The Big Picture

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• Why is the AFL-CIO Supporting Job Destroying SOPA ?
• A Visual History of the American Presidency
• Work Smart: The Power Of Circles
• What Happened To My Country?
• What Deleveraging?
• 2011: A Year in Review (video)
• GIC Conference: Warsaw and Krakow, Poland May 23-27, 2012
• Economic data
• EU Crisis: The Graphic Novel Edition
• End of Corn Ethanol?

Why is the AFL-CIO Supporting Job Destroying SOPA ? Posted: 29 Dec 2011 10:30 PM PST Sopa Would DESTROY Jobs and the Economy … So Why are Unions Supporting It? No, Sopa Would Not Save Jobs or Help the Economy … It Would DESTROY Jobs and the Most Vibrant Sector of Our Economy The promoters of the Stop Online Privacy Act (Sopa) are pretending that it would save jobs and help the economy. But it would actually destroy jobs and hurt the economy. No one is going to invest in the next Facebook, Google, Yahoo, Reddit, or YouTube if they know that websites can be shut down after a single unsubstantiated copyright complaint. The only sector of our economy that's in good shape is web technology (for example, Google is hiring like crazy right now). Sopa would put a huge dent in the web sector and destroy jobs. Venture capitalist Fred Wilson notes: Big companies . . . can afford to defend themselves from litigious content companies. But three person startups cannot. And Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube were three person startups not so long ago. If they had not had the protection of the safe harbors of the DMCA, they could have been litigated out of business before they even had a chance to grow and develop into the powerhouses they have become. And venture capitalists will think more than twice about putting $3mm of early stage capital into startups if they know that the vast majority of the funds will go to pay lawyers to defend the companies instead of to hire engineers to create and build product. A group of well-known law professors say: SOPA is a dangerous bill. It threatens the most vibrant sector of our economy – Internet commerce. It is directly at odds with the United States' foreign policy of Internet openness, a fact that repressive regimes will seize upon to justify their censorship of the Internet. And it violates the First Amendment. Vice President Joe Biden admits: The digital marketplace of ideas that welcomes every blog and tweet is the same one that inspires the next generation of innovators to fuel our economies. And when businesses consider investing in a country with a poor record on Internet freedom, and they know that their website could be shut down suddenly, their transactions monitored, their staffs harassed, they'll look for opportunities elsewhere. The Hill points out: SOPA is the equivalent of curing a headache with a guillotine. It may stop piracy, but it would shut down our economy and unconstitutionally erode our most basic freedoms in the process. Edward J. Black – President and CEO of the Computer and Communications Industry Association – says: The … legislation will also threaten the growth of the most economically dynamic and technologically innovative sector of the U.S. economy. *** From an economic standpoint, the proposed legislation promises to saddle one of the U.S.'s most internationally competitive economic sectors with significant legal risk and a massive number of lawsuits — seriously hampering growth of and investment. TechFreedom argues: SOPA, regrettably, represents a big step backward in Washington's efforts to support the digital revolution, one of the only sectors of the economy that continues to grow. A group of high-powered Internet leaders note: We are concerned that these measures pose a serious risk to our industry's continued track record of innovation and job-creation, as well as to our Nation's cybersecurity. David Ulevitch – CEO of OpenDNS – points out: If passed, they will be devastating to the growth of the Internet economy in the United States, will take jobs overseas and will have a chilling effect on innovation. Andrew Lee – CEO of ESET North America – writes: This legislation, if passed as currently written, would have a chilling effect on the economy of the United States. The San Jose Mercury News editorializes: There are times when Silicon Valley really can help you understand the complexities of legislation that will affect the tech industry – and the world economy. The raging debate over the proposed Stop Online Piracy Act is one of those times. . . . It's not just the future of the industry that's at stake here. It's national security. The Atlantic argues: Congress is considering sweeping Internet legislation that purports to target "rogue websites" with the intent of cracking down on the theft of everything from movies to songs to designer handbags. While the goal is laudable, too many innocent websites would wind up in the crosshairs. These bills (the PROTECT IP Act in the Senate and the Stop Online Piracy Act, or SOPA, in the House) would do more harm than good to cybersecurity, the Internet economy, and online free expression. The Daily Caller writes: The Stop Online Privacy Act (SOPA) — a bill currently before the House Judiciary Committee — is a threat to America's ability to lead the Internet, and must be defeated before it has a chance to damage America's ability to generate jobs and economic growth online. TechDirt notes: SOPA & PIPA don't attack the real problem, do nothing to build up the services that do solve the problem, and won't work from a technological standpoint. And that's just if we look at the what these bills are supposed to do. The real fear is the massive collateral damage these bills will have to jobs, the economy and innovation. Why Are Unions Supporting It? The AFL-CIO, Teamsters Union, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and some other unions are supporting Sopa. Their uneducated position gives cover to the other knuckleheads still supporting the bill. Given that Sopa would destroy jobs and the economy – and is contrary to their members' and the nation's interest – everyone should immediately educate the unions and pressure them to withdraw their support.

