The Big Picture

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• The Beastles: Ill Submarine
• How You Can Change Your Decision Making
• 10 Monday PM Reads
• Job Fair Shocks Fed Governor Raskin
• US Housing Realty Check
• Shorter WSJ: Beware Target Date Funds
• 10 Monday Reads
• The Latest Fuckery from FINRA
• Monday Morning Melt Up
• Batman vs Superman Box Office Battle

The Beastles: Ill Submarine Posted: 18 Jun 2013 02:00 AM PDT Dig it: Published on Jun 6, 2013 Audio mixed by dj BC. Video by Thriftshop XL. From the album “Ill Submarine” www.thebeastles.com www.djbc.net www.bootieatl.com dj BC spins Saturday nights at Gatsby’s in Atlanta: www.gatsbysatlanta.com

How You Can Change Your Decision Making Posted: 17 Jun 2013 04:30 PM PDT I like the thought process here: How You Can Change Your Decision Making Raise your awareness: Incomplete information and lots of uncertainty leads to poor outcomes Put yourself in the shoes of others: Consider the point of view or experience of other people Recognise the role of skill and luck: Sorting skill from luck is essential for evaluating outcomes Get feedback: Maintaining a decision-making journal allows you to audit your decisions Create a checklist: It will alert you to think clearly about what you might advertently overlook Perform a premortem: Assume that the decision has failed; look for reasons why Know what you can't know: In decisions that involve systems with many interacting parts, causal links are frequently unclear Read the full piece at Think Twice

10 Monday PM Reads Posted: 17 Jun 2013 02:00 PM PDT My afternoon train reading: • Watch What Fed Says, Not What It Does (Real Time Economics) see also Abe-Bernanke 1-2 Punch Pummeling World's Top Carry Trade (Bloomberg) • Are There Any Stock Values Left? (It turns out yes)  (Morningstar) • Google stock split closer to reality (CNNMoney) • Analysis: The Myth of the US Housing Bubble (World Property Channel) see also Here Comes the Housing Inventory (Redfin) • LinkedIn Builds Its Publishing Presence (NYT) • What FDR Hated About Glass-Steagall (Echoes) • Unnatural Disaster: How mortgage servicers are strong-arming the victims of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado (among others) (New Republic) • Filmmaker picks a copyright fight with "Happy Birthday" (ArsTechnica) • Your Hidden Censor: What Your Mind Will Not Let You See (Scientific American) What are you reading?   Euro Becomes the Port in a Storm Source: WSJ

Job Fair Shocks Fed Governor Raskin Posted: 17 Jun 2013 01:30 PM PDT Raskin starts at 3:30 Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin: I became interested in this question of quality somewhat by accident. I did something atypical one day. I decided on my way into work I would stop at a jobs fair. There was a jobs fair at a local community college close to my home and I thought, I'm going to, you know, instead of pounding through all this heavy data that we typically look at at the board of governors, let me just go into this job fair. It turned out to be a really interesting morning, I have to say. I should preface this by saying – purely anecdotal here, this is not something that is going to count as hard science or pass much muster in terms of statistical significant. But it was really interesting to me. I went in and I have to say the kinds of jobs that were being offered surprised me. There were a number of restaurant jobs, some jobs from the military. There was one job from a community bank. Then there were a slew of jobs from, of all places, swimming pool companies. I thought that was kind of interesting. When I inquired about what these jobs were, they were lifeguard jobs, which I thought also was quite telling because back in the day to be a lifeguard I didn't think quite required an advanced degree. These were the kinds of jobs we got in high school summers, I thought. I was about to leave when I did see a sign that actually said IT jobs. So I thought, 'here we go, here is going to be something pretty significant.' So I went up to the person behind the both and they said, 'we've got two kinds of IT jobs here: we've got armed security jobs, and we've got cyber security.' So I thought, well, I'm probably not the armed security type, so tell me about the cyber security jobs. This is how you go about getting it. You take your resume and you put it into a database. And this firm essentially collects resumes and then they kind of troll for government contracts. And when they find a government contract that might use your resume then they call you. Then you might actually get a job. 'So what I need to do is put in my resume and then I'll be able to get this job?' And she said 'yes.' And I said: 'while I'm waiting can I go to some other firms and throw my resume into their databases as well?' And she said 'oh no, you can't do that, because you're going to sign a letter of intent.' And that letter of intent is basically an exclusivity agreement that says that by putting your resume in here you agree to not put your resume anywhere else. I said 'well, gosh, that's going to be kind of rough. But tell me: what are the percentage chances that I'll get a job?' 'You know, we're doing pretty well. Maybe a 25 percent chance.' 'How do these jobs pay?' 'They pay by the hour.' 'Do they pay benefits?' 'No benefits, it's a straight hourly job. And it's temporary so it's going to be until the government contract is completed.' This was really eye-opening for me. Hat tip Reuters

US Housing Realty Check Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:30 AM PDT Click for interactive graphic Source: Economist

Shorter WSJ: Beware Target Date Funds Posted: 17 Jun 2013 09:00 AM PDT Missing the Target Source: WSJ   You may have missed the WSJ’s takedown on Target-date funds this weekend. Its a must. The idea of target date funds are a form of auto-pilot that automatically shifts allocations into more bonds less stocks as the investor ages. Target date funds now manage about $550 billion dollars. The problem with these funds — aside from high fees and higher-costs — is how out of phase its been with the markets for retiring babyboomers. Many of them have found they are selling equities into weakness and buying bonds into a 30 year bull market which is looking kinda old and shaky. Anyone with a 401k or who uses these funds should definitely give the article a read.     Source: Missing the Target LIAM PLEVEN and JOE LIGHT WSJ, June 14, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578541831083543670.html

