The Big Picture |
- The Gentleman’s Guide To Forum Disruption
- Bruce Bartlett: Dangers of Republican Know-Nothingism
- 10 Thursday PM Reads
- Chinese to ease previous restrictions on mortgages?
- What to Expect When You’re Electing
- Withholding-Tax Collections Steady in October
- ISM mfr’g unexpectedly higher
- The new and improved ADP report says…
- Teenage Life in Ancient Rome
- Eurozone Unemployment Rates (EU = 11.6%)
| The Gentleman’s Guide To Forum Disruption Posted: 01 Nov 2012 10:30 PM PDT COINTELPRO Techniques for Dilution, Misdirection and Control of an Internet Forum
We have repeatedly addressed the topic of disruption of logical debate on the Internet. An anonymous writer posted an important new report on disruption at Pastebin. It is in the style of a leaked law enforcement memo, although we cannot vouch for its authenticity as a document produced by a whistleblower. However, we have seen these techniques repeatedly used to disrupt Internet debate, and so – even if only copying the style of a real memo – it contains valuable information which all web user should know. COINTELPRO Techniques for dilution, misdirection and control of a internet forum. There are several techniques for the control and manipulation of a internet forum no matter what, or who is on it. We will go over each technique and demonstrate that only a minimal number of operatives can be used to eventually and effectively gain a control of a 'uncontrolled forum.' Technique #1 – 'FORUM SLIDING' If a very sensitive posting of a critical nature has been posted on a forum – it can be quickly removed from public view by 'forum sliding.' In this technique a number of unrelated posts are quietly prepositioned on the forum and allowed to 'age.' Each of these misdirectional forum postings can then be called upon at will to trigger a 'forum slide.' The second requirement is that several fake accounts exist, which can be called upon, to ensure that this technique is not exposed to the public. To trigger a 'forum slide' and 'flush' the critical post out of public view it is simply a matter of logging into each account both real and fake and then 'replying' to prepositined postings with a simple 1 or 2 line comment. This brings the unrelated postings to the top of the forum list, and the critical posting 'slides' down the front page, and quickly out of public view. Although it is difficult or impossible to censor the posting it is now lost in a sea of unrelated and unuseful postings. By this means it becomes effective to keep the readers of the forum reading unrelated and non-issue items. Technique #2 – 'CONSENSUS CRACKING' A second highly effective technique (which you can see in operation all the time at www.abovetopsecret.com) is 'consensus cracking.' To develop a consensus crack, the following technique is used. Under the guise of a fake account a posting is made which looks legitimate and is towards the truth is made – but the critical point is that it has a VERY WEAK PREMISE without substantive proof to back the posting. Once this is done then under alternative fake accounts a very strong position in your favour is slowly introduced over the life of the posting. It is IMPERATIVE that both sides are initially presented, so the uninformed reader cannot determine which side is the truth. As postings and replies are made the stronger 'evidence' or disinformation in your favour is slowly 'seeded in.' Thus the uninformed reader will most like develop the same position as you, and if their position is against you their opposition to your posting will be most likely dropped. However in some cases where the forum members are highly educated and can counter your disinformation with real facts and linked postings, you can then 'abort' the consensus cracking by initiating a 'forum slide.' Technique #3 – 'TOPIC DILUTION' Topic dilution is not only effective in forum sliding it is also very useful in keeping the forum readers on unrelated and non-productive issues. This is a critical and useful technique to cause a 'RESOURCE BURN.' By implementing continual and non-related postings that distract and disrupt (trolling ) the forum readers they are more effectively stopped from anything of any real productivity. If the intensity of gradual dilution is intense enough, the readers will effectively stop researching and simply slip into a 'gossip mode.' In this state they can be more easily misdirected away from facts towards uninformed conjecture and opinion. The less informed they are the more effective and easy it becomes to control the entire group in the direction that you would desire the group to go in. It must be stressed that a proper assessment of the psychological capabilities and levels of education is first determined of the group to determine at what level to 'drive in the wedge.' By being too far off topic too quickly it may trigger censorship by a forum moderator. Technique #4 – 'INFORMATION COLLECTION' Information collection is also a very effective method to determine the psychological level of the forum members, and to gather intelligence that can be used against them. In this technique in a light and positive environment a 'show you mine so me yours' posting is initiated. From the number of replies and the answers that are provided much statistical information can be gathered. An example is to post your 'favourite weapon' and then encourage other members of the forum to showcase what they have. In this matter it can be determined by reverse proration what percentage of the forum community owns a firearm, and or a illegal weapon. This same method can be used by posing as one of the form members and posting your favourite 'technique of operation.' From the replies various methods that the group utilizes can be studied and effective methods developed to stop them from their activities. Technique #5 – 'ANGER TROLLING' Statistically, there is always a percentage of the forum posters who are more inclined to violence. In order to determine who these individuals are, it is a requirement to present a image to the forum to deliberately incite a strong psychological reaction. From this the most violent in the group can be effectively singled out for reverse IP location and possibly local enforcement tracking. To accomplish this only requires posting a link to a video depicting a local police officer massively abusing his power against a very innocent individual. Statistically of the million or so police officers in America there is always one or two being caught abusing there powers and the taping of the activity can be then used for intelligence gathering purposes – without the requirement to 'stage' a fake abuse video. This method is extremely effective, and the more so the more abusive the video can be made to look. Sometimes it is useful to 'lead' the forum by replying to your own posting with your own statement of violent intent, and that you 'do not care what the authorities think!!' inflammation. By doing this and showing no fear it may be more effective in getting the more silent and self-disciplined violent intent members of the forum to slip and post their real intentions. This can be used later in a court of law during prosecution. Technique #6 – 'GAINING FULL CONTROL' It is important to also be harvesting and continually maneuvering for a forum moderator position. Once this position is obtained, the forum can then be effectively and quietly controlled by deleting unfavourable postings – and one can eventually steer the forum into complete failure and lack of interest by the general public. This is the 'ultimate victory' as the forum is no longer participated with by the general public and no longer useful in maintaining their freedoms. Depending on the level of control you can obtain, you can deliberately steer a forum into defeat by censoring postings, deleting memberships, flooding, and or accidentally taking the forum offline. By this method the forum can be quickly killed. However it is not always in the interest to kill a forum as it can be converted into a 'honey pot' gathering center to collect and misdirect newcomers and from this point be completely used for your control for your agenda purposes. CONCLUSION Remember these techniques are only effective if the forum participants DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THEM. Once they are aware of these techniques the operation can completely fail, and the forum can become uncontrolled. At this point other avenues must be considered such as initiating a false legal precidence to simply have the forum shut down and taken offline. This is not desirable as it then leaves the enforcement agencies unable to track the percentage of those in the population who always resist attempts for control against them. Many other techniques can be utilized and developed by the individual and as you develop further techniques of infiltration and control it is imperative to share then with HQ. |
| Bruce Bartlett: Dangers of Republican Know-Nothingism Posted: 01 Nov 2012 04:00 PM PDT Bruce Bartlett goes off on some of the denialist behavior from the GOP. Bartlett writes: When a study doesn't support their dogma, the GOP censors it: Nonpartisan Tax Report Withdrawn After G.O.P. Protest Bartlett discussed how Republicans destroyed much of Congress's analytical ability when they took over in 1995: Gingrich and the Destruction of Congressional Expertise He adds “This is part and parcel with poll denialism, global warming denialism, and the general right wing disdain for facts and reality.” Note: Before making any kneejerk partisan reaction to this, note that Bartlett — Like Stockman and others — sre not trying to mske a pro-Democrat argument; rather, they are acknowledging a major societal concern when one of the 2 major political parties have foresaken science and reality and facts when they disagree with their agenda. I am enormously concerned about any society that has half its goverrning officials driven by witchcraft and superstitition and bad ideas, and no longer are concerned with facts, truth, reality. There needs to be a centrist alternative to the GOP: Reality based, science AND market friendly, but also socially forward thinking, not tied to the religious right or other zealots and jihadists. |
| Posted: 01 Nov 2012 12:30 PM PDT Thanks to my sister, I am clean and showered! Here are my afternoon reads:
What are you reading?