A Visual History of the American Presidency Posted: 29 Dec 2011 03:30 PM PST click for ginormous version Source: (Timeplots)

Work Smart: The Power Of Circles Posted: 29 Dec 2011 12:30 PM PST Scott Belsky is the CEO of Behance, a company that develops products and services for creative industries. He is also the author of Making Ideas Happen: Overcoming the Obstacles Between Vision and Reality.

What Happened To My Country? Posted: 29 Dec 2011 11:00 AM PST My father was a real estate appraiser. He started out as an engineer, but that lasted less than a year, he wasn’t an ass-kisser, he couldn’t play the game, he was bounced out. So he opened a liquor store and tried his hand at commercial real estate. Unsuccessfully, because he didn’t have enough money to purchase property. Trying to improve his lot in life, he relocated the package store next to an exit by the newly-finished I-95, otherwise known as the Connecticut Turnpike. And when redevelopment hit Bridgeport, his friend Maury Magilnick said no one knew as much about local real estate as my dad, and if he became an appraiser, he’d hire him. My father spent a week at UConn. Another at the University of Chicago. He got licensed. And with his engineering background and his natural acumen he became a legend in the state, Attorneys General feared him, and my dad garnered the income of a doctor or a lawyer, he sent three children to private universities and graduate schools. That dream is dead today. I’m in Vail, Colorado. My family started skiing when I was ten. Used to be an egalitarian sport, you saw Beetles in the parking lot, sandwiches were de rigueur in the base lodge, brought from home. Skiers were not the upper crust, they were us. No more. So I’m riding up the lift with a fourth year medical student. I ask him what he’s gonna be. “An anesthesiologist.” Why? Because he loves it? No, because he can make good bread and vacation and live the high life. I’d like to tell you I met some musicians on the lift, some regular people, but I kid you not when I tell you the only people I met were in finance. Oh, and there was one dentist. They traded for the family account. They were “consultants”. They worked for hedge funds. They had their own private ski instructors, at $700 a day. They were the 1%. And everybody in America is scrambling to get into the club. That’s what’s wrong with the music business. The executives want to be as rich as the bankers, they too want to fly in private jets and tip with hundred dollar bills. What is the right tip these days? For a ride through town? I’m thinking $20, because the bankers have driven up the rate and the employees expect it and they’re struggling to make ends meet. I grew up in the sixties. We were all in it together. Sure, my dad told me to be a lawyer, so he didn’t have to worry about me, but instead of taking the LSAT, I went to Montreal. There were no corporate recruiters on campus. Life was about personal fulfillment. But now life is about money. Either you’ve got it or you’re struggling to get it. That wannabe anesthesiologist? He’s a Republican. He doesn’t want socialized medicine and he doesn’t want taxes. Nobody wants taxes. Everybody thinks life is a personal struggle, that there’s no common infrastructure, no freeways, no police department, no power utility. What’s mine is mine. And if you don’t watch out, I’m gonna take yours. No wonder musicians sell out to the Fortune 500. They too want to be rich. But the joke is upon them, they can never be that rich, the corporations laugh at them, they’re pawns in their game. We live in a completely duplicitous country where no one’s honest, no one does what he believes in, everybody’s just motivated by the money. And the problem? PUBLIC EMPLOYEES! Those teachers ruined the economy. Hell, you can barely make it on a teacher’s salary, you can’t vacation in Vail, Colorado, you’re closed out. And somehow we accept all this. We shrug our shoulders and say it’s the way it is and will always be. Why? I feel like I’ve been asleep for thirty-odd years. While I was pursuing my dream, everybody else was pursuing the dollar. Reagan made greed legitimate and the baby boomers filled that hole and now their kids want more of the same. They just want to play on their hand-helds and feed at the trough. No one wants to innovate, they just want to get rich. Ever speak to someone in finance? It’s a rare bird who likes it. They do it for the money. And with this money they buy up those concert tickets so you can’t get a good seat. They’ve got a shortage of time. When they get to the amusement park, they want to close you out. Get concierge treatment, cut the line…and you think this is okay because you think you’re gonna be rich too. Ain’t that a laugh. At least at Middlebury I saw what rich was. Most people can’t afford a private college education any longer. 