My Sunday Washington Post Business Sectioncolumn is out. As a follow up to our previous discussion of the World's Greatest Trader®, this morning, we look at the Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer®.
As we did last time out, we assumed magical powers for our theoretical trader, giving him the ability to bottom tick the market. Surprises aplenty follow.
Here’s an excerpt from the column:
“Over the past month, we looked at how you would have fared if you were an uncanny stock picker who consistently beat the market by 30 percent or so (What if You Were the World's Greatest Trader® ? and World's Greatest Trader Revisited). As it turns out, capital gains taxes and other expenses take a giant bite. Even a very successful active trader barely keeps up with the long-term passive indexer.
This week, we consider: What if you were the World's Greatest Market Timer? Imagine: You, the individual investor, have an uncanny skill at timing markets and picking the lows. Your prescience allows you to buy near the bottom of every major crash. Anytime the market has a substantial drop, you manage to make a purchase of broad indexes at advantageous prices. Similar to the World's Greatest Trader, you set up an online account, and then you are off to the races, timing markets with the best of them.
How would you imagine a trader with these skills would do?”
The answer turns out to be rather surprising . . .
We wrestle the non stop parade of content into submission:
• No bubble to burst: U.S. student debt is not housing (Vanguard) • Why Are You Outperforming? Why Are You Underperforming? (Meb Faber) • Norway’s gargantuan sovereign wealth fund, by the numbers (Quartz) • An Unfinished Chapter at Countrywide (NYT) • The Housing Being Built in New York Doesn't Meet the Needs of New Yorkers (New York Observer) • Are One-Star Reviews for Assholes? (Priceonomics) • I will not be returning to Ferguson (Ryan Schuessler) see also Convicting Darren Wilson Will Be Basically Impossible (New Republic) • Myth #1: ISIS is crazy and irrational (Vox) • Most smartphone users download zero apps per month (Quartz) see also These are the 25 most popular mobile apps in America (Quartz) • Jeff Bridges has his own ways of navigating Hollywood and making art (WSJ)
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