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Friday, April 22, 2011

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Bernanke Plans to Make Voice Heard

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 11:00 PM PDT

On April 27, Ben Bernanke will do something no Fed chief has done before: Stand before journalists two hours after a policy meeting and answer questions about the central bank’s decisions.

The 2011 Big Picture Investor Conference

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 05:06 PM PDT

Back in Jun 2009, we held a Big Picture Conference (Recap here).

The response to the last conference was terrific; We are thinking about doing another one in September of this year.

This is always a bit of a project: The conference rooms cost money, as does flying people in and hosting them. I try to keep the costs reasonable (say $895 versus $2500). So before proceeding, I wanted to ask the crowd a few questions:

• Who would you like to hear speak?

• What panels/subjects/discussions would you like to see covered?

• What is the ceiling of a reasonable fee?

Use the comments to add your thoughts or suggestions . . .

For those of you interested in attending, add your email address and I will keep you updated as to the speakers list and agenda as it develops.



Stay Up on speakers and schedule for the Big Picture Conference



Succinct Summation of (Short) Week’s Events

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 12:30 PM PDT

Succinct summation of short week’s events:

Positives:

1) Great tech earnings buoy stocks
2) Existing home sales 100k annualized above est
3) Housing starts and permits bounce, good for construction
4) Purchase component in MBA data rises 10% to 19 week high
5) Euro zone mfr’g and services index remain solid
6) Sweden, Thailand and Brazil raise rates and China raises reserve requirements again
7) German PPI rises a robust 6.2% y/o/y but below estimates

Negatives:

1) The balance sheet of the United States of America gets a pop across the head
2) US$ value continues to erode, gold and silver roar higher
3) Philly Fed mfr’g moderates as rising prices create pressure
4) Initial Jobless Claims above 400k for a 2nd straight week
5) NAHB home builder sentiment fall 1 pt to still pathetic 16
6) Housing starts and permits bounce, we don’t need so many new homes
7) Canada CPI up 3.3% y/o/y, well above estimates of 2.8% and compares with a 1% benchmark rate
8) Yields in Greece, Portugal and Ireland go parabolic

A Look at Absurd US Healthcosts (vs. Rest of the World)

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 11:30 AM PDT

US Healthcare vs. the Rest of the World
Medical Costs Infographic
Via: Medical Billing and Coding

via Business Pundit

Information Triage

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 11:00 AM PDT

Great concept — that is exactly how I sift through the daily deluge of data: Information Triage:
n. The process of gathering, sorting, and prioritizing information to identify what is relevant or important and to discard everything else.

Information triage is the continuous process by which we refine the information we gather, paying most attention to the information that is most valuable and identifying additional information we want to procure.
—”Information Triage,” Notes About Notes, January 1, 2010 (approx)


Source: WordSpy

Breaking Down CPI vs Prior Inflation Cycles

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 09:30 AM PDT

Very interesting set of charts looking at Consumer Prices from The Chart Store. Over the course of 12 post WW2 business cycles, the following shows the periods of  Inflation.

Two things worth noting: The current cycle versus the composite of all prior cycles is relatively modest. This suggest that inflation is currently tame.

However, as the same chart shows, it has begin to move higher — and that raises concerns of increased inflationary pressures in the not-too-distant future.

>

Click for larger chart

>

The following chart suggest rising consumer inflation expectations:

The Other Side of Active ETFs: Follow the Money

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 08:45 AM PDT

Ari Weinberg is the WSJ Editor for Financial Tools; His perspective can also be seen on occasion at the Journal’s MarketBeat.

~~~

PIMCO made a big splash in the small world of actively-managed exchange-traded funds by filing for an ETF version of its Total Return Fund.

As many have accurately noted, PIMCO's filing makes a statement to the traditional mutual fund world that Bill Gross, who has $236 billion at his command, isn't afraid to disclose the daily positions and valuations for thousands of assets.

Gross doesn't need to fear front runners in his market. He is the market. (ht @retheauditors)

While the PIMCO Total Return ETF will not be a share class of the larger fund – due to Vanguard's patent on the hub-spoke share class structure – the fund will no doubt see a huge influx of cash to feed Gross's Total Return replication.

This is where you need to follow the money.

First, it's important to understand the business of regulated asset managers and mutual funds. Whether you like it or not, all asset managers are asset gatherers. They have to be to stay afloat and get to scale.

Hedge funds, or unregulated asset managers, have created a model in which they are paid partly for the assets they manage but mostly for the returns they generate above a benchmark.

Most regulated funds do not operate this way. The portfolio managers and the asset management companies divide the rents generated by the expense ratio. They make more money by generating returns which attract more assets. (Sure, they reduce the expense ratio as the fund gets bigger, but they'll gladly take a smaller percentage of a bigger pie. The numbers still work out fine. Just ask Bill Gross.)

But Gross didn't become a billionaire by simply running his actively managed mutual fund. He followed the money.

~~~

Continues at MarketBeat.

Bill Black: Rating Agencies “Harm The World” and Should Not Exist

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 08:30 AM PDT

Bill Black: Banks Are Above the Law, So Another Crisis is Coming

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 06:55 AM PDT

Must Read: Apropos of Everything (Continued)

Posted: 21 Apr 2011 06:15 AM PDT

Earlier this month, I published a piece in the Think Tank titled Apropos of Everything by regular TBP contributor Paul Brodksy of QB Partners.

It went viral, and Paul received literally 100s of emails about it. Many o you asked to be informed when the follow up was published.

It is now live in the Think Tank:

Apropos of Everything – Parts II, III

All three parts are your weekend homework assignments . . .

.

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