The Big Picture

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee: Aziz Ansari
Succinct Summation on Week’s Events July 11 2014
Marijuana Laws in the United States
3 reasons to ignore all these “correction” calls
10 Friday AM Reads
It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!
Bank fines cleaning up ‘corporate culture’
1964 Ferrari 250 GT Lusso

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee: Aziz Ansari

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 04:00 PM PDT

Source: Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee

Succinct Summation on Week’s Events July 11 2014

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 12:30 PM PDT

Succinct Summations week ending July 11th

Positives:

1. Despite a nasty opening on Wednesday, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its all-time high.
2. Japanese consumer confidence rose to 41.1 from 39.3, the highest of the year.
3. Average gas price is down to $3.64, the lowest levels since April
4. The Fed announced they will end their taper in October with a $15B reduction in stimulus.
5. Initial jobless claims fell to 304k, down from 315k last week and below expectations.
6. AAII bearish sentiment had the biggest one week increase since April, working off some froth is healthy.
7. Job openings in May increased to 4.63M from 4.46, the most since June '07.
8. MBA home applications rose 3.7% w/o/w

Negatives:

1. Troubles with Banco Espirito Santo (Portgual) spooked the market on Wednesday, the S&P had its largest gap down since early March, the Russell 2000 had the largest gap down since '12.
2. German exports drop 1.1% in May m/o/m, more than the estimate of down .4% and April is revised lower
3. Baltic Dry Index
4. Japanese machinery orders cratered 19.5% m/o/m
5. NFIB small business optimism index fell to 95 from 96.6
6. Student loan debt outstanding in rose to yet another record high in May.

Thanks, Batman

Marijuana Laws in the United States

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 11:30 AM PDT

Source: The Economist

3 reasons to ignore all these “correction” calls

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 09:00 AM PDT

click for video

Source: Yahoo Finance

10 Friday AM Reads

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 07:00 AM PDT

My morning reads (continues here):

• The only reason investing works is because things can go wrong (TRB)
• What exactly is conglomerate Espírito Santo International (MoneyBeat) see also Temper tantrum, tempest, or teapot? (FT Alphaville)
• QEInfinity Not (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch)
• Mini Madoffs abound (NYT)

continues here

It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 05:33 AM PDT

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit?

That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying on the usual suspects as a source of insight. This is especially the case when the usual suspects have been so wrong for so long about these issues.

Ask yourself the following questions:

• When has the mainstream media made a timely warning about an imminent recession?

• Has the punditocracy ever correctly identified a bubble in real time?

• When have the public's perspectives on market valuation ever been right?

Look at mutual fund flows if you want to see how wrong individuals are; check out various valuation methods to see how much bias and data cherry-picking goes on.

Continues here

Bank fines cleaning up ‘corporate culture’

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 05:00 AM PDT

Source: Yahoo Finance

1964 Ferrari 250 GT Lusso

Posted: 11 Jul 2014 03:00 AM PDT

This is a classic lovely of which there were only 351 produced. The 3.0 L V12 engine cranked out only 240 hp.

Owned by the likes of such as Steve McQueen and Eric Clapton, it was going for as little as $400k in 2010, but today a clean version sells for $2.1m today.