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Saturday, June 1, 2013

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Best New TV Show of 2013: Maron

Posted: 31 May 2013 04:15 PM PDT

Maron

 

I do a decent amount of flying for work. One of the things that passes the time on flights has been Marc Maron’s WTF Podcast. When I have 45 minutes to kill — too short for a movie but when I am too beat to read a book — its the perfect slice of distracting entertainment.

What I really love about the podcast is that it doesn’t try to do comedy, it is instead about the craft of comedy. Maron is a cantankerous self-destructive hyper-mouthed crank who interviews the many comedians he has become acquainted with from over his 30 or so years on the road as a stand up. The results are these odd, funny vignettes, filled with moments of surprising wisdom and brutal honesty.

Over the past few years, I found them charming and addictive.

Apparently, so have other people. The WTF podcast first developed a cult following, then moved some way into the mainstream — if a self loathing, recovering doper, comedian who lives with too many cats can be considered mainstream. There are now nearly 400 episodes, an app, and a huge fanbase.

All of this led to the Independent Film Channel tagging the WTF podcaster to do a series, loosely based on Maron’s own life. If you listen to the podcast the show is instantly recognizable as part garage-based broadcast, part sitcom, and part something else entirely.

It has quickly become my favorite show of 2013.

It reminds me of Louie, and to a lesser degree Curb Your Enthusiasm. Not as absurd as HBO-based Curb, with a touch less joy (if that’s the right word) than Louie (which is found on FX Network).

Maron uses the podcast as a similar device to the stand up routines in Louie (which uses them much more effectively than NBC network-based Seinfeld ever did). Like Louie, there is a raw honesty here that cannot be faked. Unlike that show, it seems that the podcasts Maron is doing is really actually working out his stream of consciousness in front of the viewer. My favorite moments are his genuine insights into himself and the hard earned wisdom he learns. Maron seems to be genuinely surprised by his own occasional  self-enlightenment.

The shows tagline is “He has issues; sharing is not one of them.” This is one of those rare corporate promotional things where the promo tagline is dead on.

Most of the first four episodes of Season 1 are online.

Enjoy . . .

 
 
Maron on Independent Film Channel Friday nights at 10pm

WTF Podcast

Maron on Twitter

 
 

Previously:
My Seinfeld Year  (February 21st, 2012)

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (May 31, 2013)

Posted: 31 May 2013 12:30 PM PDT

Succinct Summations week ending May 31, 2013.

Positives:

1. 10-Year treasuries saw the 4th largest % increase in 50 years, signaling healing in the economy and a demand for capital.
2. 20-city S&P Case-Shiller house price index for March rose 10.87% v expectations of a 10.2% rise. This is the fastest increase since April 2006.
3. Consumer confidence in May rose to 76.2 v expectations of 71, the highest level in over 5 years.
4. Chicago PMI increased to 58.7 in May, surging ~20% m/o/m, the highest reading in over a year and the biggest increase in 30 years.
5. Utilities gave up 8% in May while Financials gained 7.5% and Tech and Energy each added ~4%, as .
6. The Dow Jones gained 3.2% for the month of May, a year ago it lose 6.2% in the same month.

Negatives:

1. 10-Year treasuries saw the 4th largest % increase in 50 years, a sign that major bond holders are sellers and that the Fed may be tapering
2. The S&P 500 had consecutive lower weeks for the first time since November.
3. Japan's Nikkei snaps 9 month winning streak in May.
4. Pending home sales increased 0.3% m/o/m in April v expectations of +1.5%.
5. U.S. consumer spending fell 0.2% in April v expectations of a -0.1% decline.
6. Personal income comes in flat m/o/m v expectations of a 0.1% increase.
7. Initial jobless claims rise to 354k v expectations of 340k
8. U.S. Q1 GDP rose at an annualized rate of 2.4% v expectations of 2.5%.
9. May Richmond Fed manufacturing comes in at -2 v -4 expected, better than awful.

Thanks, Bat!

Income Growth This Cycle Is Unimpressive

Posted: 31 May 2013 11:55 AM PDT

income0513
Source:  Real Time Economics

 

 

As the chart above shows, this is not an especially impressive recovery in terms of Real Disposable Income.

As we have discussed, this is not your typical post-recession recovery — it is a post credit-crisis recovery, and thats why metrics such as GDP,  Job creation, wages and even inflation remain sub-par.

(Not that this has anything to do with the equity markets!)

Risk Aversion Puts Hedge Funds Behind S&P 500

Posted: 31 May 2013 08:30 AM PDT

Click to enlarge
Chart

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

from David Wilson of Bloomberg via the terminal:

Hedge funds are paying a price for being too hesitant to buy stocks in the midst of a four-year bull market, according to Barry Ritholtz, FusionIQ's chief executive officer.

As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, Hedge Fund Research Inc.'s broadest fund index fell out of sync with the Standard & Poor's
500 Index in 2011 and has yet to recover. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index had a 4.8 percent advance for the year through last week, while the S&P 500 was 16 percent higher.

Many fund managers have been "overly timid and suffering from risk aversion" because of the magnitude of the losses that preceded the current advance, Ritholtz said yesterday during an interview. The S&P 500 tumbled 57 percent from its October 2007 high to its March 2009 low.

