The Big Picture

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• 10 Weekend Reads
• Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy
• Sarah McLachlan at Kings Theatre 3.14.15
• Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.20.15
• Cyclical Bear or Secular Bull Market ?
• Online Shopping Trends
• 10 Friday AM Reads

10 Weekend Reads Posted: 21 Mar 2015 03:30 AM PDT Spring has Sprung! Before you go out to enjoy that delightful warmer weather, pour yourself a hot mug of Major Dickason’s Blend, and enjoy these longer form weekend reads: • Disney’s $1 Billion Bet on a Magical Wristband (Wired) • A Sucker Is Optimized Every Minute (NY Times) • Funds Run by Robots Now Account for $400 Billion (Bloomberg) • Inside Graphene City, Birthplace of a Wonder Material (Vice) • How luck works (Aeon) • The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35 (John Q. Public) see also DOT&E Report: The F-35 Is Not Ready for IOC and Won’t Be Any Time Soon (Pogo) • 26 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better (Vox) • The Hunting of Billie Holiday: How Lady Day found herself in the middle of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics' early fight for survival. (Politico) • Gone in 30 Seconds: Motorcycle Thieves, Stunt Riders, and One Wild CHP Sting (Los Angeles Magazine) • The Irrationality of Alcoholics Anonymous: Its faith-based 12-step program dominates, but the central tenets of AA doctrine have been debunked (The Atlantic) Checkout our Masters in Business interview this week with Mebane Faber of Cambria investments.     Venture Capital “First-Funding” Density Source: Brookings

Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy Posted: 21 Mar 2015 02:00 AM PDT Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy Jason Bram and James Orr Liberty Street Economics, March 20, 2015       Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50 states and many metropolitan areas, the monthly figures are estimated based on a sample of firms. The annual revisions are based on an almost complete count of workers (now available up through mid-2014) from the records of the unemployment insurance system and re-estimated data for the remainder of the year. In this post, we briefly summarize the mixed but mostly stronger performance in the region in 2014 indicated by these employment revisions. We highlight the most pronounced changes across our District—highlighted by New York City's even stronger-looking boom—using the percentage change in total employment from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014 as the metric. New York State Since late 2009, when statewide employment began to recover, job growth across the Empire State has kept pace with that of the United States, growing at an average annual rate of 1½ to 2 percent. The preliminary data for 2014 had indicated some slowing in growth, but the recent revisions point to continued sturdy job creation. And the most noteworthy upward revisions accrued to what was already the strongest local economy in the state: New York City. This makes 2014 the eighth straight year in which the city's job growth rate has surpassed the nation's—an unprecedented phenomenon given that, prior to 2007, the city only rarely even matched the nation in job creation. A number of upstate metro areas also saw upward revisions for 2014—most notably, Buffalo and Rochester—but none tallied anywhere near the roughly 3 percent revised job growth seen in New York City. One of the few areas to see a downward revision was Long Island, though employment trends there remain favorable. New Jersey In New Jersey, job counts have yet to fully recover to pre-recession levels, but the employment revisions paint a somewhat brighter picture of recent trends. Whereas the preliminary numbers showed job growth stalling out in the latter part of 2014, the new numbers show job creation continuing at a moderate pace through the end of the year. Still, as shown in the chart below, total employment expanded by less than 1 percent from late 2013 to late 2014—less than half the nationwide pace. Within the state, the (newly designated) Middlesex-Monmouth-Ocean division was one of the stronger areas in terms of job growth—possibly a sign that much of the Jersey shore, hard hit two-and-a-half years ago by Sandy, is now seeing more of a bounce-back. Statewide, there was an exceptionally large upward revision in construction employment. Elsewhere in the Second District The Second Federal Reserve District also includes Fairfield County (Connecticut), as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In Fairfield County, revisions were fairly minor; as in the preliminary data, job growth was modest through much of 2014 but picked up noticeably toward the end of the year. In Puerto Rico, the level of employment was revised downward for all of 2014. A previously reported pickup in employment at the end of 2013 was revised away, but trends since then look about the same as they did before the revision: employment has been essentially flat since last summer, with some pickup in the private sector offset by a continued downward drift in the public sector. Finally, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, which have been in an economic slump since around 2006, the revisions were modest and show that the economy has leveled off but has yet to show any signs of a meaningful rebound. Disclaimer The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. Jason Bram is a research officer in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Research and Statistics Group. James Orr is a vice president in the Bank's Research and Statistics Group. Posted by Blog Author at 07:00:00 AM in Regional Analysis

Sarah McLachlan at Kings Theatre 3.14.15 Posted: 20 Mar 2015 05:00 PM PDT Last week we saw Sarah McLachlan setlist Kings Theatre, Brooklyn; the show was as a delightful as she is. A few snaps from the show and the setlist are below, but be sure to check out the pictures of the newly renovated 1929 Kings theater after the jump — its spectacular.     Source:  Setlist.fm     Source: NY Times   Source: NY Post

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.20.15 Posted: 20 Mar 2015 01:00 PM PDT Succinct Summations for the week ending March 20th: Positives: 1. The S&P 500 had its first positive week since mid-February 2. The UK FTSE crossed 7,000 for the first time ever 3. Building permits rose 3% vs an expected rise of 0.5%. 4. The Fed removed "patient" and US stocks rose 1.2% 5. The S&P 500 closed up 0.98%, its strongest Friday since January 16th. 6. NASDAQ had its first weekly close above 5000 since 2000. Negatives: 1. Housing starts fell 17% to an annualized pace of 987k vs expectations for a 2.4% fall and 1.04mm homes. 2. Empire State factory index came in at 6.9, vs expectations of 8 and down from 7.8 previously. 3. The Philly Fed index came in at 5.0 vs expectations of 7. 4. The ten-year yield is back below 2% 5. Mortgage applications fell 2% w/o/w. Refi applications fell 5%. 6. Industrial production rose 0.1% m/o/m vs expectations of a 0.3% rise.

Cyclical Bear or Secular Bull Market ? Posted: 20 Mar 2015 09:00 AM PDT When discussing bull and bear markets, it sometimes helps to think of them as coming in two distinct flavors: Short-term cyclical markets and long-term secular ones. Knowing one from the other isn’t always easy. A number of  veteran market observers such as Raymond James’s Jeffrey Saut, technician Ralph Acampora, strategist Laszlo Birinyi and market historians Jeff and Yale Hirsch have made the argument that U.S. markets in 2013 entered a new secular bull market, much like the one that began in 1982. The 1982 secular bull market was preceded and followed by secular bear markets that featured lots of sharp rallies and sell offs, but netted investors nothing after more than a decade. Long-term secular markets tend to be driven by earnings, valuations and trend. Others, such as Steve Leuthold of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management or Joseph Calhoun of Alhambra Investment Partners, disagree. They either find the data inconclusive if this is a secular market of any kind, or believe valuations don’t suggest typical secular-market returns. In other words, the stock-market gains since 2009 might represent nothing more than a big cyclical bull-market rally.   Continues here

Online Shopping Trends Posted: 20 Mar 2015 06:00 AM PDT Click for complete infographic   Click for ginormous graphic Source: Options

10 Friday AM Reads Posted: 20 Mar 2015 04:30 AM PDT Good Friday morning. That week went by quickly. Finish it up with our hand curated morning train reads: • The Hierarchy of Alpha (CIO) • Housel: What’s Wrong With Finance (Fool) • American companies are running out of places to stash their insane pile of cash (Quartz) • Letter From Berlin: Why Are the Germans So Hellbent on Austerity? (The Nation) see also How likely are capital controls in Greece? (Open Europe) • A $250,000 Tour With One Aim: Get Chinese to Buy a Home (Bloomberg) Continues here

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