The Big Picture

---

• Another Good 1929 Call . . .
• Buying and Selling: Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and the US corporate income tax
• Is a Strong Dollar Good for the U.S. Economy?
• NASA is Building a Huge Rocket — But to Where?
• The Global Flow of People
• Bear Markets Happen
• The Fed’s Hidden Message Contained Within the Dots . . .
• 10 Wednesday AM Reads

Another Good 1929 Call . . . Posted: 19 Mar 2015 03:30 AM PDT Sometimes you have to diary these things for a few years and revisit them: Markets Showing ‘Extreme Similarities’ With 1929 Crash: Pro BC.com Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 | 8:53 AM ET Investors should remain on the sidelines and wait for a market correction as a 4-year rebound comes to an end, Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist at SignalPro said on Tuesday. Jadeja said the current market cycle showed “extreme similarities” with the 1930s. “If you take a look at the patterns which repeat themselves through the years, they are re-emerging. So what it’s suggesting is: it isn’t all good out there,” he said.   When this forecast was made, the S&P500 was at 12% lower. Add in 2 years of dividends, and this money-losing lame-brained prediction cost anyone who followed it about 16%.

Buying and Selling: Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and the US corporate income tax Posted: 19 Mar 2015 02:00 AM PDT

Is a Strong Dollar Good for the U.S. Economy? Posted: 18 Mar 2015 10:30 PM PDT

NASA is Building a Huge Rocket — But to Where? Posted: 18 Mar 2015 02:30 PM PDT Source: Bloomberg   continues after the jump   Building America's Next Heavy-Lift Launch Vehicle

The Global Flow of People Posted: 18 Mar 2015 01:00 PM PDT Click for an interactive graphic. Source: Global Migration

Bear Markets Happen Posted: 18 Mar 2015 10:00 AM PDT Source: WSJ

The Fed’s Hidden Message Contained Within the Dots . . . Posted: 18 Mar 2015 07:30 AM PDT Of all the maddening things about this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the single most annoying is the hoopla surrounding the so-called dot plot. It even has its own Twitter hashtag: #Dotplot. The dot plot is a chart that shows the expectations of each FOMC member — absent their names — for where they believe the central bank’s overnight lending rate will be in the future. Here’s a recent example: Source: Federal Reserve   That there were four members of the FOMC who thought at the end of 2014 that Fed rates would be at 2 percent by 2015 is, well, kind of adorable. Deeply misguided, totally wrong, but still cute in a wonky way. The problem with this dot-plot chart is that it reflects a three-factor forecast: – Each FOMC member's expectations of the state of the economy in both the near and distant future. – How each member believes they will vote on rates in light of that future economy. – And what the consensus of the FOMC will be on rates in the future.   Continues here

10 Wednesday AM Reads Posted: 18 Mar 2015 04:13 AM PDT Its day 2 of the FOMC meeting, and apparently, I am one of the few on this planet who believe keeping or removing the word “patient” is totally irrelevant. But your patience will be rewarded with our midweek morning train reads: • The Fuzzy, Insane Math That’s Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies (Bloomberg) see also Mind Games That Can Kill Investors (Stock Charts) • Stock Performance Before, During & After Recessions (A Wealth of Common Sense) • Commodities two-fer: …..-Gold Futures Fall to Four-Month Low Ahead of FOMC Meeting (WSJ) …..-U.S. Oil Prices at Six-Year Low on Storage Concerns (WSJ) • 86% of active managers failed to beat market in 2014 (CNN Money) • The dollar is rising faster than any time in the last 40 years (Washington Post) see also Rising Dollar Is Creating Trouble for Emerging Economies (Upshot) Continues here

You are subscribed to email updates from The Big Picture To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States

.