The Big Picture |
- How Has Cloud Computing Changed Business?
- Gold’s Slide Continues
- The Most Viral Ad of 2011
- Unconstitutional SOPA Would “Criminalize” Internet
- Holiday Gifts for Traders
- 10 Thursday PM Reads
- BNN Appearance
- Amazon vs The World
- Griess: Use Gold’s 300 Day Moving Average
- Is The Euro On The Brink Of Collapse?
| How Has Cloud Computing Changed Business? Posted: 16 Dec 2011 02:00 AM PST |
| Posted: 16 Dec 2011 01:30 AM PST Click to enlarge: MarketWatch – Gold quits 200-day average, first since 2009 Gold's recent selloff pushed the precious metal through its 200-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 2009 early Wednesday. That's usually a bad sign for an asset, as these moving averages are used to even out daily blips and signal a shift in a long-term trend…Bespoke Investment Group notes: If it closes below $1,612.80 on Wednesday the commodity will end what has been the longest streak of consecutive closes above its 200-day moving average since at least 1975. After rallying nearly 125% since the start of the current streak to its highs earlier in the year, gold has now declined by 16% and is up 88% since the current streak began. MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – Will Gold's Pain Be the Stock Market's Gain? The current selloff in gold prices looks like the real thing, and the safe-haven metal's technical behavior relative to stocks suggests the breakdown could eventually prove to be a boon for Wall Street. The SPDR Gold Shares Trust exchange traded fund slid below the 200-day simple moving average on Tuesday, which many view as a dividing line between long-term uptrends and downtrends, for the first time since January 2009. That by itself suggests this decline is different than the other pullbacks of more than 10% that have occurred since then. But if that's not enough, those previous pullbacks–starting in February 2009, December 2009 and September 2011–followed periods of sharp increases in short interest in the GLD. This time, GLD short interest as of Nov. 30 settlement dropped 31% in two weeks to a nine-month low. And Tom McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, also noted that one-month borrowing rates for gold have increased to the highest spread over one-month LIBOR in the 22-year history of gold lease rate data. This means it has become as expensive as ever to borrow gold to short it, meaning there isn't much left in the market except long positions. When bulls look around and see nothing but other bulls, they tend to get antsy enough to leave the party. The Financial Times – Gold's stellar status brought to earth When it comes to investment safety, gold has near-mythical status. Sadly, it has repeatedly turned out to be a myth that gold holds its value during periods of panic… Gold is meant to be a haven, and in periods of mild fear it does rather well. This is not mild fear. The euro tumbled below $1.30 for the first time since January, as Italian bond yields rose further and traders realised last week's treaty was far from a done deal. But just as in 2008, when times get really tough, investors prefer cash to gold – and dollar cash at that. Goldbugs like to treat gold as a currency, and its price as an exchange rate. On that basis, gold fell against the dollar, as investors decided the greenback is safer in times of crisis. Zero Hedge (Blog) – About Gold And The 200 DMA Many are doing their damnedest Ph.D.-best to somehow fuse economic theory and technical charting, and state that a breach of the 200 DMA in gold is indicative of imminent price collapse. And then there are facts. Such as this nugget from Stone McCarthy which looks at previous episodes of the 200 DMA breach and concludes based on severity of trendline penetration compared to average, that "this is just one reason we see strong potential for a rebound as participants reduce short exposure." So much for technicals. Full note from SMRA: For the first time since January 2009, gold closed below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday. Today's Chart of the Day puts Wednesday's -2.8% violation of this long-term smoothing line into perspective, by comparing it to the average violation of both the general and upward sloping 200-day average