Federal Reserve policy has worked against managers with a macro strategy, which focuses on political and economic events, he said. The central bank is conducting its third round of bond purchases, or quantitative easing, and has held its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008.

"This has been an impossible macro environment to trade unless your macro theme has been Fed, Fed, Fed and you buy everything you can," said Ritholtz, based in New York. He serves as his firm's director of equity research.

The HFRX Macro/CTA Index was 0.2 percent higher for the year as of last week after falling for four years in a row. The indicator reflects the performance of macro funds and commodity trading advisers, which focus on buying and selling futures, options and other types of contracts.

 

Source:
David Wilson
Bloomberg, May 30, 2013

 

Update: Hey, its now at Bloomberg.com

10 Friday AM Reads

Posted: 31 May 2013 07:00 AM PDT

My morning end of week, end of month reads:

• Keynes Answers His Critics (Forbes)
• Why TV Has Resisted Disruption (stratechery) see also Fan TV revealed: is this the set-top box we've been waiting for? (The Verge)
• The New R&D: Repurchases and Dividends (The Reformed Broker)
• And the Winner Is … the Euro? (Moneybeat) see also Emerging-Market FX Gets Ugly. Very Ugly. (Moneybeat)
• Paul Volcker on good governance, Abenomics and why he won't serve on any more commissions (Wonkblog)
Dan Gross: Banks Are Thriving Despite Regulations Thanks to Economic Growth (The Daily Beast)
• The Fed's been keeping the economy afloat. That's the problem. (Wonkblog) see also Households Still Haven't Rebuilt Lost Wealth (Real Time Economics)
• Ex-Microsoft manager plans to create first U.S. marijuana brand (Reuters)
• Architectural Heights of Fancy (NYT)
• Google Gets Ready for Its Close-Up (WSJ)

What are you reading?

 

Swoon in Bonds Puts Eye on Fed
Chart
Source: WSJ

Sales Training Versus Mentoring/Industry Knowledge

Posted: 31 May 2013 04:30 AM PDT

Its a steamy summer Friday, I got home very late last night, so this morning’s Friday philosophy will be brief:

I keep reading about graduates trying to get into Wall Street training programs. I suspect most people do not understand what this means. A brief explanatory:

For the new rank and file hires at the major wire houses, this essentially amounts to a major sales training program. Its all about smiling and dialing, networking, becoming a great salesperson. Sure, there is some “product” training, but once we are talking about product the investor is screwed, a field of fees, waiting to be harvested. And so it is with the trainees, many of whom will fail out of the program, after generating reams of leads, prospects and new accounts for the brokers who are ostensibly training them (Wall Street Eats its Young). They are more cannon fodder than a human resource.

What I don’t see much of is a mentoring of the next generation of market professionals to become more than cogs in a giant sales organization. That what it is that they are selling are financial services is nearly irrelevant — other than the specific jargon they must learn to become better sales drones.

This is not the Street I grew up on. Mentoring seemed to be much bigger organizationally than I see today.

Fortunately, it has been replaced by a variety of other sources. Companies have moved much of their best research out from behind firewalls (its now considered “marketing” not sales prduct); Blogs from knowledgeable and experienced pros — hopefully you consider people like me and Josh in that category — as well as communities such as Stocktwits and Minyanville; there are also a countless number of enormously talented and generous people who share their knowledge over Twitter.

Still, I fear something is getting lost in the process. Our modern HFT driven financial industry at times seems bloodless. (I guess algos don’t need mentoring). The floor of the Exchange used to be a finishing school, watering holes were once educational seminars, and major conferences weren’t always media events –rather, they were places where people could learn and expand their knowledge base and skill sets and networks as opposed to being mere backdrops for 3 minute media hits.

This is on my mind in part due to the spate of articles on Wall Street hiring, recruiting, and training. That plus a rescheduled lunch with a friend who used to be the former head of a training program for one of the biggest Wall St iBanks HQ’d in NYC.

My own experiences were very different. I feel like I caught the tail end of a different era. I was mentored by a series of people over the years: First Bill Baker the head trader who trained me as a green newbie (and absorbed all of my initial losses); Guy Ortmann, who introduced me to technical analysis and had me take the TA course with Ralph Acampora; then a long list of people whose advice and counsel and examples helped me learn a great deal: Jeremy Grantham, Robert Shiller, Ned Davis, James Montier, David Kotok, Doug Kass, Art Cashin, Paul Desmond, Don Hays, Bill Black, Ed Easterling, Jim Cramer, Mebane Faber, Herb Greenberg, and on and on the list goes.

From these people I learned how to think about thinking, how to write and argue, how to present myself as a person. Some merely set examples; others literally tutored me.

All of which leads to me to one question: How are you being trained?

 

Previously:
Advice to a Young Market Participant (March 5th, 2010)

Hedge Funds on Sale: Only $1,000 to Join

Posted: 31 May 2013 03:00 AM PDT

On today’s “Chart Attack,” Fusion IQ CEO and Director of Research Barry Ritholtz and Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson look at hedge fund performance on Bloomberg

The Mirage of Hedge Funds

(Source: Bloomberg, May 29, 2013) 4:51

~~~

Fusion IQ’s Barry Ritholz and Bloomberg’s Jason Kelly discuss investing in hedge funds with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”

Hedge Funds on Sale: Only $1,000 to Join

(Source: Bloomberg, May 29, 2013) 6:09

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