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Saturday, March 16, 2013

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


New Site Design Coming This Weekend!

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 05:00 PM PDT

You’ve  been hearing about the development of a new site now for quite a while — we are now in Countdown mode — less than 24 hours to go!

I write up some details and pull together some screens how the new design developed (I might even find some shots of the history of the site).

More details tomorrow . . .

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (March 15, 2013)

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:00 PM PDT

Week ending March 15: Succinct Summation of Weeks Events

Positives:

1. The Dow notched 10th straight days of gains — first time since 1996.
2. Retail sales crush, 1.1% vs expectations of 0.5% (largest beat since December ’09).
3. VIX falls to it's lowest level in six years.
4. 16 of the 18 largest fin institutions pass stress tests + capital plans approved by the Fed.
5. Jobless claims fall to 332k, the second lowest weekly reading in the post-recession period.
6. Euro-zone Q4 employment falls to lowest levels since Q1 2006.
7. AAII Bulls rose to 45.4 from 31.1, 6 week high (Bears fell to 32 from 38.5, a 4 week low)
8. DAX index is now within 1.07% away from making an all time high.
9. Australian companies added 71.5k jobs in February, the biggest monthly gain since July 2000.
10. Only 9th time in the history DJIA has closed at an all-time high 8 days in a row.
11. NFIB small business optimism index was 90.8 — up 1.9 points in February.

Negatives:

1. Complacency? VIX falls to it's lowest level in six years.
2. Hollywood sweetheart Mila Kunis just bought stocks! (when she quits to become a day trader, liquidate everything and go short).
3. Dow up only 2.85% over its 9 day win streak — weakest such streak since 1964
4. JP Morgan and Goldman are forced to resubmit their capital plans.
5. Gas spikes drive CPI higher, accounting for almost ¾ of the 0.7% rise, which was the biggest increase since 6. June 2009. However core CPI which excludes food and energy rose by a mere 0.2%, pretty benign.
7. U.K mfr production declined 3% y/y for January vs -1.5%.
8. U of M Consumer confidence plunges to 71.8 in March — biggest miss on record.
9. Eurozone Ind Prod for Jan down -1.3% Y/Y (Greek ind prod in January fell 4.8% y/y)
10. Empire Manufacturing comes in at 9.24 vs an expected 10
11. U.S. January business inventories rise 1%, sales drop 0.3%
12. PPI rose by 0.7%, mostly due to higher energy prices, which rose 3% in February.
13. The pound is down almost 7% YTD vs Dollar.

David Kotok: “I’m Raising Cash”

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 11:26 AM PDT

Raising Cash
David Kotok
March 15, 2013

 

 

A cash reserve has been raised in our US ETF accounts. A partial cash reserve has been raised in non-US ETF accounts. Our clients will see them in the online-access versions of their account statements.

Why did we raise cash?

Stock markets have become extended, particularly in the United States. Nothing goes straight up or straight down forever. History shows stock markets can have 3% to 7% corrections at any time.

The present long-term bull market started in March 2009. It was reaffirmed in November 2012. It is still intact. That said, most measures of market movement, sentiment, direction, and momentum have reached levels of intensity that approach extremes. This is primarily a US phenomenon.

We believe prudence requires a cash reserve as activities in Washington and the rest of the world continue to unfold. A part of the stock market’s momentum is driven by events. The present schedule and scale of events is not conducive of a fully invested position anymore. That could change rapidly.

FOR TODAY, we have instituted and are maintaining a temporary cash reserve. Note the words for today.

In this very fluid, event-driven world, one has to be prepared to change quickly. The temporary cash reserve may be re-committed at any time.

We fly to Paris on Sunday and on to Dubai by mid-week. Discussions of global events will ensue.

We will report from the road as we can.

~~~

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors

Financial Media Then and Now

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 08:30 AM PDT

The original was on March 15, 2001:

10 Friday AM Reads

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 06:45 AM PDT

My mostly whale-free reading list:

• Dallas Fed Cap Seen Shrinking U.S. Banking Units by Half (Bloomberg)
• Inflation is *Not* What We Should Be Worried About (Economist’s View) see also A new era for gold? (FT Alphaville)
• Small Print, Big Problem (The Nation)
• How Monsanto outfoxed the Obama administration (Salon)
• Fidelity’s ETF Fee Spurs a Backlash (WSJ) see also Fidelity faces more complaints about “float income” (Reuters)
• Iraq war costs U.S. more than $2 trillion (Reuters)
• Why RSS still matters (The Verge)
• Why I Stopped Pirating and Started Paying for Media (Lifehacker)
• If You Wear Google's New Glasses You Are An Asshole (Gawker)
• Here’s the Invitation to the Secret Floating Strip Club Made Just For Wall Streeters (Business Insider)

What are you reading?

 

J.P. Morgan Misled Regulators and Investors, Ignored Risks in Big Trades

Source: WSJ

JP Morgan Chase: Out of Control (Complete Rosner Report)

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 05:30 AM PDT

What is Consciousness?

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 05:00 AM PDT

Click for full virtual experience

Source: Information is Beautiful

Bankistan Vanquishes America

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 04:30 AM PDT

Is there a single doubt left in your mind?

Are you still a believer in Rufus T. Firefly Jamie Dimon as the world’s smartest banker?

Is there a scintilla of wonder left in your mind that the giant banks are legitimate?

Have you come around to understanding — finally — what some of us have long understood about banks?

Are you willing to accept the truth about these corporate behemoths — that they are a horrific combination of economically dangerous, criminally inept, led by pathologically lying CEOs?

Do you harbor any doubts that the giant banks are anything less than ruthlessly efficient criminal enterprises?

Can you — finally — admit that our bank-created financial crisis of 2008-09 has led us to where we are today?

Do you understand the only options presented as a result of that — either corporate bankruptcy and nationalization or a completely artificial Fed driven recovery? (The third option was a Japan-like multi decade recession). Do you realize that the feeble recovery, the slow, deleveraging-driven process of gradual economic healing was the result of how our policy makers chose?

Do you recognize that the world of banking is divided into two camps?

On one side, there are those who understand that the giant banks must be broken up. They are dismayed at the large banks  under-capitalization, over-leverage and opacity. These folks have figured out that these banks are not only too big to fail, but are so large that they are too big to succeed, and that the best route is to let insolvent banks fail. They are unhappy that our finance sector is a trillion dollar black box. They know that the majority of giant banks’ profits come from bailouts, and subsidies. This group is dismayed at the corruption of our political system by financiers. They understands huge banks are anti-competitive, a blaspheme against capitalism. They are shocked about  corruption of even the most fundamental measures of interest rates such as LIBOR. They are stunned that bankers have overturned a bedrock, fundamental principle of our society — the rule of law rule — with the threat of disrupting the world’s economy if prosecuted for their crimes.

On the other side lay the bank apologists, corrupted politicians, and crony capitalists. They advocate the Big Lie of the financial crisis. They choose to ignore the facts and data that disprove their narrative. They continue to push the lies that the bailouts were a good investment. (They weren’t). They work against the Bipartisan consensus that the giant banks should be broken up. They ignore the many former bank CEOs who call for the break up of "Too Big to Fail" banks. They mandated that GSEs were banned from Lobbying, but they made sure that the big banks retained their influence peddling and hold on Washington DC.

They no longer represent the voters of their districts, but instead are the elected representatives of Bankistan.

And unless we do something — and soon — they will vanquish America.

 

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