50k a year? Hell, public education keeps going up and up. Most people never even get into the game they think they’re gonna win. There’s a ruling class, pulling the strings, and you’re not a member. This is not a Democratic or Republican issue. This is a money issue. Money’s corrupted the system. You’ve got to be on the take to get elected. So you’re beholden to the corporations, not the people. But you’ve read Steve Jobs’s biography and you think you’re gonna make it. Don’t you get it? The odds of music success are infinitesimal, all the things you want most musicians haven’t got, a house, a spouse, kids, health insurance… Don’t be angry with me. And don’t be angry with the music business titans, keeping you out. They’re just worrying about themselves, they don’t care about you, they just want to live in a gated community and vacation where you aren’t. They’re revolting in Russia. And they overthrew the government in a bunch of Middle Eastern countries. And if you don’t think it can’t happen here, you’re nuts. Everybody thinks just because people have flat screens, they’re happy. But have you been following the shenanigans in cable? You’re paying for all this stuff you don’t watch just to keep rich people rich. Music is a game for the poor. A place where the uneducated with no status can get a bit of notoriety and money. And as long as someone makes it, no one pays attention to the real problem. The game is rigged. You’re gonna be left behind unless you start making yourself number one and doing what’s expedient to get ahead. What kind of country is that? Not one I want to live in. P.S. That great middle class of yore? It created the classic rock you’re still listening today. Music was a reasonable pursuit, rock stars were as rich as anybody in America. That framework expired decades ago, rock stars are no longer rich. There are bankers who make $20 million a year every year! So the Grace Slicks of today, people born with a silver spoon in their mouths, don’t go into the arts, it just doesn’t pay. Tom Rush was a Harvard graduate. He revolutionized the folk circuit, he pioneered the singer-songwriter game. Now we’ve just got poor people rapping about Benzes and boats. How fulfilling is that? I get it, they want in. But you used to follow your dreams, not the dollar. But now if you ain’t got the moolah, you’re gonna have a heart attack and no health insurance and you’re gonna be bankrupted. Hell, the dirty little secret is one health episode puts many people in bankruptcy even when they have insurance! But we’ve got to have less corporate regulation and as far as health insurance goes…you’re on your own. Don’t you see, health insurance is a metaphor for our entire country! Can you imagine someone writing “Get Together” today? Come on people now, smile on your brother, everybody get together and love one another right now… Who sings about that? Chumps. – Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/ – http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz – If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter, http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1

What Deleveraging? Posted: 29 Dec 2011 10:15 AM PST What is this deleveraging you continue to babble about . . . ? Click to enlarge charts: ˜˜˜ ˜˜˜ Source: Bianco Research LLC Charts Of The Week Updated Pictures of Current Interest For the week of December 14, 2011

2011: A Year in Review (video) Posted: 29 Dec 2011 09:53 AM PST 2011 was a year of conflict, a year of tragedy, and for some a year of hope. WSJ takes a look back at the most important news and events of the year. 12/24/2011 11:19:19 AM

