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Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment?

Posted: 19 Dec 2013 02:00 AM PST

White House Panel Slams NSA, Says Mass Spying Is Unnecessary

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 10:30 PM PST

Even Commission Which Obama Created Says We Should Rein In the NSA … and Shouldn't Blindly Trust Government

 

The White House panel on NSA spying released its report today, slamming mass surveillance and vindicating what critics have been saying all along.

Specifically, the commission set up by President Obama – formally known as the Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technologies – found (page 104):

Our review suggests that the information contributed to terrorist investigations by the use of section 215 telephony meta-data was not essential to preventing attacks and could readily have been obtained in a timely manner using conventional section 215 orders.

In other words, sucking up every American's metadata is unnecessary.

The panel recommends that National Security Letters be reviewed by a real court before being approved (page 93):

The panel further warns that unchecked spying always leads to abuses (page 114):

We cannot discount the risk, in light of the lessons of our own history, that at some point in the future, high-level government officials will decide that this massive database of  extraordinarily sensitive private information is there for the plucking. Americans must never make the mistake of wholly "trusting" our public officials. As the Church Committee observed more than 35 years ago, when the capacity of government to collect massive amounts of data about individual Americans was still in its infancy, the "massive centralization of . . . information creates a temptation to use it for improper purposes, threatens to 'chill' the exercise of First Amendment rights, and is inimical to the privacy of citizens."

Background.

And the Commission says that the government should stop industrial espionage … and undertake manipulation of financial systems (page 221):

(1) Governments should not use surveillance to steal industry secrets to advantage their domestic industry;

(2) Governments should not use their offensive cyber capabilities to change the amounts held in financial accounts or otherwise manipulate the financial systems ….

Indeed, economic advantage has always been one of the main reasons for spying.

As one of the commissioners – former counter-terrorism czar Richard Clarke – told the New York Times, the government shouldn't do things just because they can:

Just because we can doesn't mean we should.

The 9/11 Commission chairs agree.

As Senator Patrick Leahy said today on the Senate floor:

The message is very clear. The message to the NSA is now coming from every branch of government, from every corner of our nation, 'NSA you have gone too far.' [The report says] what many of us have been saying, that just because we can collect massive amounts of data doesn't mean we should do so.

10 Midweek PM Reads

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 02:30 PM PST

Here’s what I’m looking through on the ride home today:

• No Improvement in Public's Views of Economic News (Pew Research)
• BBRG View: Bloomberg’s Favorite Toy (New Republic)
• Why companies are raising their dividends (Felix Salmon)
• New mortgages to get pricier next year for borrowers without perfect credit or big down payments. (WSJ)
• Is your nest egg holding up? Here are a few ways to tell. (WSJ)
• Smart beta-blocking (FT Alphaville)
• Bundling and Pricing Innovation (Asymco)
• Digital Exports Dwarf Other Industries, So Why Is The USTR Ignoring Them? (TechDirt) see also Instagram Direct, Twitter DMs, and the Social/Communications Map (Stratechery)
• Pope Francis gets high ratings from Catholics, according to poll (Washington Post)
• Universe Really Is a Hologram According to New Simulations (Scientific American)

What are you reading?

 

wages and prices

Just How Big Is Walmart?

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 11:30 AM PST


Source: MotherJones

 

Morgan Housel: A Conversation With Barry Ritholtz

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 06:30 AM PST

I have an interesting chat with Morgan Housel:


Fool.com

10 Midweek AM Reads

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 06:00 AM PST

Here's what I'm reading on the way to the office:

• FOMC Meeting Something of a Nailbiter (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)

• Twerking, Nelson Mandela, 'How to tie a tie': Google's top searches of 2013 (Today) see also Google Trends — Top Charts (Google)

• Tech bubble? What's different from 2000 (Fidelity)

• Did the Housing Market Already Digest Higher Mortgage Rates? (Reformed Broker) but see Housing Market Setting Up for Another Crash (EconMatters)

 

Continues here

Always Low Wages? Wal-Mart’s Other Choices

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 05:15 AM PST

Yesterday, we looked at the benefit to McDonald’s of having its workers subsidized by state and federal aid. Today, its Wal-Mart's turn. Recall our discussion last month on the related subject of “How McDonald’s and Wal-Mart Became Welfare Queens.” We learned that employees of these two companies are often the largest recipients of aid in their states.

