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Thursday, January 26, 2012

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Governments Worldwide Raise Acceptable Radiation Levels Based Upon Politics … Not Science

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 10:30 PM PST

Instead of Protecting People, Governments Cover Up by Raising "Safe" Radiation Levels

American and Canadian authorities have virtually stopped monitoring airborne radiation.

Neither American nor Canadian authorities are testing fish for radioactivity.

Does that mean that we don't have to worry about radiation from Fukushima?

It is a little hard to know, given that what is deemed a "safe level" of radiation is determined by politics … rather than science. For example, current safety standards are based on the ridiculous assumption that everyone exposed is a healthy man in his 20s – and that radioactive particles ingested into the body cause no more damage than radiation hitting the outside of the body.

And one of the main advisors to the Japanese government on Fukushima announced:

If you smile, the radiation will not affect you.

(Here's the video.)

In the real world, however, even low doses of radiation can cause cancer. Moreover, small particles of radiation – called "internal emitters" – which get inside the body are much more dangerous than general exposures to radiation. See this and this. And radiation affects small children much more than full-grown adults.

Indeed, instead of doing much to try to protect their citizens from Fukushima, Japan, the U.S. and the EU all just raised the radiation levels they deem "safe".

Nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen says that high-level friends in the State Department told him that Hillary Clinton signed a pact with her counterpart in Japan agreeing that the U.S. will continue buying seafood from Japan, despite that food not being tested for radioactive materials.

And the Department of Energy is trying to replace the scientifically accepted model of the dangers of low dose radiation based on voodoo science. Specifically, DOE's Lawrence Berkeley Labs used a mutant line of human cells in a petri dish which was able to repair damage from low doses of radiation, and extrapolated to the unsupported conclusion that everyone is immune to low doses of radiation:

In reality, not only is there overwhelming evidence that low doses of radiation can cause cancer, but there is some evidence that low doses can – in certain circumstances cause more damage than higher doses.

As I pointed out in April:

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists reported that one of the best-known scientists of the 20th century – Dr. John Gofman – also believed that chronic low level radiation is more dangerous than acute exposure to high doses. Gofman was a doctor of nuclear and physical chemistry and a medical doctor who worked on the Manhattan Project, co-discovered uranium-232 and -233 and other radioactive isotopes and proved their fissionability, helped discover how to extract plutonium, led the team that discovered and characterized lipoproteins in the causation of heart disease, served as a Professor Emeritus of Molecular and Cell Biology at the University of California Berkeley, served as Associate Director of the Livermore National Laboratory, was asked by the Atomic Energy Commission to undertake a series of long range studies on potential dangers that might arise from the "peaceful uses of the atom", and wrote four scholarly books on radiation health effects.

And see this, this and this.

How to Get More Click on Twitter

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:30 PM PST

The Belated Mortgage Fraud/Crisis Investigation

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 03:30 PM PST

The most interesting news from the SOTU address was the very belated appointment of a mortgage investigation task force, the Office 0f Mortgage Origination and Securitization Abuses.

You may recall that back in April of 2011, I presented to the National Association of Attorneys General a short keynote speech. It was titled “How Systemic Bank Fraud Contributed to the Financial Crisis.”In particular, you should review pages 14-17, and 22-30.

But meanwhile you may be asking why in 2012 — 4 years after the great financial collapse, 3 years after the recovery began, and in the last year of the President’s term — Mr. Obama finally decided to investigate the role of Fraud in the entire crisis.

The politics are obvious: Both Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party were very unhappy with the bailouts, and even more unhappy with the lack of prosecutions. So its obviously good politics.

