The Big Picture |
- Unemployment and Business Cycles
- Teaser: Big Announcement Next Week
- 10 Thursday PM Reads
- Long Term Unemployed
- What Indices Are At All Time & 2013 Highs?
- 10 Thursday AM Reads
- Look Out Above, I Dont Know Why Edition (part II)
- TDS: A Nightmare on Wall Street
| Unemployment and Business Cycles Posted: 25 Oct 2013 02:00 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Teaser: Big Announcement Next Week Posted: 24 Oct 2013 04:30 PM PDT Since the summer, I have been working on a skunk works project that has been kept under wraps during the negotiation process. It involves a a combination of media — sort of a mash up of blogging, podcasting and radio. I think it will be way cool. The fact that I am discussing it here means that, yes, we have a done deal — I signed the docs and made it all legal (guess what top flight legal counsel costs in this town?!). There should be an announcement towards the end of next week. I am super jazzed about it. I am under NDA, so I cannot reveal what the specifics are until then — but I can say it is a pretty big deal. Hopefully, I hope this project ends up being as innovative and unusual as I envision; there is the possibility of crashing and burning, egg on my face, failure / horrible embarrassment/ showing up naked for high school finals sort of humiliation. But WTF, if you never take risks, you will never grow! What might change? I expect the blog might see some small changes in some ways, and for sure, my schedule will, as well as my interaction with media. Other than that you are just going to have to come back a week from now and see whats up. I am very very excited about this!
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| Posted: 24 Oct 2013 01:30 PM PDT My afternoon train reading:
What are you reading?
Gains in NonFarm Payrolls Are Sliding
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| Posted: 24 Oct 2013 11:30 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What Indices Are At All Time & 2013 Highs? Posted: 24 Oct 2013 09:30 AM PDT A hedge fund manager friend had mentioned a research report that had noted the Dow, FTSE and Nikkei were at neither all time nor 2013 highs. Those there indices sounded like it a bit of cherry picking to me. So rather than succumb to the usual confirmation bias, I decided to see what major indexes were or were not actually making 2013 and all time highs These are the results:
Source: Ritholtz Wealth Management | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Oct 2013 05:45 AM PDT My early morning reads:
What are you reading?
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| Look Out Above, I Dont Know Why Edition (part II) Posted: 24 Oct 2013 04:29 AM PDT click for updated futures
Yesterday morning I wrote Look Out Below, I Don't Know Why Edition. Today, the market half is a mirror image — up about as much as yesterday was down. The only thing that remains the same is my ignorance — I really don’t know why markets are up today or down yesterday. One headline notes that “U.S. Stock Futures Rise Amid Earnings, China Factory Data” — but we had mixed earnings yesterday, and so far, earnings are mixed today. And Chinese economic data was good yesterday. This leads to my regularly offering up my insight with a big fat I don’t know. All too often, investors try to construct a plausible explanation, typically in narrative form, as to what is going on. The danger is not so much that they fail — that to be expected — but rather that they confuse their confabulated narrative for truth, and mistakenly believe their own bullshit for reality. This leads to a combination of ill informed decisions making which cannot help but produce poor judgements. Rather than focus on what is unknown, and perhaps unknowable, I would counsel investors to focus on techniques that eliminate the noise to focus on signal. Eliminating known errors is a good start, as is reducing the consumption of frivolous, consistently wrong, or merely useless junk. How can you get more signal, and less noise in your day? There are ways to accomplish this, which I hope to detail tomorrow . . . | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TDS: A Nightmare on Wall Street Posted: 24 Oct 2013 03:00 AM PDT The government executes a shakedown-witch hunt-scalping-jihad against JP Morgan Chase. The Daily Show October 23, 2013 (05:05) |
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