The Big Picture

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• Putting Fukushima In Perspective
• 10 Thursday PM Reads
• Restless America: State-to-State Migration
• BCA U.S. Equity Valuation Index
• 10 Thursday AM Reads
• Happy New Year: You Are A Useless Moron that Sucks
• Greg Harmon: We Are All Useless Morons that Suck

Putting Fukushima In Perspective Posted: 02 Jan 2014 10:30 PM PST There was no background radioactive cesium before above-ground nuclear testing and nuclear accidents started. Wikipedia provides some details on the distribution of cesium-137 due to human activities: Small amounts of caesium-134 and caesium-137 were released into the environment during nearly all nuclear weapon tests and some nuclear accidents, most notably the Chernobyl disaster. *** Caesium-137 is unique in that it is totally anthropogenic. Unlike most other radioisotopes, caesium-137 is not produced from its non-radioactive isotope, but from uranium. It did not occur in nature before nuclear weapons testing began. By observing the characteristic gamma rays emitted by this isotope, it is possible to determine whether the contents of a given sealed container were made before or after the advent of atomic bomb explosions. This procedure has been used by researchers to check the authenticity of certain rare wines, most notably the purported "Jefferson bottles". As the EPA notes: Cesium-133 is the only naturally occurring isotope and is non-radioactive; all other isotopes, including cesium-137, are produced by human activity. What people call "background" radiation is really the amount of radiation deposited into the environment within the last 100 years from nuclear tests and nuclear accidents (and naturally-occurring substances, such as radon). 2,053 nuclear tests occurred between 1945 and 1998:   Above-ground nuclear tests – which caused numerous cancers to the "downwinders" – were covered up by the American, French and other governments for decades. See this, this, this, this, this and this. But the amount of radiation pumped out by Fukushima dwarfs the amount released by the nuclear tests. As nuclear engineer and former nuclear executive Arnie Gundersen notes, the wave of radioactive cesium from Fukushima which is going to hit the West Coast of North America will be 10 times greater than from the nuclear tests (starting at 55:00). This graphic from Woods Hole in Massachusetts – one of the world's top ocean science institutions – shows how much more cesium was dumped into the sea off Japan from Fukushima as compared to nuclear testing and Chernobyl: (And Fukushima radiation has arrived on the West Coast years earlier than predicted.) The Canadian government has confirmed in October that Fukushima radiation will exceed "levels higher than maximum fallout" from the nuclear tests. The party line from the Japanese, Canadian and American governments are that these are safe levels of radiation.   Given that those countries have tried to ban investigative journalism and have tried to cover up the scope of the Fukushima disaster, people may want to investigate for ourselves. For example, Gundersen notes that the U.S. government flew helicopters with special radiation testing equipment 90 days after the Fukushima meltdown happened.  The government said it was just doing a routine "background radiation" check, but that it was really measuring the amount of "hot particles" in the Seattle area (starting at 27:00). Hot particles are inhaled and become very dangerous "internal emitters". The government then covered up the results on the basis of "national security". As the Washington Department of Health noted at the time: A helicopter flying over some urban areas of King and Pierce counties will gather radiological readings July 11-28, 2011. [Seattle is in King County.] The U.S. Department of Energy's Remote Sensing Laboratory Aerial Measurement System will collect baseline levels of radioactive materials. ** Some of the data may be withheld for national security purposes. Similarly, the Department of Homeland Security and National Nuclear Security Administration sent low-flying helicopters over the San Francisco Bay Area in 2012 to test for radiation. But they have not released the results. Indeed, residents of Seattle breathed in 5 hot particles each day in April of 2011 … a full 50% of what Tokyo residents were breathing at the time:   (the video is from June 2011.) After all, the reactors at Fukushima literally exploded … and ejected cladding from the reactors and fuel particles. And see this. Gundersen says that geiger counters don't measure hot particles. Unless the government or nuclear scientists measure and share their data, we are in the dark as to what's really going on.