But the suspicions on the Left have already begun; consider:

• The Schneiderman Gambit: Financial Fraud Unit Appears Designed to Fail, and Grease Skids for Foreclosure Fraud Settlement (Firedoglake)

• Obama To Announce Mortgage Crisis Unit Chaired By New York Attorney General Schneiderman (HuffPo)

• Is Schneiderman Selling Out? Joins Federal Committee That Looks Designed to Undermine AGs Against Mortgage Settlement Deal (naked capitalism)

• California calls $25-billion mortgage settlement ‘inadequate’ (L.A. Times)

That is way too negative — but the suspicions of the Obama administration, and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner aka the Banker’s friend — is not unwarranted.

~~~

What is the thought process about this? Is this the real deal investigation? Will this commission uncover anything, or is this cover for a white wash?

What say ye?

CineStar 3 Axis Gimbal: Aerial Cinematography

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:57 PM PST

Move over helicopters! There’s a new way to capture amazing aerial video. Meet the remote-controlled octo-copter named Cinestar. Its 3-axis gimbal holds a camera rock-steady during flight. You have to see the shots it takes to believe it.

CineStar 3 Axis Gimbal from tabb firchau on Vimeo.

10 Mid-Week PM Reads

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:30 PM PST

My afternoon train reading:

• The Mystery of Closed-End Fund Discounts (Smart Money)
This is Tim: Apple’s CEO in his own words (Macworld)
• WTF headline of the day: Billionaires at Davos Bemoan Inequalities (Bloomberg) see also Davos Man Diminished by Scandal With Murdoch Perennials Missing (Bloomberg)
• Will Emerging Markets Fall in 2012? (Jeff Frankel)
Fascinating history: How Slavery Led to Modern Capitalism (Bloomberg)
Hi-larious! GREETINGS FROM DAVOS!!! (The Reformed Broker) see also Davos dodges the future of capitalism (Reuters)
• A Way to Make People Buy Homes Again (NYT) Lower prices?
• Carried Interest Debate Gains Momentum With Romney's Income-Tax Disclosure (Bloomberg) see also Mitt Romney Is in the Top 0.0025% (WSJ)
• Fumblerules of Grammar (Lists Of Note)
• How Do We Identify Good Ideas? (Wired)

What’s on your iOS device?

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Gee, Why a Congressional Approval Rating of 9%?

CNBC: William A. Ackman, Pershing Square Capital

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 11:57 AM PST

Growing J.C. Penney
CNBC Wed 25 Jan 12 | 07:30 AM ET

~~~

Pershing Square’s Charity Event
Wed 25 Jan 12 | 07:50 AM ET

The Fed, Stocks & Chimichurri

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 11:45 AM PST

The Fed, Stocks & Chimichurri
David R. Kotok
January 25, 2012

~~~

The Fed has extended its low-interest-rate forecast to 2014.  In addition, it indicated a continuing commitment to extend the maturity of the Fed’s portfolio.  In other words, excess reserves and huge liquidity provisions are here for longer than many previously thought.

How long they persist will actually depend on many factors.  However, the intention of the Fed, as long as Bernanke is Chairman, is clear.

The same approach is at work at the other major central banks of the world.  We track this on Cumberland’s website, www.cumber.com.  The aggregate size of the combined G4 central bank balance sheets is about 9 trillion US dollars equivalent and is rising.  G4 is the US Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.

Massive liquidity is likely to encourage more risk taking over time.  It will fuel a further rally in stock prices.  It will encourage higher prices in precious metals.  It will encourage acquisition of financeable assets of all types.

We remain fully invested in our US stock market ETF portfolios.  Our international portfolios are overweight the US and underweight Europe and Japan.

Now to a tasty tidbit.

While in South America we picked up this item from our chef at the Alto Puelo Lodge.  Alejandro is a skilled chef from Buenos Aries who travels to the fishing lodge when there are guests.  He is responsible for an added few pounds which I now must struggle to remove.

He makes his version of a spicy mix that is used in various dishes and especially on an asado, or barbecue.  We asked him if he knew the origins of the mix.

He said it all started with the British, who were in La Pampa province, near Buenos Aires.  They were eating an asado. My fishing colleague Michael Azeez verified the location personally.  He has been there.

Anyway.  The British asked, “Give me curry” to their cook, who was a Gaucho.  The gaucho did not understand the precise nature of the Brits' request, so he made up a spice mixture.  He had dry oregano, dry peppers, garlic, and salt.  Some hot oil and Chimichurri was born.  Not in Patagonia but in La Pampa. Now there are a thousand recipes.  Alejandro’s version at the Alto Puelo Lodge was terrific.

We are back.  The bull market continues.  The Fed continues.  I need to plan another fishing trip.

Final musing: I know there are some FOMC members who like chimichurri.  I wonder if Bernanke likes it.