10 Monday Reads Posted: 17 Jun 2013 07:00 AM PDT My morning reads: • End of Easing Spurs S&P 500 Gains of 16% as Economy Grows (Bloomberg) see also Recent Swings Barely Register on Volatility Meter (WSJ) • Corporate Share Buybacks Often Disappoint Investors (Institutional Investor) • How the Robots Lost: High-Frequency Trading’s Rise and Fall (Bloomberg) see also Have We Hit Peak HFT? (Tabb Forum) • Intelligent Investor: Why the Markets' Latest Stumbles Are Good News (Moneybeat) • The purpose of this site (The Reformed Broker) • A global empire back in balance (Zev Capital Research) • Iranians Celebrate Surprise Rohani Win as Reason for Hope (Bloomberg) • Cracks in the Periodic Table  (Scientific American) • On "Geek" Versus "Nerd" (Slackpropagation) • Timesuck: America’s 50 Best Cities (Businessweek) What are you reading?   Euro Becomes the Port in a Storm Source: WSJ

The Latest Fuckery from FINRA Posted: 17 Jun 2013 04:30 AM PDT What kind of fuckery is this? You made me miss the Slick Rick gig (oh Slick Rick) You thought I didn’t love you when I did (when I did) Can’t believe you played me out like that (Ahhh) -Amy Winehouse,  Me & Mr Jones     I have throughout my career in finance, studiously avoided having much to do with FINRA, WallStreet’s woefully corrupt self-regulatory entity. I never got into trouble when I was on the Sell Side (i.e., series 7 licensed individual), so I never experienced their crony-flavored version of justice. But I was very much aware of their role in screwing investors — out of their legal rights to a trial (via mandatory arbitration) and thus out of their monies. If you want a primer on this, check out William Cohan’s series on FINRA arbitrations. It is astounding. The latest nonsense from this wholly self serving cesspool of corruption is detailed by Susan Antilla, in Dealbook’s A Rise in Requests From Brokers to Wipe the Slate Clean. It turns out that bad brokers can have their records of misdeeds, if not expunged, well then cleaned up quite a bit. Try doing that with a felony or even misdemeanor if you are not a juvenile. I cannot begin to express my disdain for this organization, which serves the interests of wirehouses and not investors. Indeed, I believe they have done immeasurable damage to individual investors over the decades — through their kangeroo (non)courts, and by the way the “Self” regulate, an inherent contradiction in terms if ever there was one. Don’t take my word for it. Read Cohan’s series, and do some digging into their formation and background. Just don’t have a large meal first . . .       Sources: A Rise in Requests From Brokers to Wipe the Slate Clean SUSAN ANTILLA NYT, June 10, 2013   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/10/a-rise-in-requests-from-brokers-to-wipe-the-slate-clean/ See also: Wall Street Justice System Is a Kangaroo Court William D. Cohan Bloomberg, January 12, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/wall-street-s-justice-is-a-kangaroo-court-commentary-by-william-d-cohan.html Wall Street's Captive Arbitrators Strike Again William D. Cohan Bloomberg, July 8, 2012   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-08/wall-street-s-captive-arbitrators-strike-again.html Time to shut down Finra’s arbitration panels William D. Cohan Investment News, July 30, 2012 http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20120730/FREE/120739999

Monday Morning Melt Up Posted: 17 Jun 2013 03:15 AM PDT click for updated futures     Good Monday morning, and welcome to the melt up. Japanese stocks are bouncing 2 – 3% after getting schmeissed last week and month. From a 96% twelve month gain, we saw the yen strengthen. Not coincidentally, the Nikkei Dow fell over 20%. Last week saw the Yen’s biggest weekly advance in four years. That counter trend rally seems to have reversed, and once again the Yen is falling — its down nearly 0.5% versus its 16 most-traded counterparts today. This week we have the Federal Reserve meeting, and you should, if you have any situational awareness whatsoever, already know the outcome of that meeting. Bernanke to Hilsenrath to anyone-who-is-paying-attention is the FOMC version of baseball’s Tinker to Evers to Chance. I believe it is an analysis of the facts and history, and not a forecast, to suggest that the FOMC will stand pat. Anything can and will happen — Humans are involved — but the odds are very much against it. And if you want even more bullish data, Bloomberg reminds us that “equities tend to rise when the Federal Reserve begins reducing efforts to stimulate the economy.” ~~~ Back shortly . . .

Batman vs Superman Box Office Battle Posted: 17 Jun 2013 03:00 AM PDT Who wins in the battle of the box office between Superman and Batman? Bloomberg’s Nejra Cehic pits the superheroes against each other as the latest offering in the Superman film series rakes in $113 million on its opening weekend. Bloomberg June 17 2013 Superman returns to movie theatres this week, with “Man of Steel” making its U.S. debut on Friday. It’s projected to open with sales of a hundred-and-15 million dollars in North America. But even with Superman and Batman on their team, DC Comics movies still lag far behind the earnings of the rival Marvel super-heroes. Bloomberg’s own Man of Steel Paul Allen explains. Source: Bloomberg June 14 20013 ~~~ Dan DiDio and Jim Lee, co-publishers at DC Entertainment, talk about the Superman comics and the newest film based on the series, Warner Bros.’ “Man of Steel.” They speak with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” Source: Bloomberg, June 14 2013

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