The Big Picture

10 Tuesday PM Reads
Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV 3:00 (Trish Regan)
S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points
Bank of Cyprus: Best Bank for Private Banking 2012
10 Tuesday AM Reads
What I Am Thinking About (April Edition)
The Scale of the Universe

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 03:30 PM PDT

My afternoon train reads:

• Gold to grey: Societe Generale's big (bearish) scorecard on "the end of the gold era" (Alphaville)
• Traders' April Fools Pranks Were Once Routine on U.S. Exchanges (Bloomberg)
• Why Abundant Oil Hasn’t Cut Gasoline Prices (Businessweek)
• Cyprus & Lehman (Dr. Ed’s Blog)
• Bair: Regulators Let Big Banks Look Safer Than They Are (WSJ)
• Why Retailers Ask for Your ZIP Code (Bucks)
• Three Myths About Housing Market Rebound (WSJ)
• The Greatest Disappointment about Obama (Crooks and Liars)
• Climate Maverick to Quit NASA (NYT)
• Seinfeld Rerun Gold: Generated $3.1B in Syndication (since it was last aired on NBC in 1998) (FT.com)

What are you reading?

Record ETF Inflows Help Fuel Stock Rally

Source: Marketbeat

Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV 3:00 (Trish Regan)

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 11:30 AM PDT

I will be guest hosting with the lovely Trish Regan at Bloomberg TV from 3:00 pm to 4:00 pm on Street Smart.

We will talk Bull market rallies, sentiment, and the Fed.

Should be lots of fun — Check it out at their live streamer on TV.

S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 09:00 AM PDT

Click to enlarge

Source: Standard & Poor's, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, March 31, 2013

Each quarter, J.P. Morgan Asset Management puts out a lovely guide to the markets. Its filled with all sorts of excellent and informative charts — its 70 pages long, and its free.

Check it out.

Bank of Cyprus: Best Bank for Private Banking 2012

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 08:00 AM PDT

Funny, Bank of Cyprus hasn’t updated this page yet . . . .

Hat tip Scott F

10 Tuesday AM Reads

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 07:00 AM PDT

My morning reads:

• Growls Keep Coming From the Bear’s Den (WSJ)
• Dividends Continue to Rise (Crossing Wall Street)
• Raw-Material Bull Market Fading as Supply Expands: Commodities (Bloomberg)
• Why It's Still Hard to Get a Mortgage (Real Time Economics)
• The April Fool's economy (Wonkblog) see also Investors Ignore Negativity at Their Peril (WSJ)
• How to Win the Bloodthirsty Battle for Tech Talent (Fast Company)
• Poll Finds Banks Are Too Big, Most Americans Say (Huffington Post)
• The simple, boring reason why disability insurance has exploded (Wonkblog)
• How Memes Are Orchestrated by the Man (Atlantic)
• Green Meteorite May Be from Mercury, a First (Space)

What are you reading?

European industry flocks to U.S. to take advantage of cheaper gas

Source: Washington Post

What I Am Thinking About (April Edition)

Posted: 02 Apr 2013 04:15 AM PDT

The start of a new quarter is a good time to think about the factors that drive your investment returns. What is it that is propelling markets higher? What risks exist? What might you be overlooking? What variant perceptions can you develop apart from the crowd?

The following are the various ideas kicking around my head:

• The economy continues to slowly heal.

• The Federal Reserve should be interventionist in Depressions, but Laissez Faire during Recessions. Greenspan did not understand this; I hope Bernanke does.

• Investors now are carrying cash at 16 month highs, according to AAII.

• “Hunches” are a terrible investment theme.

• I much prefer Dividends to Share BuyBacks. The academics disagree with me. History does not.

• This is now the 6th, about to become the 5th, best rally in market history. (Merrill Lynch)

• Original thought is shockingly rare.

• The Fed is helping, Congress is hurting.

• Market Tops are long drawn out processes that very, very few people can call on a timely basis. You are not one of those people.

• The greatest ally of any crisis is time. 10 Years post crisis, it is likely to be a blip — and we will be on to the next crisis.

• Market Breadth remains constructive; there are no signs of selective buying or lagging of Advance-Decline Lines;

• Ain’t no cure for stupid.

• There is an enormous difference between Predictions and Probabilities. Beware forecasts dressed up in the mathematical guise of statistics.

• America does not have a debt crisi, she has a Pundit Crisis.

• Consuming more information does not help you make better decisions — rather, it helps you be more confident about bad decision you are making.

• 9/11 was 12 years ago; 1987 was over 25 years ago.

• Blah blah blah Euro blah blah blah Cyprus blah blah blah ECB.

• CEOs who cite” Uncertainty” are kidding themselves. They are ripe to be disrupted, see their companies marginalized and their best employees stolen from them. (They have my gratitude)

• Pick three money losing blogs to remove from your RSS feed, blog roll and daily routine. (Buh-bye)

• This remains the most hated rally in Wall Street history (TBP 2009).

• It is exceedingly difficult to change the world. It is apparently impossible to change human nature.