~~~

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

Did Google Kill The Longtail ?

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 11:30 AM PST

Via SEO Book, comes this interesting look at how Google is impacting search results:

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click for full graphic

How Google Killed the Longtail Infographic.

Infographic by SEO Book

FOMC intent on being the BoJ

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 09:59 AM PST

The FOMC commentary on the economy and inflation is pretty much unchanged from the statement they gave in Dec. They continue to believe the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. The only real change of substance was they replaced the time frame of keeping rates ‘exceptionally low’ from mid 2013 to late 2014. This squares with an extremely dovish Fed where 2 of the 3 new members are so and now 8 of the 10 voting members are. Lacker, a new voting member and one of the 2 remaining hawks, dissented and didn’t want to specify the time frame. Bottom line, the Fed continues to believe that pinning rates at near zero is the cure all and seem to ignore the experience so far in the US and certainly what Japan has gone thru. This is NOT economic stimulus as they seem to think. Also, calling for where rates will be by late 2014 is a waste as anything can change in economic growth and inflation well before then. What the Fed is trying to do is jawbone the yield curve with their words.

Apple’s Superlatives Amongst Superlatives

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 08:35 AM PST

By now, everyone knows that Apple had a blowout quarter: Q1FY12 sales of $46.33 billion, profits of $13.1 billion, with gross margins of 45%, translates into EPS of $13.87.

But the data points that surround the company today are simply astonishing. Consider these astounding Apple facts:

• Apple reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable company $415B vs Exxon Mobil’s $413B (Yahoo Finance)

• The $97.6 billion in cash that $AAPL has is higher than the market value of 448 of the companies in the S&P 500. (Capital IQ)

• This was the 2nd highest profit quarter of any company ever. ExxonMobil’s Q3 08 profit of $14.8 billion needed $147 barrel oil and $140 billion in revenue. (WSJ)

• Sales rose 73% to $46.3 billion — so much for the law of big numbers working against them (CNN/Money)

• In 2009, Apple sold more iPhones than it did in 2007 and 2008 combined. In 2010, Apple sold more iPhones than it did in 2007, 2008, and 2009 combined. Last year, Apple sold 93.1 million iPhones, slightly more than it did in in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 combined (Matt Richman)

• Apple's profit of $13.1 billion was equal to their revenue in Q4 2010

• If Apple was a country, its market cap would make it 29th biggest nation, its annual revenue would make it the 52nd, its cash position 66th, and its earnings 79th, in terms of GDP  (Global Macro Monitor)

• Apple's profits ($13 billion) exceeded Google's entire revenue ($10.6 billion)  (Manjoo)

• Apple has now sold 315 million iPhones, iPads and iPod Touch devices running its iOS software (CNN/Money)

• Google would activate 59,653,187 Android-based devices during Apple's fourth calendar quarter. Apple has said that iPod touch sales make up more than half of all iPod sales. That means Apple sold at least 7.7 million iPod touches. And that number, plus 37.04 million iPhones and 15.43 million iPads, means iOS outsold Android last quarter. (Matt Richman)

• Apple sold three times as many iPads as Amazon sold Kindle Fires (Tech Crunch)

Last, my favorite chart set, via Dan Frommer:

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