EU-zone Unemployment |
| Chinese to ease previous restrictions on mortgages? Posted: 01 Nov 2012 11:00 AM PDT Official Chinese PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.8 in September, in line with estimates and above 50.0 for the 1st time for 3 months. The new orders and export components rose above 50, the highest since April and in 6 months respectively. The HSBC survey came in at 49.5, up from 47.9 in September and the preliminary reading of 49.1. The Yen weakened today in reaction to the Panasonic loss yesterday (shares were down nearly 20% today) and speculation that the BoJ will ease further. The BoJ’s minutes of the last meeting are out tomorrow. At present the Yen is trading at 80 against the US$; The Japanese consumer electronics company, Sharp forecast a record loss of US$5.6bn for the full year, nearly double its previous forecast. In addition, they stated that there was “material doubt” as to whether it could remain in business !!!!!!!. Its shares have declined 75% this year; The Greek governments forecast that their debt to GDP will rise to 189% next year, rising to a peak of 192% in 2014 has come as a bit of a shock to the EZ. The 2013 budget deficit is forecast to come in at -5.2% and not -4.2%, as previously forecast, with GDP declining by -4.5%, worse than the -3.8% forecast previously (-6.5% this year). In March this year, the Troika estimated that Greek debt to GDP would peak at 167% next year. Even the IMF’s “alternate scenario” ie worse case scenario, forecast that Greek debt to GDP would peak at 171%. Its going to be interesting to see how the good and the great at the EZ sell this one. Remember, politically they (Mrs Merkel, together with Finland, Holland and Austria) cannot accept a haircut at present, even though they all know one is coming – though as far as Mrs Merkel’s is concerned, only after her general elections next year – is that possible – I think not. In addition, remember that Mrs Merkel had advised that German taxpayers faced no risk of losses on bail outs – indeed, she advised that the bail out programme would generate a profit. Oops. The FT reports that some 25 of Mrs Merkel’s coalition members are opposed to further aid for Greece. This is getting beyond surreal; Portugal approved a package of additional tax increases in their Parliament today to meet their targets, imposed as part of their bail out. The problem is that additional spending cuts and tax increases will reduce GDp and, as a result, tax revenues – at this stage Portugal is just chasing its own tail; The EU has imposed the 1st pan-EU short selling rules, with effect as of today. Apart from these rules being pretty silly, they are incomprehensible. The EU market regulator, the European Securities and Market Authority (“ESMA”) is not expected to issue guidance until the end of November. The regulation is the 1st time that the EU has sought to regulate transactions beyond its borders; Mr Cameron the UK PM suffered a major defeat in Parliament over the EU budget (the opponents want a cut in the EU budget) and whilst the vote is non binding, it does undermine his authority. Some 50 Conservative MP’s rebelled. Mr Cameron is proposing that the EU freeze its budget for the period 2014 to 2020, though the EU is proposing a 5%+ increase. The Germans have suggested that the budget be capped to 1.0% of GDP. Cameron is unlikely to have any support from other EU countries at the forthcoming EU summit for his proposals. He has threatened to veto the process. Pretty tough position for Cameron to be in; UK manufacturing PMI came in at 47.5, lower than the 48.0 expected and 48.1 in September. The new orders component came in at 47.7, as opposed to 49.9 previously. Manufacturers cut production and shed labour. The ADP US October employment numbers came in at 158k, much better than the 131k expected and the revised number of 88.2k (162k previously) in September. The basis of computing the number has been changed to better align with the NFP data, which is due out tomorrow – the forecast is for 125k jobs to have been created; US weekly jobless claims for the week ended 27th October came in at 363k, better than the 370k expected and the revised 372k previously. Continuing claims came in at 3.264mn, somewhat higher than the 3.25mn expected and 3.259mn previously. US non farm Q3 productivity came in at +1.9%, as opposed to +1.8% expected and +2.2% previously; US October ISM came in at 51.7 M/M, better than the 51.0 expected and 51.5 in September, the highest since May 2012; The odds of President Obama being reelected has risen to 68.0, according to Intrade. Outlook Asian markets closed higher, with European markets following – the main markets closed about 1.0%+ higher. US markets are up by about 1.0% higher at present. The Nikkei closed marginally higher today, in spite of the much weaker corporate results announced by Sharp. However, the Yen is weaker – currently trading at Yen 80.12 against the US$, given the weaker economic news in Japan, as opposed to the better US data. The Euro opened stronger but sold off and is currently US$1.2937, with gold at US$1715 and Brent lower at US$108.28. Sterling is rising as more analysts expect the BoE to be on hold with its QE programme this month. They announced that they had completed their gilt purchase programme to reach their £375bn target The better Chinese PMI data has helped markets today, together with start of the month activity. Whilst analysts argue that the odds of a Greek rescue are better than 50%, its not a shoe in. In a tele conference today, EZ finance ministers agreed, in principle, to extend the repayment period and reduce interest rates on bail out funds. The IMF proposal for a haircut was rejected, as it was politically unpalatable. Mr Schaeuble stated today that reaching agreement by 12th November was an “ambitious target”, reiterating that Greece needed to meet its commitments. The privatisation legislation was narrowly passed in the Greek Parliament. Kiron Sarkar 1st November 2012 |
| What to Expect When You’re Electing Posted: 01 Nov 2012 09:30 AM PDT
Interesting data on S&P500 returns during the last two months of a presidential election year. We looked at the last fifteen presidential elections beginning with the 1952 election of President Eisenhower. With the exception of the swan elections of 2008, which took place during the financial collapse, and the contested of election of 2000, stocks have behaved very well in the last two months of the year. For example, the average return for S&P500 in the last two months for all fifteen election years, including 2008's -6.76 percent and -7.63 percent in 2000, is 2.59 percent. Excluding 2008 the S&P500 returned 3.25 percent and removing both swan years, 2008 and 2000, the S&P returned an impressive average return of 4.09 percent. The table below also shows that six presidents won reelection and three lost. During the years when an incumbent won reelection, the S&P500 returned on average 3.5 percent and 5.0 percent when the challenger won. Only one in six elections did the incumbent party win the White House when an incumbent president was not in the race. Nine Republicans and six Democrats have won presidential elections since 1952 with the S&P500 performing fairly similar for both parties. Given how close this election appears to be there is tail risk of a contested election, which would collide with the fiscal cliff resulting in a disaster for U.S. stocks, in our opinion. That risk remains until the uncertainty is removed when polls close on November 6th. We maintain the view that stocks rip higher with a decisive Romney victory, especially given the conventional wisdom (Intrade) is that the President wins reelection. Not a political statement and history, as reflected in the table below, does confirm our view — 5 percent average return for the S&P500 when the challenger defeats an incumbent president. Given no Black Swans, of course! Stay tuned!
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| Withholding-Tax Collections Steady in October Posted: 01 Nov 2012 08:30 AM PDT Matt Trivvisanno gives us the early look at ttomrorws NFP data via withholding data: “Over the past three weeks, the year-over-year growth rate of federal withholding-tax collections was a respectable 4.72%. Using a longer period for comparison on the chart:
You can see that the surge that we saw in August and September has ended (look at the red line). However, the data has not gone into decline, so there does not appear to be any cause for alarm. Perhaps retailers are not staffing-up quite as much for the holiday shopping season this year. Maybe they are expecting Amazon.com to take share. In any case, things look steady and there should not be any nasty surprises in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
Source: Daily Jobs Update |
| Posted: 01 Nov 2012 06:53 AM PDT The Oct ISM mfr’g figure unexpectedly rose to 51.7 from 51.5 in Sept and that’s slightly better than expectations of 51.0. It’s the 2nd month in a row above 50 following the 3 prior months barely below. New Orders rose almost 2 pts to 54.2 but Backlogs were lower by 2.5 pts to 41.5, the lowest since Sept ’11. Employment fell 2.6 pts to 52.1 and is back below the 6 month average of 54. Importantly, Export Orders fell .5 pt to 48.0 and is now below 50 for the 5th straight month. Inventories at the mfr’g and customer levels were down slightly. Prices Paid fell 3 pts after rising 4 pts in Sept. Reflecting the mixed state of mfr’g, of the 18 industries surveyed, 8 saw growth, 8 contraction with the balance seeing no change. The ISM summed up the report with this quote, “Comments from the panel this month reflect continued concern over a fragile global economy and soft orders across several manufacturing sectors.” Bottom line, the market breathed a sigh of relief that not only did the ISM remain above 50 but also rose a touch from Sept. This said, the components were mixed and point to a still sluggish pace of activity, in large part due to weakness overseas but of course a muted pace of cap ex because of our own fiscal ineptitude. This is also reflected in the jobs outlook as tomorrow is supposed to show the 3rd month in a row of mfr’g job losses. |
| The new and improved ADP report says… Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:16 AM PDT The newly improved ADP employment report said 158k private sector jobs were added in October vs 88.2k in Sept (revised from 162k due to the new methodology). It’s the most job adds since February. ADP ditched their previous collaborator and have now linked up with Moody’s Analytics “to offer an even deeper, richer and more illuminating look at US monthly employment.” They claim that today’s figure will look like the 3rd revision to the Gov’t Payroll report which initially is supposed to be 124k tomorrow. Of the 158k net jobs created, 144k came from services and 14k from goods producing of which 23k construction jobs were added somewhat reduced by a loss of 8k mfr’g jobs. As the holder of actual payroll slips, ADP should be an accurate measure of employment and we’ll see over the coming months to see how this new format plays out vs the Payroll data. |
| Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:00 AM PDT Welcome to the world of Lucius Popidius Secundus, a 17-year old living in Rome in 73 AD. His life is a typical one of arranged marriages, coming-of-age festivals, and communal baths. Take a look at this exquisitely detailed lesson on life of a typical Roman teenager two thousand years ago. Lesson by Ray Laurence, animation by Cognitive Media. Hat tip Explore View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/a-glimpse-of-teenage-life-in-ancient-rome-ray-laurence |
| Eurozone Unemployment Rates (EU = 11.6%) Posted: 01 Nov 2012 04:00 AM PDT The Euro zone announced yesterday that unemployment was at 11.6%. Here is a breakdown by country for Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland, Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Luxembourg. Note the fearsome foursome: Spain (25%), Greece (20%), Portugal (16%), Ireland (15%):
click for ginormous chart
Thanks, Ralph ! |
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