The Big Picture

George Carlin: All My Stuff $115
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (November 1, 2013)
Balenthiran 17.6 Year Cycle
Announcing My New Bloomberg Gig
10 Friday AM Reads
TRUE STORY: A funny thing happened to me on the way to the studio tonight
The Myth of Financial Reform

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 03:30 PM PDT

George Carlin: All My Stuff (2007)

Normally $189.98, now on sale for $115

This 14-disc career retrospective set includes all twelve of George Carlin s HBO concert specials, spanning nearly thirty years. One of the greatest comedians of all time, Carlin performs his most memorable routines (Baseball and Football, A Place for My Stuff, Losing Things, Al Sleet the Hippie-Dippie Weather Man, Hitler, We Like War, It s Not A Sport, Why We Don't Need Ten Commandments and Seven Words You Can Never Say on Television).

Two bonus discs round out the collection including interviews — Carlin fans will adore this set.

Previously:

George Carlin (1937 – 2008)

More Shopmas Gift Ideas!

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (November 1, 2013)

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 12:00 PM PDT

Succinct Summations week ending November 1, 2013.

Positives:

1. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones were up 4.3% and 2.7% respectively in October, in spite of the government shut down and all the noise.
2. ISM manufacturing comes in at 56.4 v 55 expected, the highest since April 2011.
3. GM vehicle sales soar 15.7% v 7.9% expected, Ford's trucks sales were the highest since 2004.
4. HSBC China PMI came in line, at a 7 month high.
5. Japanese retail sales rose 3.1% v expectations of a 1.9% rise.
6. South Korean exports surged 7.3% y/o/y vs. expectations of a 2.3% increase.
7. Australia manufacturing PMI came in at 53.2, up from 51.7 in September.
8. Chicago PMI comes in at 65.9, well above expectations of 55.
9. Initial jobless claims fell 10k to 340k.
10. Case-Shiller comes grew at 12.8% y/o/y and 0.93% m/o/m vs. expectations of 0.65%.

Negatives:

1. The private sector added just 130k jobs last month v estimates of 150k. September private payroll was revised down by almost 20k jobs.
2. Consumer confidence dropped to 71.2 in October from 79.7 in September, ugly miss.
3. U.S. pending home sales fell 5.6% v flat expectations. This is the first Y/O/Y decline in 29 months.
4. September Retail sales come in at -0.1%, a little weaker than expected. Ex-auto comes in line at 0.4%.
5. The rate of U.S manufacturing growth hit a one-year-low. PMI beat expectations, but were the worst numbers since October 2012.
6. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed flat on the week for the first time in 5 weeks.

Balenthiran 17.6 Year Cycle

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 09:00 AM PDT

Source: 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran:

“My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle length of 17.6 years. I have called this cycle the Balenthiran Cycle and demonstrate how the intermediate turning points match stock market behavior going back to the early 1900s and extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap of the next secular bull market to 2035 and subsequent secular bear market to 2053.”

A few caveats: The 17.6 year cycle has been bantered about for a long time by various people. (See “previous” below).

Second, I would add is that cycles can be interrupted by external events — like Bailouts, QE, etc.

Last, the world changes over time, and I doubt that any oscillation period dependent upon humans would stay all that consistent over decades and centuries.

Previously:

Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End? (February 4th, 2013)

Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude (April 25th, 2013)

Economic Cycles and Investing (December 28th, 2011)

Psy Cycle (Updated) (December 20th, 2011)

The 56 Year Benner Cycle (August 19th, 2010)

Art Cashin on Secular Cycles (July 8th, 2009)

Announcing My New Bloomberg Gig

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 07:00 AM PDT

I teased this last week, mentioned it again Monday, and now the news is finally out: I am joining the team at Bloomberg View as well as the Radio group.

This is a project that has been quite literally 6 years in the making. Back when he was Managing Editor of the NYT Sunday Business section, Tim O’Brien first approached me about writing for him. (My response: “Thaler, Shiller, Mankiw . . . Ritholtz? I don’t think so.“). We had ongoing discussions, but they O’Brien moved on before we were able to consummate anything.