since 1999. The slope of a moving average is something that many analysts fail to address when trying to determine potential turning points on a chart. Although gold has been working lower for more than 3 months now, the current upward slope of the 200-day line reinforces the fact that gold's long-term trend is still to the upside. If we simply consider the general direction of the 200-day moving average since the start of the yellow metal's secular bull move in late 1999, gold's average distance below this line is -3.70%, with a maximum undercut of -19.2%. On the other hand, if we only consider gold's performance when the slope of the 200-day line is higher, the average violation is -2.19%, with a maximum undercut of -10.8%. Source: Arbor Research |
| Posted: 16 Dec 2011 12:00 AM PST Apple’s five-minute-long ‘Introducing iPhone 4S’ was the most viral ad of the year, drumming up over 28 million views, Peter Kafka reports on digits. The Most Viral Ad of 2011: Apple, Of Course 12/15/2011 2:25:21 PM |
| Unconstitutional SOPA Would “Criminalize” Internet Posted: 15 Dec 2011 10:30 PM PST SOPA Is "Unconstitutional", Would "Criminalize" the Internet … Modeled On China~~~ As the Hill notes:
Google CEO Eric Schmidt said that the bill would criminalize the Internet:
Indeed, China is exactly what the bill is modeled on:
Postscript: Given that Joe Lieberman said that America needs an internet kill switch like China, that the U.S. economy has turned socialist (at least for friends of those with control of the money spigot), and that the U.S. government used communist Chinese torture techniques specifically designed to produce false confessions in order to sell the Iraq war, I guess that the bill's Chinese-style censorship is not entirely surprising. |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2011 05:30 PM PST Today’s list of geegaws and gadgets are geared for the Trader on your shopping list. The odds are he (statistically) is stressed out, a little worried about his industry (and possibly his job), and unfortunately, making less in 2011 than he did in 2009 or ’10. These are the items to brighten up his holiday. ~~~ • Trading Movies: After a long day in the turret, what can be more relaxing than kicking back and watching films about trading? Here are 4 recommended flicks for your keyboard jockey:
• Quiet Revolution: 30 Years of Windham Hill ($28) Your trader dude stressed out? He needs to pour himself a stiff one, and chill out to this collection of acoustically rooted mellowness that is a blend of folk, classical and jazz. The upside is he will relax from the day’s tensions. The downside is his heart may not realize that this is supposed to occur in Humans and assume he is dead. ~~~ • Spa Massage De-Stress Muscle Release: $125-190 This deeply restorative treatment is specifically designed for tight, stressed and aching muscles. Too many hours spent sitting on the trading desk leaves your body stiff, tight and painful. Swedish and cross muscle fiber massage techniques with stretching and draining are combined with essential oils known for their beneficial effects on the circulation. Try the Nickel Spa for Men: They do massages, manicure/pedicures, facials, and the infamous “Boyzillian” (if you have to ask, you don’t want to know). ~~~
The Rosetta stone of album rock ~~~ • Books for the Trader’s Library Three different book shelves for the different traders in your life. The Newbie Trade (Starter pack) The Historian Technician ~~~
~~~ • Buy! Sell! $85 from KAL, the cartoonist for the Economist, this classic 2 panel cartoon laughingly depicts how the crowd moves from buying to selling and back. C’mon, we’re all sick of that cliched Bull and Bear print fighting it out in the street in front of the of NYSE. Instead, try one of these prints, each with a contrarian behavioral message.
Don’t just stand out from the crowd — avoid the crowd altogether. ~~~ • Yoga ($50-250) is a great way to focus your mind, relax, and get in the right state for the day ahead. It works for, amongst other folks, bond king Bill Gross, whose shop runs a ~trillion dollar sin fixed income. You should be able to purchase a gift certificate from a local studio. In NYC, try Pure Yoga — one of the top rated studios over the past few years.
