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Friday, March 18, 2011

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Is This Why Bill Gross Dumped Treasuries?

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 03:00 AM PDT

A couple of revealing charts from the Fed's Flow of Funds data.   Both show net flows into Treasuries by creditor type and the Federal Government's borrowing during each quarter.   Note, the quarterly data is annualized.

The first chart illustrates how QE2 flushed domestics out of Treasuries and effectively funded 63 percent of the budget deficit in Q4.  The Treasury is prohibited from directly selling bonds to the central bank, but effectively finances the government through POMO.

Given that a large portion of the Rest of World category are central banks recycling BOP surpluses,  it's likely that 90 percent of the U.S. budget deficit in Q4 was funded by central banks.    You think this may have anything to do with what's happening in the commodity markets?   That is, the central banks' printing presses providing the fuel for speculators?

Furthermore, we ask: who is going to finance the U.S. budget deficit when QE2 ends, especially at a sub 3.50 percent 10-year Treasury rate?  Bill Gross knows!

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(click here if charts are not observable)

2011 Global Social Media Check-up

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 01:30 AM PDT

Interesting slide show on social media . . .

I Hate Corn Ethanol.com

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 06:13 PM PDT

So on a lark today, I grabbed a new URL: IHateCornEthanol.com

I was thinking that with all this newfound talk about fiscal responsibility, perhaps it might be time to put an end to one of the dumbest Energy/Ag subsidies in the history of the US: Burning food (corn) for fuel.

I do not have any issue with alt.fuels — but they have to make sense. Ethanol does not.

I am thinking of some interesting ideas to use this with in the coming 2012 Electoral season:

• Get candidates to sign a pledge to do away with Corn Ethanol Subsidies

• Clearing house for all corn ethanol related research, news, data.

• Community / Message board for ethanol related haters

Any ideas? What should be done of value with this web site?

~~~

PS: I have the domain set to auto-forward to the energy category of TBP (Try it: IHateCornEthanol.com)

Media Appearance: The Kudlow Report (3/17/11):

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 03:30 PM PDT

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Back on the Kudlow Report at 7:00 pm this evening with (Super) Mario Gabelli.  We will be discussing the Market sell off and bounce, Japan, and energy policy.

My takeaway:

• My Market view is here

• Today looks like little more than a technical oversold bounce.

• However, we have been very headline driven — very good  news (or very bad news) from Japan could have a big effect on markets.

• Possible downside targets for the S&P500 are 1228 (-9%), then 1179 (14%), 1127 (19%).

We added a few names and are now 30/70 Long/Cash

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Videos posted here

Battle to Keep Control of Nuclear Plant

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 03:19 PM PDT

click for video

Afternoon Reads

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 01:00 PM PDT

• The situation in Tokyo, a view from the ground (Alphaville)
• Simon Johnson: Who's Afraid of Elizabeth Warren? (Economix)
• Bear Stearns Thrives in Diaspora Giving to Sheryl Crow Tune (Bloomberg)
• The Japan Earthquake: The Cataclysm This Time (BusinessWeek)
• TARP Was No Win for the Taxpayers (WSJ)
• The need to protect the internet from ‘astroturfing’ grows ever more urgent (Guardian)
• Think living in Tennessee makes you safe from earthquakes? The earthquake map of America that will make you think again (Daily Mail)
• Can you make money from Twitter? (CityWire)
• No Nukes Is Good Nukes (Nation)
• 5 Characteristics of Successful People (B/Net)

The Decemberists Interview

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 12:30 PM PDT

Japan Strains to Thwart Nuclear Meltdown at Three Reactors

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 12:24 PM PDT

PBS: Reactor 101 On 3/14
How did they do ?

Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.

WeatherSpark Chart Madness

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 11:30 AM PDT

For you hardcore weather bugs, WeatherSpark is sheer chart overload!

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click for interactive weather madness!

(note the buy and sell patterns!)

hat tip Flowing Data

Who Does the US Owe Money To?

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 09:00 AM PDT

Its been a few months, and its time to update this chart of US Debt Holders from Political Calculations.

In the Think Tank this morning, Jim Bianco looks at the related question “What Will Be Sold To Pay For Japanese Reconstruction?

Here’s Political Calculation’s chart:

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The main differences from the chart we previously featured are that China’s holdings are much greater — since we showed this chart back in January, China’s holding’s rose from 7.5% to 9.5% –  and they now hold more US treasuries than does the U.S. Federal Reserve . . .

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Last, if you want to see how this has changed over time, try this graph:

Via Political Calculations.

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Previously:
Is China Really Funding the US Debt? (January 14th, 2011)

Source:
To Whom Does the U.S. Government Really Owe Money?
Political Calculations, March 15, 2011

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/03/to-whom-does-us-government-really-owe.html

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