Tim joined Bloomberg View earlier this year as its Chief Cook and Bottle Washer/Publisher. He has been given the budget and the freedom to pursue a specific objective: Make Opinion and Commentary smart again. I am thrilled to be part of that project.

I am also super jazzed about working with their Radio team to develop a weekly show. The elevator pitch was the Charlie Rose of finance meets Mark Maron on Bloomberg Radio and iTunes. The goal is to continue to do the sort of in depth interviews like I have done in the past with the all stars of investing: Ned Davis, Felix Zulauf, Paul Desmond, etc. Its a work in progress, and I have no idea what it will look like when we are finished, but I expect it to be smart, informative — and not boring

I have had other discussions with other media outlets over the years: Reuters, CNBC, Huffington Post, lots more. Somehow, it never quite felt right. This one does.

More coming soon . . .

Full press release after the jump

Barry Ritholtz Joins Bloomberg View

November 1, 2013

NEW YORK — Bloomberg View today announced that Barry L. Ritholtz is joining the opinion and analysis site as a columnist covering finance, the economy, and the business world writ large.

"Barry brings a singular and authoritative voice to our core business coverage," said David Shipley, the senior executive editor of Bloomberg View. "We're thrilled that he's decided to make View his new home."

Ritholtz runs the closely followed finance blog, The Big Picture, which will now largely serve as an archive for his work, which will now originate on Bloomberg View. Ritholtz, who also works as a money manager and has been a professional market strategist, specializes in quantitative and behavioral analyses of markets and the economy and approaches both as a witty and iconoclastic contrarian.

Ritholtz has written on such topics as the psychology of investing and decision-making, Wall Street and banking, and fiscal and monetary policy. He was an early and prescient observer of the housing and financial crisis several years ago. His book, "Bailout Nation," offers an incisive exploration of the roots of that crisis.

He is a frequent guest on television and radio and he will continue to do so across Bloomberg's various global media platforms. In addition to other media appearances, he will develop a weekly radio show and podcast for Bloomberg View and Bloomberg News covering finance, the economy, and the business world.

Ritholtz studied mathematics and physics at Stony Brook University, where he also earned an undergraduate degree in political science. He has a law degree, cum laude, from the Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law. He worked briefly as an attorney before pursuing a career in finance. He launched The Big Picture blog in 2003.

A New York Knicks fan, a boater, and a vintage sports car enthusiast, Ritholtz and his wife, Wendy, live on the North Shore of Long Island.

10 Friday AM Reads

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 05:45 AM PDT

My Morning Reads

• Did Monetary Policy Cause the Recovery?(Hussman Funds) but see Eugene Fama: QE Doesn't do Much (Pragmatic Capitalism)
• TARP, Five Years Later (Conversable Economist)
• Tyson: The Business of Business is More Than Business (Project Syndicate) see also Q&A: How Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker wants to get foreigners to invest in America (Washington Post)
• The collapse of US infrastructure spending, charted (FT Alphaville) See chart below
• After Fraud, the Fog Around Libor Hasn't Lifted (NY Times)
• Obamacare fiasco: Was building HealthCare.gov really that hard? (CS Monitor) but see G.O.P. Unveils Own Health-Care Web Site, EmergencyRoom.gov (New Yorker)
• 15 Facts That Reveal The Utter Insanity Of Britain’s Housing Market (BuzzFeed)
• Still No Evidence Obamacare Is Forcing Large Numbers Into Part-Time Work (WSJ) see also The American Health Care System Sucks (Business Insider)
• ‘Dark Mail Alliance’, Future of surveillance proof email technology (Hacker News)
• There's no global wine shortage (Reuters)

What are you reading?

US Infrastructure Spending in One Chart

Source: FT Alphaville

TRUE STORY: A funny thing happened to me on the way to the studio tonight

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 04:00 AM PDT

This is a decade old today, and its still resonates with me like it is yesterday. If you haven’t read this before, settle back and enjoy this rewind from November 1, 2003: