The Big Picture

---

• How Changes in Immigration Policy Might Affect the Federal Budget
• When Does a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet Require Fiscal Support?
• White House: Fox Is Not a News Organization
• Apple’s Q Reveals the Perils of Earnings Predictions
• The Year in VIX and Volatility
• 10 Wednesday AM Reads
• Spectrum of Pain from Oil Price Decline

How Changes in Immigration Policy Might Affect the Federal Budget Posted: 29 Jan 2015 02:00 AM PST

When Does a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet Require Fiscal Support? Posted: 29 Jan 2015 02:00 AM PST

White House: Fox Is Not a News Organization Posted: 28 Jan 2015 05:00 PM PST Shepard Smith explains: "I sat next to Brian Williams, and we all have these place cards and his said, 'Brian Williams, NBC News.' And across from me was David Muir, the new guy on ABC. It said, 'David Muir, ABC News.' And then, over next to the president, was Scott Pelley, and it said, 'Scott Pelley, ABC News." "And I looked at mine, and it doesn't say anything about news. It just says, 'Fox.' And I looked at Bret Baier's and it said, 'Bret Baier, Fox.' But all the rest of them got 'news.' I mean, I don't care — lunch was great." -Inquistr This is pretty hilarious, because its true. My solution was somewhat different: Rather than omit the word News, I put the word in quotes, thusly: Starting today, anytime I write the words “Fox News” I will, for accuracy’s sake, put the word NEWS in its own quotes, like this: Fox “News” — Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) January 13, 2015   Its more aggressive, less passive. Kudos to Shepard Smith, for keeping it classy. And kudos to the White House, for speaking the truth.   Video after the jump What happens to you when you are not a news organization

Apple’s Q Reveals the Perils of Earnings Predictions Posted: 28 Jan 2015 12:00 PM PST Apple’s first-quarter earnings were blow-out numbers. Far beyond what anyone forecast, the figures show Apple arguably had the single-greatest quarterly performance in U.S. corporate history. A quick overview: Apple's net profit of $18 billion is an astonishing gain of 38 percent over the already-huge $13.1 billion in the same quarter last year. (So much for the law of large numbers.) Earnings per share rose 48 percent on revenue of $74.6 billion, up a staggering 30 percent. How did Apple rack up such gigantic sales numbers? It begins with the company's flagship product, the iPhone. It sold an astonishing 74.5 million of them in the quarter, a gain of 46 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. What’s more, the phones sold for an average of $687. (The Wall Street Journal calculated that Apple sold 34,000 phones an hour, 24/7.) Revenue in China rose 70 percent to $16.1 billion, making it Apple's third-largest market by sales, after the U.S. and Europe. In the near future, China will probably overtake Europe as Apple's second-biggest market. At the risk of extrapolating to infinity, it isn’t hard to imagine the day when China also surpasses the U.S. as Apple's biggest market. The rest of the numbers were, by all accounts, stupendous, enormous, mind-blowing, record-breaking. Yet it seems analysts were, once again, blindsided by the data. How is it even remotely possible that Wall Street analysts have no idea what the biggest company in the world is doing? Continues here

The Year in VIX and Volatility Posted: 28 Jan 2015 09:00 AM PST Terrific graphic from Bill Luby at VIX and More looking at the various potential drivers of volatility:   click for monster chart Source: VIX and More

10 Wednesday AM Reads Posted: 28 Jan 2015 05:30 AM PST We survived the snowpacalypse, with both electricity and internet access intact. Hence, our free range morning train reads: • Apple's Earnings: The Staggering Numbers (WSJ) • Strong Dollar Squeezes U.S. Firms (WSJ) see also U.S. Strengths Buoy Consumers but Hurt Corporations With Business Abroad (Dealbook) • A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Joel Greenblatt about Value Investing (25iq) • The new phase of deflation fear and headline noise is actually a good thing for markets (TRB) • Open letter to the German readers: That which you were never told about Greece (Syriza) Continues here

Spectrum of Pain from Oil Price Decline Posted: 28 Jan 2015 03:30 AM PST With the price of crude oil plummeting, why some countries are faring much better than others. Oil Prices' 'Spectrum of Pain'

You are subscribed to email updates from The Big Picture To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States

.