McDonald’s recently found itself in the spotlight courtesy of its "McResource" line — the company help line that helps its poverty-level, full time employees enroll in various welfare programs. A recording of that McResource line sparked outrage, driving this issue into public view.

More recently, Wal-Mart's holiday public-relations headache began when a Canton, Ohio, store decided to hold a food drive for needy local families for the holidays. What made this a PR nightmare was that the needy families were full time Wal-Mart employees who were working in the store holding a food drive.

Thus, our questions over the arc of these columns about some of the largest retailers in America — Wal-Mart is the single largest private employer in the country; McDonald’s, the largest fast food chain – are simply this:

Continues here

How Overheated Is the Art Market? Maybe Not So Much

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 04:00 AM PST

Auction prices for 25 artists 1988-2013

Earlier this week, Felix Salmon did a sensible thing. Instead of fulminating against the rising prices of the art market and declaring it a bubble that must necessarily burst, he asked the good people at Artnet—the very folks who brought price transparency to the art market—to produce a chart for him of 25 top artists he selected and their overall auction sales from 1988 to present.

What he discovered in this self-described “unscientific” exercise is that the the market for those particular artists, when adjusted for inflation, remains lower than either the 1989 peak or even the 2007 peak that followed.

A good sport, Salmon concluded that the inevitable art market crash may not be imminent even if it remained certain. This little inquiry was good as far as it went but it didn’t really go far enough. In the first instance, the art market is always a bubble if your definition of a bubble is when assets trade for exchange values disconnected from their economic value. Since art has no economic value, the art market is always and ever a bubble.

If scare words are useful, we might as well call the art market what it is, a pyramid scheme. Art is only valuable if there are two more people coming after you who want to buy it for more than you paid, inflation or no. Why is that worth saying? Because it raises another way to look at the art market in terms of overall spending on works of art.

Katherine Markley, the high priestess of Artnet’s data created a chart of Artnet’s gross auction data over the past quarter century. Remembering that the numbers grow not only with the volume of dollars spent upon art but with the number of auction houses from which Artnet collects data, here is a chart of gross recorded sales that we’ve adjusted for inflation (so any errors are my own.)

Artnet Gross Auction Sales 1988-2012 Inflation Adjusted

It’s easy to see that after a long fallow period, the market began to advance in 2006. Then, it barely looked back. See that dip in 2009, it is nearly the same inflation-adjusted level as 1990. Again, that’s probably because Artnet covered many more auction houses by 2009 than it had in 1990 and those global auction houses were seeing more money spent on art, even in the midst of a credit crisis.

That spike in 2011? It’s the Chinese auction houses going through the roof. We’re now all aware that good number of those reported sales were never, in fact, completed. Nonetheless, the chart seems to support the idea that more buyers are coming in behind those who entered the market in the last generation. Demand would seem to be continuing to grow. That offers a counter-theory of the art market: growing global wealth is going into art and artifacts that were previously not valued monetarily.

Another way to look at what’s being spent on art is to see what’s happening to average prices. This is a very raw measure that we asked Artnet to provide, simply divide the total dollar volume by the total number of lots. It won’t tell you a lot but it does give a sense of whether the growth in auction volume is a product of excess liquidity—in which case, a stable number of items would become increasingly valuable (not unlike gold)—or whether the growth is the result of shift toward placing greater value on cultural objects.