GIC Conference: Warsaw and Krakow, Poland May 23-27, 2012 Posted: 29 Dec 2011 09:00 AM PST "Economies of the Baltic Sea Countries and Their Capital Markets: A Sustainable Recovery? " Join the Global Interdependence Center as we examine the economies of the Baltic Sea region. How have their experiences led to economic recovery and is it sustainable? Confirmed Speakers Include: Marek Belka, President, Bank of Poland Jeffery Lacker, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Governor Stefan Ingves, Sveriges Riksbank Governor Nils Bernstein, Danmarks Nationalbank David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Program Chair The conference will conclude with a private roundtable discussion on the 26th. Participants will have a one-of-a-kind opportunity to tour some of Poland's most historic places including the Old Town and Ghetto of Warsaw, Basilica and Library at Czestochowa, guided tour of Auschwitz and Birkenau, and a guided tour of Old Town Krakow. Registration* Members $250 / Non-Members $350 (includes one year membership) Registration is available online at http://www.interdependence.org/programs/economies-of-baltic-sea-countries-and-their-capital-markets-a-sustainable-recovery/ *Touring options are not included in registration price. Participants will be able to register for different tours at an additional cost. For more information contact Jillian Fornito, jfornito@interdependence.org The Global Interdependence Center 3701 Chestnut St. Philadelphia, PA 19104 • 215.898.9453 •Fax: 215.898.0893 www.interdependence.org Agenda May 22, 2012 – Arrival in Warsaw May 23, 2012 – Tour of Old Town & Ghetto, Welcome Dinner May 24, 2012 Private Conference with National Bank of Poland Session I: Current State and Outlook of Polish Economy Marek Belka, President, National Bank of Poland Session II: Monetary Policy in the Environment of Recovery: Experiences of Baltic Sea Countries Moderator: Marek Belka, President, National Bank of Poland Participant: Jeffery Lacker, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Participant: Governor Stefan Ingves, Sveriges Riksbank Participant: Governor Nils Bernstein, Danmarks Nationalbank Conference with Polish Academy of Sciences Session I: Economic Interdependencies among the Capital Markets of the Baltic Sea Region May 25, 2012 – Travel to Krakow via Czestochowa – Depart Warsaw via Chartered Bus Tour Basilica/Library at Czestochowa Unveiling of the Black Madonna Arrive in Krakow May 26, 2012 Private Roundtable Discussion Guided tour of Old Town, including Church May 27, 2012 Guided Tour of Auschwitz and Birkenau Hotel Information Sheraton Warsaw, May 22-23-24, 2012 Double Occupancy 630PLN ($190*)/night, or Single Occupancy 558PLN ($168*)/night Book online: http://www.startwoodmeeting.com/StarGroupsWeb/res?id=1112135746&key=7C094 Rooms must be booked by April 22, 2012 Sheraton Krakow, May 25-26-27, 2012 Double Occupancy 655PLN ($197*)/night, or Single Occupancy 595PLN ($179*)/night Book online: http://www.starwoodmeeting.com/StarGroupsWeb/res?id=1112064904&key=AB4 Rooms must be booked by April 16, 2012 *Exchange rate as of December 19, 2011 Source: Cumberland Advisors Commentary GIC Conference: Warsaw and Krakow, Poland May 23-27, 2012

Economic data Posted: 29 Dec 2011 07:38 AM PST Nov Pending Home Sales rose 7.3%, much better than expectations of a gain of 1.5% and follows a 10.4% rise in Oct. All 4 regions of the country saw gains in contract signings with the West showing the biggest rise. The NAR chief economist is saying some of the gains may be “from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage.” The NAR is also saying that historical pending home sales are not being readjusted as with the existing home sales data as the calculations of both use different methodologies. Bottom line, whether due to even lower prices, historically low mortgage rates, falling inventory and a better tone to the labor market or a combination of all, the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing. I say stabilize instead of bottom as its too early to make that claim just yet with still a huge amount of foreclosure that hasn’t worked its way through the judicial system and prices that haven’t likely stopped going down as a result. Following the better than expected NY and Philly mfr’g surveys and weaker than forecasted Richmond and Dallas mfr’g reports, the Chicago PMI at 62.5 was 1.5 pts above estimates but flattish with Nov. New Orders fell to 68 from 70.2 but that’s off the best since March. Backlogs rose 2.8 pts to the best since April. Employment rose 1.7 pts but after falling 5.4 pts in Nov. Inventories fell 1.4 pts to 52.2. Prices Paid rose 5.5 pts to back in line with the 6 month average. Bottom line, in light of the concerns with Europe, manufacturing is still hanging in there but the ISM next week needs to be seen to both reconcile the regional surveys but to also show us the all important EXPORT component which the regional reports don’t have. Initial Jobless Claims totaled 381k, 6k more than expected and up from 366k last week (revised up by 2k). To smooth out the recent level due to the holiday and unusual seasonals, the 4 week average fell to 375k from 381k, the lowest since June ’08. Continuing Claims rose by 34k but Extended Benefits fell a net 8k. With another extension of unemployment benefits agreed upon before the expiration of the current one, we’ll thus see no disruption in the claims data. Bottom line, initial claims are running below 400k now for the 7th week in the past 8 but it still doesn’t answer the question of when the pace of hiring’s will pick up to a higher and more sustainable level from where we’ve been.

