The Big Picture |
- 10 Twitter Do’s and Don’t
- Rome
- Tool’s Lesson on Fibonacci: Think ‘Laterally’
- Mistakenly
- Income Taxes: % of Households Filing (1913-2008)
- The Money Network
- Dot-com Boom, Then And Now
- 2012 GT500 Super Snake: 800 HP
- Must Read: Apropos of Everything
- Apropos of Everything
| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 02:30 PM PDT I am not the mayor of Twitter, but I have been doing social media long enough to have some thoughts that might be worth sharing. Please take this as you will. I have been having some fun playing on the Twitter merry go round — its a great outlet for those random thoughts and passing links that are not meaty enough for the blog, or too juicy to way until the next “reads” post. I love the way ideas develop sua sponte on the Tweetstream; the last thing it needs are hard and fast rules. But lately, some of the interactions have become shall-we-say-a-tad tedious. So consider these guidelines suggested parameters — nothing dictatorial (like these) — just some basic “Twitterquette” that will work to everyone’s deep and mutual satisfaction (deep sigh, pause, blows cigarette smoke towards ceiling). For lack of a better title, here are some of my own personal rules for the Tweeting — follow them or don’t at your own discretion:
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| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 01:00 PM PDT Rome http://www.cumber.com April 6, 2011 Wednesday, 1:30 PM (Rome Time) ~~~ The Forum Hotel in Rome is a magnificent spot, with a rooftop restaurant on the fifth floor. From it, you can see antiquity. At your far right, the columns attack the sky, and the ancient markings go to the time of Emperor Julius Caesar. On your left is the Coliseum. In between are tons of rocks. If rocks could tell stories, they would talk about the decline and fall of this empire. They would talk about the period in which Rome dominated the world in commerce, in which its military might was unchallenged, and in which its currency was respected. The rocks would also talk about the debasement of the currency, the demise of the society, and the way in which Rome ultimately met its end. Professor Paul Kennedy at Yale University wrote a book entitled The Decline and Fall of the Great Powers. In it he describes what happens to societies over time. How they arise, have their fabric rent, and end in tatters. Kennedy's book is a historical perspective. It doesn't have to be a forecast for our future, but many think it is. We meet here in Rome; the first Global Interdependence Center event is a dinner this evening. We assemble tomorrow and Friday in conferences and discussions. We will talk about sovereign debt and how it should be handled. What are the implications? How do you assess and rate it? On the plane, Sean Egan and I had a brief discussion about the rating agencies and their pitfalls. Sean was one of the early independent parties to warn about European sovereign debt. He has made his reputation by sponsoring the notion that rating authorities should not be paid by the issuers of bonds. He believes some other method is needed to accomplish the independent perspective that credit research requires. In the lobby of the hotel, we conversed with Timo Tyrväinen, Chief Economist at Aktia Savings Bank in Finland, and Paul McCulley, now Chairman of the Society of Fellows of the Global Interdependence Center, and formerly a substantial and accomplished portfolio manager and economist with PIMCO. With us also was Michael Drury, Chief Economist of McVean Trading, a commodities firm located in Memphis. Michael and I discussed how his firm's view of the commodities world is requiring him to be intensely involved globally. Adolfo Laurenti, Deputy Chief Economist with Mesirow Financial in Chicago, walked through the lobby. We exchanged a quick hello and talked briefly about the world, as Adolfo was running off to a meeting. Many others are here; the discussions tomorrow will involve over one hundred people in presentations and panels. We will examine what Libya, oil, and $120 Brent crude mean for the Eurozone and Italy. We will talk about business opportunities in Italy. We will consider the interface between independent businesses in the US and their counterparts in Europe. We will discuss central banking policies. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandy Pianalto is here as a member of our delegation. We look forward to her remarks. We will also hear from a counterparty from the Bank of Italy. It's beautiful in Rome today. The temperature is in the low 70s, partly cloudy with a slight breeze. The lunch on the roof of the Forum Hotel is delicious and pleasant. A local red wine accompanies the wonderful repast. The global problems are huge. The complexity is enormous. They run from Japan to Libya to Bahrain to Rome, and for us in the investment advisory business they are very much dominated by the circus we watch in Washington. Ciao! ~~~ David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer http://www.cumber.com |