The average price chart, adjusted for inflation, suggests the latter. After the crash of the 1989-90 peak, average lot prices stabilized. They rose again as the latest art boom took off but seem to be reverting to a new mean for this era’s art market. Even this year’s exceedingly strong numbers don’t pull the average price out of register. The chart doesn’t show it but the $45k figure would only raise the graph back to 2011′s not-too-scary levels.

Are art prices very strong? Yes. Could they be too strong and indicated a pull-back in the market? Sure. In fact, many in the market would like to see that happen for a number of reasons. The art market could crash next year as the gold market has this year. But it doesn’t look to be in a crazy pattern reminiscent of the worst years in 1989-90.

Artnet Avg Price 1988-2012 Inflation Adjusted

 

Everything is a Remix: The iPhone

Posted: 18 Dec 2013 03:00 AM PST

Former NSA Official: “We Are Now In A Police State”

Posted: 17 Dec 2013 10:30 PM PST

32-year NSA Veteran Who Created Mass Surveillance System Says Government Use of Data Gathered Through Spying "Is a Totalitarian Process"

Bill Binney is the high-level NSA executive who created the agency's mass surveillance program for digital information.  A 32-year NSA veteran widely regarded as a "legend" within the agency, Binney was the senior technical director within the agency and managed thousands of NSA employees.

Binney has been interviewed by virtually all of the mainstream media, including CBS, ABC, CNN, New York Times, USA Today, Fox News, PBS and many others.

Last year, Binney held his thumb and forefinger close together, and said:

We are, like, that far from a turnkey totalitarian state.

But today, Binney told Washington's Blog that the U.S. has already become  a police state.

By way of background, the government is spying on virtually everything we do.

All of the information  gained by the NSA through spying is then shared with federal, state and local agencies, and they are using that information to prosecute petty crimes such as drugs and taxes. The agencies are instructed to intentionally "launder" the information gained through spying, i.e. to pretend that they got the information in a more legitimate way … and to hide that from defense attorneys and judges.

This is a bigger deal than you may realize, as legal experts say that there are so many federal and state laws in the United States, that no one can keep track of them all … and everyone violates laws every day without even knowing it.

The NSA also ships Americans' most confidential, sensitive information to foreign countries like Israel (and here), the UK and other countries … so they can "unmask" the information and give it back to the NSA … or use it for their own purposes.

Binney told us today:

The main use of the collection from these [NSA spying] programs [is] for law enforcement. [See the 2 slides below].

These slides give the policy of the DOJ/FBI/DEA etc. on how to use the NSA data. In fact, they instruct that none of the NSA data is referred to in courts – cause it has been acquired without a warrant.

So, they have to do a "Parallel Construction" and not tell the courts or prosecution or defense the original data used to arrest people. This I call: a "planned programed perjury policy" directed by US law enforcement.

And, as the last line on one slide says, this also applies to "Foreign Counterparts."

This is a total corruption of the justice system not only in our country but around the world. The source of the info is at the bottom of each slide. This is a totalitarian process – means we are now in a police state.

Here are the two slides which Binney pointed us to:

A slide from a presentation about a secretive information-sharing program run by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's Special Operations Division (SOD) is seen in this undated photo (Reuters / John Shiffman)

A slide from a presentation about a secretive information-sharing program run by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's Special Operations Division (SOD) is seen in this undated photo (Reuters / John Shiffman)

(Source: Reuters via RT)

We asked Binney a follow-up question:

You say "this also applies to 'Foreign Counterparts.'"  Does that mean that foreign agencies can also "launder" the info gained from NSA spying?  Or that data gained through foreign agencies' spying can be "laundered" and used by U.S. agencies?

Binney responded:

For countries like the five eyes (US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand) and probably some others it probably works both ways.  But for others that have relationships with FBI or DEA etc.,  they probably are given the data to used to arrest people but are not told the source or given copies of the data.

(See this for background on the five eyes.)

View past discussions between Washington's Blog and Binney here, here, here and here.

.

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