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Friday, August 22, 2014

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Economic policy, with and without forecasts

Posted: 22 Aug 2014 02:00 AM PDT

SYRAQ

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 05:30 PM PDT

10 Thursday PM Reads

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 02:30 PM PDT

My afternoon train reads:

• Shiller P/E Shows Confidence in Profit Outlook (Bloomberg)
• The Legend of Jackson Hole (FT Alphaville)
• O’Shaugnessy: The Power of Habit (Yahoo Finance)
• Is the World Getting Riskier? (Chief Investment Officer)
• Have Americans really fallen out of love with driving? (Fortune)
• Why surveillance companies hate the iPhone (The Switch)
Todays WTF headline: Marijuana's Buzzkill DNA: Biotech Researcher Finds Medical Pot Laced With Feces (Bloomberg)
• Pakistan’s fight against feudalism (Al Jazeera)
• In Ferguson, Washington Post Reporter Wesley Lowery Gives Account of His Arrest (Washington Post) see also Photos of the Protests in Ferguson (Slate)
• Here Now, the 15 Most Expensive Homes for Sale in Brooklyn (Curbed)
• 12 years of data from New York City suggest stop-and-frisk wasn't that effective (WonkBlog)

What are you reading?

 

Why Emerging Markets Have Room to Grow

Source: BlackRock

Get Ready for the Shanghai Composite Break Out

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 12:00 PM PDT

 

China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an upward trend. Stephen Suttmeier, a technical research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, notes that we’ve reached the end of a five year downtrend and are set up for a breakout.

Continues here

 

 

Wrong Way Plosser

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 08:30 AM PDT

Hawks Crying Wolf:

Charles Plosser of the Philadephia Fed; if you've been following these things, you know that Plosser has been warning about imminent inflation since the beginning of the crisis. He did it in 2008; he did it in 2009; he did it in 2010; he did it in 2011; I'm getting tired here, but you can easily find him doing the same in 2012 and 2013. And he has of course been wrong all the way — but he's doing it again.

The thing about academics and ideologues is that they never seem to be willing to correct themselves, despite being obviously and utterly wrong. If I were willing to link to a certain subclass of eejit, I would [Insert Gold bug link here] explaining why hyper-inflation was immiment.

And as a reminder, please note the category is “Really, really bad calls” is filled with so much stupid it really should be allowed to become the 5oth state, taking the place of Florida, the current leader in all things dumb. (I blame the heat)

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 07:00 AM PDT

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At the very least, the buffoonish local cops there are a national embarrassment.

None of this seems to matter to Mr. Market. He continues to power on, oblivious to issues that don’t affect corporate earnings. They have, by the way, been stellar, growing at a 9 percent annual rate. Meanwhile, interest rates are still low and inflation is subdued.

Rarely have conditions for market gains been so promising at a time when investor psychology has been so negative.

Gallup reports that only 7 percent of those surveyed were aware of last year’s scorching gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. "Fewer than one in 10 aware that stocks averaged 30% increase in 2013," read one of the headlines on a report from earlier this month. More than half of those polled would put any new cash into bank accounts or CDs, eschewing equities, according to the survey.

The less interested the public seems to be in stocks, the higher they seem to go. Stephen Suttmeier, technical analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, points out that the present rally is the fifth-longest since 1928:  continues here

10 Thursday AM Reads

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 06:30 AM PDT

The endless parade of news never stops, which is why we bring you these hand-curated reads each morning (continues here):

• Vanguard takes keys to Pimco’s bond kingdom (Investment News)
• America Inc. Gets Schooled on Wages (WSJ) see also Overlooked Data Shows Japan Wages Rising (Real Time Economics)
• Why Bank of America probably won’t end up actually paying US$17B in mortgage securities settlement (Financial Post)
• Nobel economists say policy blunders pushing Europe into depression (Telegraph) see also Worse than the 1930s: Europe's recession is really a depression (WonkBlog)

Continues here

 

 

 

 

5th Longest S&P500 Streak

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 04:00 AM PDT

For data buffs: Stephen Suttmeier of BAML points put that this is the 5th-longest S&P 500 streak above the 200-day MA going back to 1928.

“The S&P 500 Index moved above its 200-day moving average on November 19, 2012 and has not closed below it on a daily basis for 21 months. The record is 30 months between 11/25/1953 and 5/23/1956.

The last time we had a streak of 21 months was between 7/27/1950 and 4/30/1952, which coincided with the S&P 500 secular bull market breakout in 1950. The current streak is part of the secular bull market breakout in April 2013. This 21-month streak for the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average is another similarity between the current secular breakout and the secular breakout from 1950.”

Source:  MLPF&S

Nicholas Felton: A Quantified Life

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 03:00 AM PDT

Mr. Felton, an information designer who used to work at Facebook, has tracked almost every aspect of his life, from the miles he's walked to the average length of his personal conversations.

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