The Big Picture |
- Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates?
- RWM: Open House in NYC, December 8-12
- 10 Tuesday PM Reads
- Despite Abysmal Track Records, Forecasters Keep Forecasting
- Masters in Business: Mark Cuban
- 10 Tuesday AM Reads
- DJI, Creator of the Phantom, the World’s Most Popular Drone
| Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates? Posted: 12 Nov 2014 02:00 AM PST
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| RWM: Open House in NYC, December 8-12 Posted: 11 Nov 2014 04:00 PM PST A few weeks back I asked readers “What city next?” for our regular visits with clients. A surprising number of you suggested New York City. I thought that was a fantastic idea. We have scheduled the week of December 8th for our open house. If you are interested in learning more about what we do, or want to hear frank perspectives & insights, come hear what Josh and I have to say on markets, the economy, and investing For those of you who are familiar with our investing philosophy, it is an opportunity to have a more in depth, personal conversation about your personal financial circumstances. We will meet one-on-one with prospective clients, have a meetup or two around town, and plann other events. ~~~ If you are interested in discussing about your personal financial circumstances, meeting with us, or simply hearing our views, give us a shout. Send email to Info-at-RitholtzWealth-dot-com, with the subject “NYC Open House.” Or call 212-455-9122 and ask for Erika.
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| Posted: 11 Nov 2014 02:30 PM PST My afternoon train reads:
What are you reading?
Rivals Outdo Gross in Race For Bond Cash
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| Despite Abysmal Track Records, Forecasters Keep Forecasting Posted: 11 Nov 2014 10:00 AM PST On this day in 1993, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of 10 market pundits. They had been asked when the bull market that started in 1982 would end. Most of the forecasters predicted a 10 percent market decline — hardly a bold position because 10 percent declines occur fairly often, about once a year on average. However, Joe Granville, among the most heralded market forecaster of his generation, declared that the bull run was over, and he foresaw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then approaching 3,700, declining to 2,900 by the spring of 1994. Instead, the Dow went the opposite way, rising to almost 3,800 by year-end. I was reminded of this yesterday, courtesy of this article by Bloomberg News: “Predictors of '29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession.” Regular readers might recall that I have some issues with both forecasts and forecasters. Let's get some obvious stuff out of the way first: No, the guy who made the 1929 crash prediction isn’t making a forecast. That was Jerome Levy, who no longer makes predictions (he died many years ago). Rather, this is a different firm run by his grandson. The methodology may no longer be the same, nor is the forecaster. This is the third generation of Levys making economic predictions. Who knew there was a gene for prognostication? Based upon some of the other forecasts of Levy the Younger, I can safely declare: No, there is not a gene for forecasting. Let’s start with the actual prediction: The Levy analysts envision a "65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year." Kudos for using a percentage, rather than a definitive statement, something we have discussed before (here and here). However, this is a repeat of a 2010 forecast for a 60 percent chance of a U.S. recession. At least Levy & Co. had the courtesy to wait four years before doubling down on roughly the same prediction.
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| Masters in Business: Mark Cuban Posted: 11 Nov 2014 07:30 AM PST In this week's "Masters in Business" podcast, I talk with Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, co-founder of Broadcast.com and a regular on ABC's “Shark Tank.” The self-made billionaire is outspoken about, well, everything. He sits in the stands with the fans at Mavericks games, yells at the refs and gets big fines, too. Cuban makes a dollar-for-dollar matching donation to charity for every NBA fine he pays. The fans love it. Cuban tells the story of the time he called Ed Rush, head of NBA officials, "incapable of even managing a Dairy Queen." Sensing a public-relations opportunity, a Dairy Queen franchisee challenged the Mavericks owner to manage a Dairy Queen for the day. He agreed, and when he arrived at 6:30 a.m. in the morning, there was a line around the block with people who wanted to buy an ice cream cone from the owner of the Mavericks. Cuban even got a thank-you note from Warren Buffett. (Dairy Queen is a subsidiary of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.) The far-ranging conversation covered everything from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which Cuban called "an out-of-control regulator," to marijuana, which he says should be made legal so the government can stop wasting money incarcerating pot smokers, to the NFL's Roger Goodell, who Cuban says gets paid $44 million a year to be a punching bag so the team owners don't have to be. This is a fascinating and wide-ranging interview with a brilliant and innovative investor. You can download the podcast here or on iTunes, or stream it on SoundCloud. All of the prior podcasts are on Apple iTunes. Next week, we speak with Jack Rivkin, former head of research at Lehman Brothers, former chief investment officer at Neuberger Berman, and now CIO at Altegris.
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| Posted: 11 Nov 2014 06:00 AM PST Good Euro morning. There seems to be no bid these days in Oil or Gold, a condition which has to end eventually. Oh, and train reads:
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| DJI, Creator of the Phantom, the World’s Most Popular Drone Posted: 11 Nov 2014 03:30 AM PST DJI CEO Frank Wang, creator of the Phantom drone, speaks from the company’s Shenzhen, China headquarters about DJI’s start and the future of unmanned aircraft. What’s Next for the Creator of the Phantom Drone? See also |
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