The Big Picture |
- The Continuing Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions
- The Future
- Vaccine-Preventable Outbreaks
- 10 Sunday AM Reads
- Oysters Make a Comeback
- Banks as Patient Fixed Income Investors
| The Continuing Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions Posted: 03 Mar 2014 02:00 AM PST |
| Posted: 02 Mar 2014 12:00 PM PST MAJOR LABELS Survive. Because they’ve got the money and the relationships with radio. Wanna compete? Have the money and the relationships. Until the radio hegemony is broken, the major labels will sustain. RADIO It’s the curation, stupid! And the ability to garner and maintain an audience. No one wants to go where no one else is. Prior to the Internet there was very little off the grid and we were all aware of it. Now, music, like information, is infinite. Do you really want to live on Pluto? SOUNDSCAN Toast. Let’s see, they get their “accurate” numbers from record stores, which are declining, and sales no longer mean anything, gross does. Look at your bottom line, not specific elements. Add up your recording and streaming revenue and tickets, merch and sponsorship dollars then tell me whether you’re winning or not. Tickets are much more expensive than they used to be. And sponsorship dwarfs the dollars of yore. To focus on recording dollars is to miss the point. SPOTIFY Helped Universal’s numbers. Read the reports. If you believe streaming is the death of music and there are no dollars involved, you’re uneducated, you’re probably still saying that P2P is gonna kill the incentive to record! But the truth is there are more recordings than ever and I don’t know anybody who steals music anymore, why? BILLBOARD The bible no more! To think Janice Min can save “Billboard” is to believe Guggenheim didn’t overpay for it! But focusing on pictures and celebrities in an era where viewpoint and voice matter…is to miss the point. In other words, whatever “Billboard” was it will never be again. ROLLING STONE Losing Matt Taibbi is like your lead singer quitting the band. Just like MTV, “Rolling Stone” fumbled its digital future. Neither of these outlets mean much online. There’s still a vacuum without an inhabiting music site. Wanna know why? Because everybody in music is so busy saying their stuff is better, and there’s so little money involved, that anybody with a brain is in tech and all we’re left with is the nerds who believe the mainstream is anathema. But the truth is, we’re all gravitating towards the mainstream, it’s inevitable in a Tower of Babel society, you want to find someone who can speak your language, anyone. BLOCKBUSTERS Will rule the future. If you’re not a star, you’re a nobody. Sure, fans will support journeymen, but the old saw wherein you pay your dues and you gradually climb up the ranks? It don’t happen that way no more. Now either you write and play music that many can get, or you reside in your niche. MANAGERS Same as it ever was. Every hit act has one. Having a great manager is more important than having a great deal, just ask the Beatles! ALBUMS Look at it from the perspective of the listener… He’s time constrained and only wants the best. No one has a short attention span, everybody can just separate the wheat from the chaff, instantly. Don’t tell people they have to give your music time to percolate, no one’s got that time. You’re in the hit business whether you’re radio-friendly or not. You need to create the one hit listen. Which is why Max Martin and Dr. Luke are so successful, they understand the game. You might pooh-pooh the hits, but a lot of work went into them and they’re not easy to create. Making money is hard. Not because people don’t want to pay, but because they don’t want to pay for crap! If every one of the tracks on your album is a certifiable smash, release an LP. But it turns out the public only had time for Adele’s “21.” VISIBILITY This week’s soon to be forgotten new album…BECK’S! An unbelievable publicity campaign with absolutely no sticking power. Next week there’s no story. Unless your track is going to get radio play or you’re constantly on the road playing it it’s got a shelf life of close to zero. Your hard core fans buy it, everybody else forgets it. Tomorrow’s musicians have a full time job staying in the public eye. It’s your job to figure out how to do this. But the best way is to dribble out quality music. Because remember…it’s about the bottom line, not anemic record sales. EXPERIENCE Not everybody can divine a hit. Not everybody knows where the bodies are buried. Which is why the business is run by old men (and a few women!) They’ve got intuition. You might think you know what’s going on, but you really don’t. Pay your dues! TAYLOR SWIFT Is the second most influential artist working. The first is the rappers. Anyone can be a rapper, note I didn’t say a GOOD rapper, but a rapper. Learning how to play an instrument and write songs requires a bigger investment. But people are making it. Just like Mariah Carey begat Christina Aguilera and the Melisma Maddies of TV singing competitions, we’re going to have a bunch of girls singing songs from the heart. Ms. Swift is the biggest star in America, if you’re not trying to replicate her success, you’re looking up a blind alley. She’s represents everything classic rock used to…catchy stuff sung from the heart that sets your mind free. COUNTRY Is only going to get bigger. Because not everybody’s a hipster and people clamor for songs that speak to their condition that they can sing along with. YOUTUBE Just like Netflix is the majority of bandwidth, YouTube is propped up by music. It’s where fans go to testify. If they’re not making videos of themselves singing your song…it’s not a hit. Video is the new radio. Especially now that everybody can compete. Not everybody is listening to the same radio station, if they’re listening at all. But everybody has YouTube at their fingertips and visits the site on a regular basis. It’s America’s radio station. Just check the views of those monster hits! ELECTRONIC MUSIC Who knows? It survives. Does it surpass hip-hop to become the dominant format? Maybe… After all, Avicii’s “Wake Me Up” just became the most played Spotify track of all time. Worldwide. And it is a worldwide business, more than ever before. Everybody’s got money, music is the universal language, speak it. CREDIBILITY Do not conflate the wannabe famous no-talent youngsters with true stars. Biggest star of the under twenty set this year? Lorde, with “Royals.” Yes, the less than perfectly good looking geek with the nerdy boyfriend who speaks her mind and truth to power. If you think it’s about cozying up to the Fortune 500, you’re still living in the last decade, or admitting to yourself your music doesn’t capture the zeitgeist, and therefore most people are not interested in it, or can enjoy it today and then forget it. Quick quiz… Name two songs from Jay Z’s Samsung album! Better yet, two songs from Beyonce’s new LP! How about two from Springsteen’s! Those three albums had reams of press, but none of them have stuck. Sticking is the key, not mainstream media coverage, certainly not paid for by an electronics company that’s hipper than your tunes. CLASSIC ROCK Soon to be dead on the road. We’ve got somewhere between five and ten years left. See ‘em now, before they lose their voices or die. We’re in the middle of a transition wherein the younger acts are generating the touring dollars. It’s happening. MBAs Will continue to have no place in the music business, because art can’t be quantified and one hit record blows all your projections to hell. Sure, controlling costs and knowing where the dollars are is important, but not as much as great music. There’s no soul in tech, but soul is the foundation of music.
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| Posted: 02 Mar 2014 09:00 AM PST
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| Posted: 02 Mar 2014 05:30 AM PST My Sunday morning reads:
What are you reading?
Average Job Creation and Destruction Rates by Size and Age of Business (1987 – 2011)
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| Posted: 02 Mar 2014 03:00 AM PST Connoisseurs across the country are binging on oysters. The trend is, at least in part, the result of a rapid growth of oyster farms on the East and West Coasts. Source: Loss Leaders on the Half Shell |
| Banks as Patient Fixed Income Investors Posted: 02 Mar 2014 02:30 AM PST |
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