 50 for 1st time since Oct ’11 (Shanghai index though doesn’t respond).
2) Of 70 cities surveyed, 35 see property price increases in China in Oct vs 31 in Sept.
3) Euro zone mfr’g/services index holds steady at 45.8 vs 45.7 in Oct but still just off the lowest since June ’09.
4) German IFO business confidence unexpectedly rises to 101.4 from 100 in Oct but back to the Sept level. Expectation was 99.5.
5) No official Greek deal (won’t be the last deal) yet but market expects one as Greek stocks rally 7% on the week as does the Greek 10 yr bond (that could benefit from buyback).
6) French business confidence up 3 pts in Nov to 88 from weakest since Aug ’09.
7) Cease fire between Israel and Hamas.
8) US Oct Housing Starts total 894k, 54k better than expected and the most since July ’08 led by multi family. Still long way to go as still 60% below high and near trough levels of the ’81 and ’91 recessions. Overall permits stay relatively elevated.
9) Existing Home Sales 50k better than est but prior month revised down by 60k. At 4.79mm, it’s 2nd best since Apr/May ’10 tax credit induced boost. Perspective, single family home sales at same level as Dec 1997.
10) NAHB home price index rises 5 pts to 46, best since May ’06, getting close to breakeven of 50.
11) MBA said purchase apps rise 2.7% after an 11% rise in prior week, matches highest since June.
12) Very young data point with little history but the Markit US mfr’g PMI rises to 52.4 from 51, the best since June and we’ll see if it correlates with ISM out on Dec 3.

Negatives:

1) MBA said refi apps fell 3.2% on the week after 13.1% jump last week but still remains 6.5% below the average since the Fed started QE3.
2) Final Nov UoM confidence at 82.7 is tempered from preliminary reading of 84.9 but holds steady with 82.6 in Oct, best since Sept '07.
3) Moody’s takes away France’s triple A rating 10 months after S&P did. French 10 yr yield up 9 bps on the week but CDS cheaper by 5 bps, and CAC up everyday this week.
4) China’s FDI falls .2% y/o/y in Oct vs est of up 1%. It’s down for 11th month in past 12.
5) Japanese exports down 6.5% in Sept y/o/y, lower by 20.1% to China and by 11.6% to EU. Relief from weak yen seen in Nikkei rally.

Housing: Stable, Not in ‘Full-Blown Recovery’

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 09:32 AM PST

Housing May Be Stable, but Not in 'Full-Blown Recovery': Ritholtz

FRED Widget

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 09:30 AM PST

We previously mentioned the very cool FRED app for iPhone/iPad users. Don’t despair, desktop users, there is also a widget for you:

Hat tip Econ Academics

I think I need to install this in my side bar!

A combination of 5 most important data points change monthly + the 5 most recent data points would be Ideal. Permanent data points: NFP, U3 Unemployment, CPI, GDP and 10 year Interest Rates are the ones I want to be permanent, updating as new data comes out. Below that, I would like to see whatever the 5 most recent releases were.

Now if I can only figure out how to customize the data feed . . .

Black Friday Skepticism (Finally!) Goes Mainstream

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 07:30 AM PST

Over the years, I have been rather annoyed (perhaps too much) at the annual foolishness over Black Friday forecasts. Each year, we hear breathless predictions of ridiculous increases in consumer spending — holiday shopping rises 16% this season! — which turn out to be wildly over-optimistic, and are never confirmed by the actual data.
7
I’ve blogged about this annually for the past decade. Carl Bialik, the WSJ’s numbers guy, did a great piece on this a few years ago (Holiday Sales Numbers Don’t Add Up) but other than that, there is not a big MSM issue. I finally wrote it up for the Washington Post last year: Did Black Friday save the season? Beware the retail hype.

This year, the idea seems to have spread into the mainstream: Lots of coverage about it, with a few choice quotes from you know who tossed in for good measure.

Here is the The Globe and Mail:

“Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer of Fusion IQ, a New York investment tool firm, is a long-time skeptic of early survey results. Not only are they released too early to compare to actual sales numbers, he says, but their measurement techniques are simply too indirect.

Foot-traffic assessments don't properly separate browsers from buyers, Mr. Ritholz said. And he's even more critical of surveys asking shoppers how much they plan to spend – which is how the NRF produces parts of its results. "Humans are terrible at forecasting their own behaviours," he said.”

And NBC:

“Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research at Fusion IQ, takes to his popular blog every year to bemoan the "wildly optimistic" surveys that the media quotes at the end of Black Friday weekend.

Without fail, he says, the reports exaggerate consumer enthusiasm. He pointed to last year's National Retail Foundation's claim that sales had spiked by 16 percent – which, if true, would have been a record-breaking sum. There was no apparent attempt to check the data later on, but economists generally agree that consumer spending increased by less than 6 percent over the entire 2011 holiday season . . .

"You should be reluctant to draw too big a conclusion from one day," Ritholtz said. "As we've seen, it never lives up to the hype. In fact, part of the reason there's so much hype and false signals is there are so many people trying to get a read into that one day, far more than what you should typically be willing to see in one day. This is an economy, not an event."