EU Crisis: The Graphic Novel Edition Posted: 29 Dec 2011 07:30 AM PST Huge story in the WSJ about how Europe almost caused another global collapse. The same could be said for the US Congress and the debt ceiling debate, which led to the downgrade and ugly August. Regardless, the paragraphs below sets the tone, but what I really liked were the graphic novel illustrations that accompanied the piece. (click any of thesefior  larger versions). All of which begs the question: When will we get a graphic noel about the EU crisis? Here’s the Journal: At a closed-door meeting in Washington on April 14, Europe’s effort to contain its debt crisis began to unravel. Inside the French ambassador’s 19-bedroom mansion, finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s largest economies heard Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then-head of the International Monetary Fund, deliver an ultimatum. Greece, the country that triggered the euro-zone debt crisis, would need a much bigger bailout than planned, Mr. Strauss-Kahn said. Unless Europe coughed up extra cash, the IMF, which a year earlier had agreed to share the burden with European countries, wouldn’t release any more aid for Athens. The warning prompted a split among the euro zone’s representatives over who should pay to save Greece from the biggest sovereign bankruptcy in history. European taxpayers alone? Or should the banks that had lent Greece too much during the global credit bubble also suffer? The IMF didn’t mind how Europe proceeded, as long as there was clarity by summer. “We need a decision,” said Mr. Strauss-Kahn. It was to be Europe’s fateful spring. A Wall Street Journal investigation, based on more than two dozen interviews with euro-zone policy makers, revealed how the currency union floundered in indecision—failing to address either the immediate concerns of investors or the fundamental weaknesses undermining the euro. The consequence was that a crisis in a few small economies turned into a threat to the survival of Europe’s common currency and a menace to the global economy. I suspect the key to the graphic novel is coming up with the appropriate super hero costume for each political figure . . . > click for larger graphic > Source: Dithering at the Top Turned EU Crisis to Global Threat CHARLES FORELLE and MARCUS WALKER WSJ, DECEMBER 29, 2011 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203518404577094843835831390.html

End of Corn Ethanol? Posted: 29 Dec 2011 06:00 AM PST I listed these two articles in the morning reads, but I am so delighted over this that I had to make sure you did not miss this: Congress has apparently failed to extend the corn ethanol subsidy, a terrible energy idea that has subsidized the burning of food/corn for 30-years. It is unclear whether this has simply lapsed, and has not been renewed yet or if the wasteful, engine damaging, negative-net-energy Corn Ethanol nightmare is finally over. Here is the Detroit News: The United States has ended a 30-year tax subsidy for corn-based ethanol that cost taxpayers $6 billion annually, and ended a tariff on imported Brazilian ethanol. Congress adjourned for the year on Friday, failing to extend the tax break that’s drawn a wide variety of critics on Capitol Hill, including Sens. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., and Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. Critics also have included environmentalists, frozen food producers, ranchers and others. The policies have helped shift millions of tons of corn from feedlots, dinner tables and other products into gas tanks. What this means is that the domain “ihatecornethanol.com” is now for sale . . . > Source: Congress ends corn ethanol subsidy; Trade group expects industry to ‘survive’ David Shepardson The Detroit News, December 24, 2011   http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20111224/AUTO01/112240320/1148/rss25 30-year-old corn ethanol subsidy nixed by Washington Dan Roth Autoblog, Dec 27th 2011 11:31AM  http://www.autoblog.com/2011/12/27/30-year-old-corn-ethanol-subsidy-nixed-by-washington/

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