The Big Picture

The Impact of Liquidity Regulation on Banks
John Oliver: State Legislatures and ALEC
10 Monday PM Reads
Money and happiness: The link between happiness and income is fraying
People in Emerging Markets Catch Up to Advanced Economies in Life Satisfaction
Holiday Shopping: Here Comes the Silly Season!
10 Monday AM Reads
How Google Works

The Impact of Liquidity Regulation on Banks

Posted: 04 Nov 2014 02:00 AM PST

John Oliver: State Legislatures and ALEC

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 04:30 PM PST

While midterm coverage is largely focused on the parts of Congress that do very little, vital (and bizarre) midterm elections are going unexamined. State legislators pass a lot of bills, and some of that efficiency is thanks to a group called ALEC that writes legislation for them. It's as shady as it sounds!

via John Oliver, HBO

10 Monday PM Reads

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 02:30 PM PST

My afternoon train reads:

• Gold Bulls Retreat With $1.3 Billion Pulled From Funds (Bloomberg) But See Switzerland’s Gold Bug Moment (Bloomberg)
• Bill Gross: The Trouble with Porosity and Prosperity (Janus)
• Moby Ben, or, The Washington Super-Whale: Hedge Fundies, the Federal Reserve, and Bernanke-Hatred (Delong)
• What Have Economists Ever Done for Us? (BV)
• This Is the Equation for Happiness (Time)
• Four Lessons From Taylor Swift's Latest Hit Record (Businessweek)
• Come Out, Come Out: The Tim Cook Moment Is Here (Re/Code)
• So You Want To Fix The Housing Crisis (TechCrunch)
• The world's climate change watchdog may be underestimating global warming (Washington Post)
• How Building a Black Hole for Interstellar Led to an Amazing Scientific Discovery (Wired)

What are you reading?

Renting, Not Owning

Source: NY Times

Money and happiness: The link between happiness and income is fraying

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 11:30 AM PST

Source: The Economist

People in Emerging Markets Catch Up to Advanced Economies in Life Satisfaction

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 09:30 AM PST

Holiday Shopping: Here Comes the Silly Season!

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:00 AM PST

Forget August. The real silly season is upon us.

As evidence I present the forecast of a 13 percent increase in holiday sales made by Forrester Research, as cited in the New York Times this morning. Color me skeptical.

As we noted about this time last year, these sales projections are as much of an annual holiday ritual as Thanksgiving and overeating. Every year, numerous trade groups, research firms and other assorted media shills release their holiday sales forecasts. The data set of failures is so large that even if anyone gets it right, it should be chalked to random chance. That is what happens when you are so wrong for so long and don’t bother to think about why you are wrong.

I am glad that Forrester has the ability to forecast a 13 percent jump in this year's holiday shopping. To reach that conclusion, it only needed to figure out:

• How much income people will earn between now and the holidays, minus their actual expenses, plus their availability of credit.

• The psychology of how much Americans will actually be spending money on gifts.

• The weather.

• Any other random events — ISIS, Ebola, Taylor Swift — that may interfere with holiday cheer.

• Knowing how much savings Americans have accumulated during the year.

I am only kidding about that last one, because these are Americans we are talking about, and their savings rate could substitute as a slide at a water park.

Continues here

10 Monday AM Reads

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 05:30 AM PST

Welcome to November, and the best 6 months of the year for equities. Oh, and the mid-term elections are tomorrow. And, our morning train reads are here:

• Returns on Muni Bonds Soar (WSJ)
• U.S. Stocks Headed Into a Sweet Spot (WSJ) but see What Goes Up Must at Least Slow Down (NYT)
• Mark Dow: Precious Metals. The Second Wave of the Bubble Unwind is Upon (Behavioral Macro)
• The best advice in business: 40 execs reveal their secrets to success (Fortune)
• Mega-influence: These 42 dominate super PAC donations (USA Today)