The Big Picture |
- Friday Night Jazz Funk: 20 best Prince songs you’ve never heard
- Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (9/28/12)
- Weekly Eurozone Watch: The European Street
- Earnings Life Cycle & the Value Trap
- Colbert: The Trouble with Polls
- Chicago PMI below 50/UoM confidence
- 10 Friday AM Reads
- Income/spending/savings rate
- Spain/China/Davey Johnson
- Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice – Part 3
| Friday Night Jazz Funk: 20 best Prince songs you’ve never heard Posted: 28 Sep 2012 04:00 PM PDT Call it the luck of the random click: Chasing down some link, I happened across this fantastic collection of Prinmce songs Matt Thorne, author of a new biography of the purple one, titled Prince: a Celebration, chooses 20 little-known Prince gems.
Videos after the jump
PFunk
Can I Play With U? – Miles Davis/Prince The Family – 02 – Mutiny
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| Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (9/28/12) Posted: 28 Sep 2012 12:00 PM PDT Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives:
Negatives:
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| Weekly Eurozone Watch: The European Street Posted: 28 Sep 2012 11:30 AM PDT Weekly Eurozone Watch: The European Street Key Data Points:
Comments: Spanish bank stress test results released after Friday close: Source: Guardian
Reform fatigue growing reflected in this week's mass protests across Europe.
(click here if charts are not observable) |
| Earnings Life Cycle & the Value Trap Posted: 28 Sep 2012 09:00 AM PDT Fascinating set of cycle charts from Merrill looking at earnings, and how being too early when timing value stock purchases is even worse than being too late!
Earnings Life Cycle Merrill explains:
Good Value Managers vs. Bad Value Managers Industry Value Traps
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| Colbert: The Trouble with Polls Posted: 28 Sep 2012 08:52 AM PDT Hilarious: Mitt Romney shouldn’t worry about the election because Obama could still make a gaffe, Mitt could win the debates or God could send a flood to destroy all mankind. Mitt Romney’s Sliding Poll Numbers The Colbert Report (02:04) |
| Chicago PMI below 50/UoM confidence Posted: 28 Sep 2012 07:45 AM PDT After NY, Philly, Dallas and Milwaukee mfr’g survey’s pointed to contraction and KC and Richmond showed growth, the Chicago mfr’g PMI was below 50 for the 1st time since Sept ’09 at 49.7. New Orders fell 7.4 pts to 47.4 while Backlogs remained well below 50 at 41.6 vs 41.7 in Aug and 52.8 in July. Employment fell by 5.1 pts to 52, the lowest since Mar ’10. Inventories were little changed at 51.1. Prices Paid rose by 6.2 pts to 63.2, a 5 month high. Bottom line, manufacturing at the national level has been slightly below 50 for the past 3 months and the regional survey’s in Sept point to something similar. Monday’s ISM expectations are for a reading of exactly 50 vs 49.6 in August, 49.8 in July and 49.7 in June. Separately, the final Sept UoM confidence survey at 78.3 was a touch below estimates of 79 and down from the preliminary report of 79.2 but still up 4 pts from Aug. The biggest change from the preliminary Sept reading was in Current Conditions which fell 3 pts from Aug instead of just .4. The Outlook was little changed from the preliminary and up 8.4 pts from Aug. One yr inflation expectations fell to 3.3% from 3.6% in Aug and are now in line with the 12 month avg. While moderated somewhat from the 1st look at UoM confidence, the final Sept figure follows the Conference Board improvement but is only a coincident snap shot indicator and not leading. |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2012 07:00 AM PDT Some Friday morning sell off reads:
What are you doing this weekend? X |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2012 06:15 AM PDT Income growth in August was only .1% m/o/m and July was revised to growth of just .1% from the initial figure of up .3%. Because the headline PCE inflation number was up .4% m/o/m, REAL income growth was down .3% and was up just .1% in July. The WSJ today quotes Bernanke that QE is a “main street policy.” That of course is where the debate begins and ends. On a y/o/y basis it looks better though as income growth is up 3.5% and the PCE is up by 1.5%. Spending rose .5% after being up .4% in July. After the inflation adjustment, spending was up just .1% in Aug but higher by .4% in July. The Savings Rate fell to 3.7% from 4.1%, a 4 month low as of course ideally, stronger income growth would be a better fuel for spending. |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2012 06:13 AM PDT While US stocks used yesterday’s Spanish budget details as an excuse to bounce after 7 down days in the previous 8, the Spaniards themselves aren’t celebrating as they know the difficulties ahead. The IBEX sold off in the last 20 minutes of its day yesterday when the budget cuts were revealed and its trading down another 1% today. The Spanish 2 yr yield is approaching 3.5% again on the upside and the 10 yr yield is back above 6%. The initial reaction yesterday was that maybe the Spanish news was enough to satisfy any potential conditions brought upon them with an eventual bailout request. Either way, Spain will be asking for help. Noon time we’ll see how much money the Spanish banking system will be thought to need for recaps with 60b euros expected. The ESM though won’t give Spain the money until banking oversight in the Euro zone is up and running and that may not be until 2013. Thanks to energy prices and an increase in the Spanish VAT tax, Euro zone CPI in Sept rose 2.7% y/o/y, above estimates of 2.4% and a 7 month high. In Asia, ahead of a week long holiday, the Shanghai index rallied another 1.5%. The reported quote of the day goes to Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson who met Ben Bernanke right before the Sept 13th meeting and said “I wanted to ask him if I should get some gold and silver but I bit my tongue.” |
| Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice – Part 3 Posted: 28 Sep 2012 05:30 AM PDT |
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