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- Forex Weekly Trading Forecast 04.17.11 - 04.22.11
- Japanese Yen: The G7 Can’t Fight a Full-Blown Market Unwinding
- Euro Run May Collapse if the Rate Expectations Continue to Ease
- FOREX: Dollar Sees Inflation Rally, Fed Commentary Heat Up and Still Hovers Just Off 15-Month Lows
- Gold to Decline Amid Unwinding US Inflation Expectations
- Dollar Still at a 15-Month Low Despite Improved Fundamentals
- British Pound Focused on BoE Minutes, But Will They Matter?
- US Dollar Risks Further Declines as Forex Carry Trade Hits Fresh Highs
- Australian Dollar to be Put to Test on RBA Minutes, PPI Data
- British Pound, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars to See Major Volatility
| Forex Weekly Trading Forecast 04.17.11 - 04.22.11 Posted: -US Dollar Risks Further Declines as Forex Carry Trade Hits Fresh Highs -Euro Run May Collapse if the Rate Expectations Continue to Ease -Japanese Yen: The G7 Can’t Fight a Full-Blown Market Unwinding -British Pound Focused on BoE Minutes, But Will They Matter? -Australian Dollar to be Put to Test on RBA Minutes, PPI Data -Gold to Decline Amid Unwinding US Inflation Expectations |
| Japanese Yen: The G7 Can’t Fight a Full-Blown Market Unwinding Posted:  We don’t often have the ability to test the capabilities and mettle of the world’s policy authority; but we can see just that with the Japanese yen. On the one side, we have the G7 and its commitment to maintain a stable Japanese yen exchange rate - and though they won’t necessarily admit this associates to a specific level, it almost certainly does. And, in the other corner we have the cumulative interests of the world’s capital markets. Who will win? Is the equation that simple? The answers to these questions will determine whether we see the yen’s retracement turn into a long-term bear trend or transition into yet another strong rally. |
| Euro Run May Collapse if the Rate Expectations Continue to Ease Posted:  For the past six weeks, the euro has been more or less unstoppable in its rally. Against the US dollar, that is isn’t necessarily saying much; but this currency shown remarkable progress against nearly all of its major counterparts in that period – denoting an inherent fundamental strength. Where is this strength emanating from? Interest rate expectations. Back on March 3rd, the ECB set off a hawkish surge when it telegraphed a rate hike in the following meeting. However, since that 25 basis point tightening has been folded in, we have seen the pace of hawkish speculation stagger. While the euro’s benchmark rate is still looking at the biggest cumulate advance over the coming 12 months; the intensity of that expected climb has decelerated. If interest rate expectations has been one of the strongest catalysts for the shared currency; what happens when conviction eases? The logical math is easy to calculate. And yet, the euro is still trying to maintain its buoyancy. Can it last? |
| FOREX: Dollar Sees Inflation Rally, Fed Commentary Heat Up and Still Hovers Just Off 15-Month Lows Posted: Everything in the FX market is relative. That said, the dollar’s fundamentals improved heading into the end of this past trading week while its primary counterpart’s own health continued to deteriorate. Nevertheless, the trade-weighted Dollar Index hovered just off lows last seen back in December of 2009. How do we reconcile this inequity; and does it mean the greenback is a lost currency? |
| Gold to Decline Amid Unwinding US Inflation Expectations Posted: |
| Dollar Still at a 15-Month Low Despite Improved Fundamentals Posted: The fundamental backdrop is starting to improve for the US dollar; but the market doesn’t seem to be ignoring the changing tides to sustained existing trends. Ever the safe haven currency, risk appetite trends is the first source of potential strength for the currency going forward. While momentum has yet to back it up, we have seen our favored benchmark for investor sentiment (the S&P 500 Index) turn to congestion and further threaten to unwind some of the gains it racked up with its six-month rally. |
| British Pound Focused on BoE Minutes, But Will They Matter? Posted: |
| US Dollar Risks Further Declines as Forex Carry Trade Hits Fresh Highs Posted:  US Dollar Risks Further Declines as Forex Carry Trade Hits Fresh Highs Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral
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| Australian Dollar to be Put to Test on RBA Minutes, PPI Data Posted:  Australian Dollar to be Put to Test on RBA Minutes, PPI Data Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral
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| British Pound, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars to See Major Volatility Posted: The week ahead features key inflation data that could shift interest rate expectations for the high-flying New Zealand and Canadian Dollars, and traders should keep a close eye on any potential surprises. |
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