| Tool’s Lesson on Fibonacci: Think ‘Laterally’ Posted: 07 Apr 2011 12:16 PM PDT This was originally posted by Kent Thune at The Financial Philosopher. Whether you are an investment trader, a music fan, a mathematician, a curious observer wishing to learn more about human nature, or any combination thereof, you will appreciate this lesson on the Fibonacci Sequence (more on this after the YouTube link): The video, created by a college student to help explain the Fibonacci sequence, features images of space from the Hubble Telescope and music from the cerebral and progressive hard rock band Tool. What makes the video and song incredibly compelling is the lyrics, which teach a lesson on pattern recognition. For those non-traders and non-mathematicians out there, a Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where, after two starting values, each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. For example, the number sequence 2, 3, 5, 8 and 13 are a Fibonacci sequence (2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13, and so on). Making the video and song more interesting is that the cadence of the lyrics (number of syllables of succeeding verses) follows a Fibonacci sequence. What’s more, the meaning and lesson of the lyrics implies that humans are hopelessly addicted to looking for patterns everywhere they turn: The “over-thinking” and “over-analyzing,” as the lyrics suggest, have an effect of dulling intuitive thought and often results in missed opportunities. Pattern Recognition: Strength, Weakness or Both? Philosopher and mathematician, T.L. Fine, once said, “A keen eye for pattern will find it anywhere.” This profound statement is neither a compliment nor an affront to humankind but it suggests that a fundamental awareness of the human tendency for pattern recognition allows for a healthy balance of intuitive thought and science. Pattern recognition is a means of making sense of randomness. This search for understanding, which is rooted in the desire for control and safety, can be self-defeating. Wanting to find patterns can be considered thinking “inside the box,” but the answers are not always in the box. Additionally, being comfortable without having answers can often open doors to new ideas, new opportunities and success. Therefore asking questions is more important than having answers. As 19th century philosopher and spiritual leader Jiddu Krishnamurti once said, “Freedom from the desire for an answer is essential to the understanding of a problem.” Balance Linear And Lateral: Seek But Remain Open to Discovery Returning to the message within the Tool song, aptly named Lateralus, too many people think and live linearly (in straight lines, black and white, inside the box), whereas thinking and living laterally (randomness, color, outside the box)–embracing the unknown–is healthy. Perhaps the wisest solution is to balance the linear with the lateral. There is no stopping your nature to seek and find patterns; and to eliminate this nature is nothing less than attempting to become something other than a human being. Just be aware of your nature, and its potential limitations, and you’ll open doors to intuitive thought–expand beyond the narrow-minded linear thought–balance responsibility with adventure–seek but remain open to discovery. ——————————————————————- Kent Thune is an investment adviser, free-lance writer and blog author of The Financial Philosopher, where his philosophical musings guide readers to think independently and to place “meaning before money, purpose before planning.”
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| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 11:30 AM PDT I have this print by Hugh McLeod — Mistakenly — hanging in my office. It was on my business card for several years (2005-08). Every time I would do a presentation on the dangers of the Credit bubble and housing boom, some manager would say: “But the market keeps going higher — why should we avoid banks or home builders?” Sure its going higher — that is what blow off tops are about! But we could see a 30, 40 even 50% crash when the bottom falls out. Fair value on the Dow is only 9800, and the panic once we break thru 10,000 could send it down another 3000 points. “Impossible! Never gonna happen.” Hence, the card.
Via Gaping Void |
| Income Taxes: % of Households Filing (1913-2008) Posted: 07 Apr 2011 08:30 AM PDT Tax day is a week away — so its apropos to look at this chart, via Visualizing Economics, showing the % households that have paid income taxes since they began: > Percent of Households Filing: 1913-2008click for larger graphic |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 07:22 AM PDT Awesome graphic via the NYT’s Dealbook on Silicon Valley The Money Network: > click for full size graphic (PDF here) > Source: |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 07:12 AM PDT As multibillion-dollar valuations for marquee-name social-media companies like Facebook and Groupon become the norm, echoes of the dot-com boom – and subsequent bust – reverberate among investors. via NYT Video |
| 2012 GT500 Super Snake: 800 HP Posted: 07 Apr 2011 06:00 AM PDT Shelby will unveil an 800 horsepower 2012 GT500 Super Snake at the New York Auto Show — for under $100,000:
More pics at Mustangs Daily > Source: |
| Must Read: Apropos of Everything Posted: 07 Apr 2011 05:11 AM PDT This morning’s must read is a long piece by Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance of QB Partners. It is a magnum opus covering the Fed’s impact on the Dollar, the danger of Central Banks, and why the economy still has not recovered from the economic crisis. It also makes out the bull case for gold — an argument Brodsky has been making for the past 7 years or so.
Thank me later . . . |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2011 05:07 AM PDT Paul Brodsky & Lee Quaintance run QB Partners, a private macro-oriented investment fund based in New York. QBAMCO – Apropos of Everything I |
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