And MoneyWatch:

“As financial pundit Barry Ritholtz wrote last year: No, retail sales did not climb 16 percent. Surveys where people forecast their own future spending are, as we have seen repeatedly in the past, pretty much worthless. We actually have no idea just yet as to whether, and exactly how much, sales climbed. The data simply is not in yet. The most you can accurately say is according to some foot traffic measurements, more people appeared to be in stores on Black Friday 2011 than in 2010.”

So the good news is that print media has figured this out. Now, let’s see if television and radio can get their story straight . . .

Previously:
Did Black Friday save the season? Beware the retail hype. (Washington Post, December 4, 2011)

Retail Sales Disappoint on False Black Friday Reports (December 13th, 2011)

No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%) (November 28th, 2011)

Entering the Holiday Shopping Season (Beware Surveys!) (October 28th, 2009)

Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales (December 1st, 2008)

Repeat After Me: Spending Surveys Are Meaningless (October 2007)

More Bad Data from the NRF? (November 2006)

Holiday Sales Numbers Don't Add Up (December 1st, 2005)

Sources:
Don't look to Black Friday for clues to the market
JOSH O'KANE
The Globe and Mail Thursday, Nov. 22 2012
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/dont-look-to-black-friday-for-clues-to-the-market/article5577046/

Despite Hype, Black Friday Can’t Predict Holiday Shopping Patterns
Jon Schuppe
NBC, Nov 21, 2012
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/the-scene/shopping/Despite-Hype-Black-Friday-Isnt-a-Good-Gauge-of-Holiday-Spending-180226481.html

Lies, damned lies and Black Friday sales
Constantine von Hoffman
MoneyWatch, November 21, 2012
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57551146/lies-damned-lies-and-black-friday-sales/

All the macro news that’s fit to email

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 06:27 AM PST

China’s economy continues to show signs of stabilizing as the private sector weighted HSBC flash mfr’g PMI rose to 50.4 in Nov from 49.5 in Oct. It’s the 1st time since Oct ’11 above 50 but the Shanghai index is actually down a touch over the past two days with the number reported Wed night. Taiwan’s stock market though rallied 3.1% as their Finance Minister was quoted as saying that funds either fully or partially owned by the state should buy stocks. While closed today, the Nikkei yesterday rallied another 1.5%, taking its 7 day move to up 8.1% to the best close since early May on the weaker yen theme.

In Europe yesterday, the mfr’g and services composite index for the region stabilized at near the lowest level since June ’09 at 45.8 in Nov vs 45.7 in Oct. Today, the German IFO business confidence # unexpectedly rose to 101.4 vs 100 in Oct and was better than the estimate of 99.5. It is now back to where it was in Sept and the euro is at a 3 week high vs the US$ in response. French business confidence also improved to 88 from 85 which was the weakest since Aug ’09. On Greece, talks will continue into next week.

Back home, the WSJ is quoting voting member Williams that he’ll basically be voting for QE4 as he thinks the market expects it and if they didn’t, “it would push rates up and cause financial conditions to be a little less supportive of growth.” Based on this thought, we may go to QE10. The Fed also seems to want to wait until after inflation gets above their target to reevaluate its policy and ECB member Weidmann said this today, “flirt with inflation and you’ll end up married to it.”

ThanksFriday

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 05:00 AM PST

Interesting visualization that allows you to track the differences between social media allowing you to visualize the differences between activity on Thanksgiving and Black Friday in real time.

The georeferenced Twitter and Instagram contributions related to Thanksgiving and Black Friday over the 3 days of November 21 (eve), 22 (Thanksgiving) and 23 (Black Friday) 2012 over the city of New York might reveal something interesting. Or it might not, and merely look pretty cool.

click for interactive graphic

by accurat

Turn Old iPhones into Always-on Video Messaging Units

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:30 AM PST

Perch is an app that repurposes old iPhones and iPads, transforming them into video message systems.

Recycle old iOS devices into always-on video messaging units

Hat tip C/Net

10 Black Friday AM Reads

Posted: 23 Nov 2012 03:30 AM PST

Are you back at work? Sorry. see if these help:

• Don't look to Black Friday for clues to the market (Globe & Mail)
• Banned on Wall St: Facebook, Twitter and Gmail (Dealbook)
• Why Black Friday Is a Behavioral Economist's Nightmare (NY Mag) see also Black Friday ‘Doorbusters’ Don’t Always Hold Up (WSJ)
• Is austerity about to hit the EU? (Economist)
• Thanksgiving by the numbers (CNN)
• Floyd Norris: Tax Reform Might Start With a Look Back to '86 (NYT)
• Like Minority Report! How technology opens the door for personalised pricing (BBC)
• Task force says global shadow banking hits $67 trillion (Reuters) see also Five Steps to Fix Shadow Banking (Bloomberg Businessweek)
• 29 More Rules for Thanksgiving Touch Football (WSJ)
• The Top 75 'Pictures of the Day' for 2012 (Twisted Sifter)