• Herman Miller Embody Chair ($1100-1700) Embody lets your body move and keeps you well supported. Blood circulates better, heart rate goes down, more oxygen flows to the brain, and there is no distracting discomfort or physical constraint. The ideal trader’s chair, allowing the mind to work best when the body is unconstrained. In assorted features, colors and materials. If you have to sit all day, you might as well do it in style, and support your back at the same time. ~~~ • Bethpage Black Golf Course: Its not easy to get a tee time at the home of one of the toughest course on the US Open tour, but it can be done. Especially if you are willing to take a day off from trading and go midweek — Weekdays (18 Holes): $130.00
~~~ • CineMassive Trio Gemini 17D 6 Screen holder : $1,749
Using a multi-screen display for the first time is often described as feeling like having recieved a new lobe of brain. ~~~ • Caddy for the Cure: ($5,000 and up) For the avid golfer who is having an especially good year.
The guys I know who did this lost their minds, saying it was the greatest experience on a golf course they ever had. And, 100% of the proceeds goes to charity. |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2011 01:30 PM PST My afternoon train reading:
What are you reading? |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2011 11:56 AM PST Click for video Part I December 14, 2011 : Markets/News of the Day ~~~ Click for video Part II December 14, 2011 : Markets/News of the Day |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2011 11:30 AM PST |
| Griess: Use Gold’s 300 Day Moving Average Posted: 15 Dec 2011 08:30 AM PST Ron Griess of the Chart Store suggests that the 200 day is the wrong technical indicator to focus on regarding Gold.Looking back to this run, he suggests the 300 day is the more supportive index: > click for larger |
| Is The Euro On The Brink Of Collapse? Posted: 15 Dec 2011 08:00 AM PST
Time.com – As the Crisis Refuses to Calm, Scenarios of Euro Collapse Appear French researcher Emmanuel Todd argues that though the implosion of the euro would produce a period of economic pain, panic, and instability, he says that shock wouldn't last as long as some predict (18, maybe 24 months), before companies and governments picked up and moved on. And because many euro countries would be starting anew after having brushed off huge amounts of debt through various degrees of default, Todd argues the post-euro economies could be re-constructed on more solid fiscal foundations. Another consequence of such default, Todd says, would be freeing economies and governments from control of what he calls the "oligarchy" of mega-rich investors whose fortunes and interests drive and shape bond markets—and whose gain through safe government securities have influenced political leaders into building up huge public debt in the first place. Another benefit for European nations, Todd says, would be throwing off the domination of Germany, which he describes as dysfunctionally psycho-rigid, and so focused on its own national interests that it no longer cares about ruining its euro partners. Burning the rot from a teetering house, Todd suggests, will be hard and grim work, but at least leave enough of a sanitized structure to rebuild from. Reuters.com -What If The Euro Collapses?
The Wall Street Journal – 'Fiscal Compact' on Euro Set for Mid-2012 A new "fiscal compact" designed to mend flaws in the single European currency's framework should be completed in the first six months of next year, European Commission president José Manuel Barroso said Wednesday. "We are going to hopefully conclude negotiations for a new fiscal compact during the Danish presidency," Mr. Barroso told the European Parliament. "The crisis is not yet behind us, there's a lot of work ahead." Denmark takes over the European Union's six-month rotating presidency from Poland on January 1. Germany believed that the agreement of new tougher fiscal stability rules in Europe would be enough to calm down the financial markets but not all other countries at last week's EU summit agreed, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said Wednesday in an address to the Italian Senate. More systematic fiscal rigor is "essential" and the pledges made by 26 EU members last Friday will boost the credibility of public finances in the region, Mr. Monti said. The Wall Street Journal – Euro Falls Below $1.30 The euro took a hit Tuesday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her opposition to raising a €500 billion ($652 billion) lending limit for the permanent euro-zone bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, which is due to come into operation in July 2012. "The comments contained no surprises, but came at a bad time," said Dai Sato, senior vice president of the foreign exchange division at Mizuho Corporate Bank. Traders said euro bearishness could persist unless Germany and the European Central Bank step up their contributions to efforts to put an end to the crisis. "But such changes are unlikely to occur soon," Mr. Sato added. The euro will likely come under pressure against the yen, said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo, adding that "there's a chance it may fall below ¥100." That would be a new 10-year low, breaking the mark of ¥100.77, set in October. |
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