10 Thursday PM Reads Posted: 02 Jan 2014 01:30 PM PST My afternoon train reading: • Can mighty Wall St. bull keep charging in 2014? (USA Today) see also Ten Market Guarantees for 2014 (WSJ) • Answers to 5 questions about legalized pot in Colorado (USA Today) • Dollar bulls see greenback gaining strength (WSJ) see also No Bounce Seen for a Deflated Commodities Sector in 2014 (WSJ) • Ideas adjust to new 'facts' of finance (FT) • U.S. Home Sales Post First Yearly Drop in 29 Months (World Property Channel) • Billionaires Worth $3.7 Trillion Surge as Gates Wins 2013 (Bloomberg) • Evolution Is More Popular Than Ever With Americans (Liberty Voice) but see GOP support for modern biology drops (MSNBC) • A Small Bank in Utah Has Launched Wall Street’s War on the Volcker Rule (New Republic) • What 2014 means for Obamacare (Washington Post) • Bitcoin Is a High-Tech Dinosaur Soon to Be Extinct (Bloomberg) What are you reading?   Current Post-Financial Crisis Retracement Level Source: Chart of the Day

Restless America: State-to-State Migration Posted: 02 Jan 2014 11:30 AM PST From Vizynary: Approximately 7.1 million Americans moved to another state in 2012. That's over 2.2% of the U.S. population. The United States has a long history of people picking up and moving their families to other parts of the country, in search of better livelihoods. That same spirit of mobility, a willingness to uproot oneself, seems alive and well today based on the visualization of migration patterns above. Click for an interactive graphic. Source: Vizynary

BCA U.S. Equity Valuation Index Posted: 02 Jan 2014 09:30 AM PST click for larger graphic Source: BCA Research   There seems to be an increasing concern that stocks have become wildly overvalued, especially in light of rising interest rates. However, somewhat overvalued U.S. equity prices can continue to rise if price/earning multiples keep expanding.   Continues here

10 Thursday AM Reads Posted: 02 Jan 2014 07:00 AM PST Good morning. Here’s my reading list to start off your first day of New Year work: • The Economy's Secret Success in 2013 (Daily Beast) see also High Rollers in a Buying Mood (NY Times) • Headlines from a Mathematically Literate World (Math With Bad Drawings) • U.S. Investors Not Sold on Stock Market as Wealth Creator (Gallup) see also The Great (Sort Of) Rotation (Reformed Broker) Continues here

Happy New Year: You Are A Useless Moron that Sucks Posted: 02 Jan 2014 05:30 AM PST Over the holiday vacation, I try to kick back a bit, unwind, recharge the batteries. But I still scan my favorite media sources and blogs for interesting ideas. One that stood out was a short post from Greg Harmon of Dragonfly Capital. Titled "We Are All Useless Morons that Suck," it actually made me laugh out loud. Greg fearlessly pointed out a truth that is ignored by all too many investors: This trading thingie is really not your forté: “Let's face it: You suck at investing. Your adviser sucks at investing, too. If you had picked the best stock to buy every day you could have turned $1,000 into $264 billion by mid December. That is a 26.4 billion percent return. Did you even get a 1 billion percent return? How about 1 million percent? 1000%? 100%? If you did not hit a 100% return then you did not get even 4/10 millionths of what was out there.” Continues here

Greg Harmon: We Are All Useless Morons that Suck Posted: 02 Jan 2014 03:00 AM PST Let's face it you suck at investing. Your adviser sucks at investing too. If you had picked the best stock to buy every day you could have turned $1000 into $264 billion by mid December. That is a 26.4 billion percent return. Did you even get a 1 billion percent return? How about 1 million percent? 1000%? 100%? If you did not hit a 100% return then you did not get even 4/10 millionths of what was out there. Translation: You suck at stock picking. People like Jack Bogle will use this type of data to tell you that you are wasting your time even trying and that you should just index your portfolio. Coincidentally he runs a few dollars in an index fund. I find it more interesting when some manager makes a killing and convinces themselves that they are geniuses. No one in this game is a genius. 100% return sucks remember? When you dig into more of these people, the elite suckers, the ones that can do it again and again, they all have one thing in common. It is not that they are on television and have great hair. Have you noticed that they usually are a bit modest about their results? The one thing they have in common is that they all have a process and are continually trying to improve it. Yes there is still skill involved to be an elite sucker, but all of them also know that they are not as good as they can be and are trying to be better everyday. They work at it full time, all the time. And the best they can do is make less than 4/10 millionths of the best possible return out there. Where else can you strive to achieve that kind of suckiness and be called a superstar? There are only 3 days left in the trading year and you are not likely to materially change your return against market perfection. But those 3 days are 3 more days to try to get better at what you do. To suck less. If you had a 'good' year, beating your benchmark then congratulations. But move on and keep trying to get better, because you still suck. Happy New Year. ~~~ Greg Harmon, Dragonfly Captial

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