The Big Picture

Time for a Site Refresh
Amanda Cox: Shaping Data for News
10 Monday PM Reads
National Association of State Treasurers Presentation
Presentation: NAST Conference
Happy Anniversary, Irrational Exuberance
All 17 Euro countries downgraded
Now how did FT get this story?
Top Returns by Gift Category
S&P500: Lots of Action, But No Progress

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 06:14 PM PST

So I have been mulling about a few things I would like to do to the site:

• Develop iPhone/Android Mobile version of the blog;
• Come up with an iPad version as well
• Do more infographic design
• Make each tab design independent (do we really still need tabs?)
• Freshen up the design, menus, sidebar
• Create more interactive features (quotes, twitter feeds, market postures)
• Add Google Plus to the social share at bottom
• Embed adverts into the RSS feeds

Any ideas or suggestions for the site are appreciated.

If anyone can refer me to a programmer who specializes in these sorts of things, it would be appreciated.

Amanda Cox: Shaping Data for News

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 03:56 PM PST

Amanda Cox – Eyeo Festival 2011 from Eyeo Festival on Vimeo.

10 Monday PM Reads

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 01:30 PM PST

My afternoon train reading:

• Three reasons why the job market still stinks (Fortune)
• What makes a rogue trader? (FT.com)
• Yahoo Battles Brain Drain (WSJ)
• Michael Lewis: Advice From the 1%: Lever Up, Drop Out (Bloomberg)
• Apple: The most undervalued large cap stock in the S&P 500 (Fortune)
• Gasoline: The new big U.S. export (CNN Money)
• 5 tips for entrepreneurs building a patent portfolio (Gigaom)
• Hank Paulson’s Crony Capitalism (Rolling Stone) see also Dudley Should Resign as New York Fed President: Simon Johnson (Bloomberg)
• Is Newt Gingrich the GOP candidate Obama prefers to face? (CS Monitor)
• Modest Bonus Year on Wall St., but Stock Could Yield Fortunes (DealBook) see also "Taking stock" of Wall Street (Information Arbitrage)

What’s on your tablet?
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Panic in the Euro Zone

National Association of State Treasurers Presentation

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 01:00 PM PST

I presented this afternoon to the National Association of State Treasurers. The room had all 50 State Treasurers, lots of Deputy and Asst Treasurers, and staff. Good crowd.

I took the podium around 1pm, with the Dow up nearly 200. By the time I finished, markets were nearly flat. The joke afterwards was that half way through my speech, all 50 Treasurers texted their home offices to hit the bid.

I actually wasn’t that negative, but I was quite realistic about how credit crises unwind over long periods of time. And, I told the treasurers that the consultants who tell them they should expect 8% blended returns are doing bad math — expected returns of 5% equities and 3% bonds are not to be added together, you must average them (its an accounting joke).

Anyway, you can see the presentation by clicking here.

Presentation: NAST Conference

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 12:36 PM PST

Here is my presentation this afternoon to the National Association of State Treasurers
NAST Issues Conference on Public Funds Management
December 4-6, 2011, New York, New York

I actually only discuss half of the slides, the rest there just for color . . .

NAST 2011

Happy Anniversary, Irrational Exuberance

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 12:15 PM PST

Today is the 15th anniversary of the infamous "irrational exuberance" speech by former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan (see below).

Here is the key excerpt from the speech (note the unintentionally ironic title):

The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C.
December 5, 1996

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy? We as central bankers need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs, and price stability. Indeed, the sharp stock market break of 1987 had few negative consequences for the economy. But we should not underestimate or become complacent about the complexity of the interactions of asset markets and the economy. Thus, evaluating shifts in balance sheets generally, and in asset prices particularly, must be an integral part of the development of monetary policy.

The public examination of Federal Reserve actions extends well beyond our stewardship of monetary policy. Our overall management of the Federal Reserve System should, and does, come under considerable scrutiny by the Congress. Since we expend unappropriated taxpayer funds, we have an especial obligation to be prudent and efficient with the use of those funds . . .

Note that SPX rallied for another three years and doubled from that point.

So much for the Maestro’s acumen . . .

All 17 Euro countries downgraded

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 12:12 PM PST

BN: *S&P SAID TO PLACE ALL 17 EURO NATIONS ON RATING DOWNGRADE WATCH

According to two officials familiar with the S&P decision.

Now how did FT get this story?

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 12:01 PM PST

In addition to the surprise that Germany would be put on credit watch negative by any credit rating agency right now, we must ask how the FT got this S&P story leaked to them. How is FT getting quotes from S&P on this before an official release? Now a credit watch move on France would not be a surprise and maybe Austria too but Germany on the cusp of losing its AAA rating, according to S&P, would be shocking right now. With this said, if France specifically loses its AAA rating, the EFSF will have problems.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7cf2e0ae-1f63-11e1-9916-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fgg6UZvY

Top Returns by Gift Category

Posted: 05 Dec 2011 11:30 AM PST