• Rosenberg: Why cash is your least safe bet (Financial Post) • How to Worry Less About Money (Brain Pickings) see also Advice for Dylan the Daytrader (The Reformed Broker) • Cautious 3-fer: …..-Near-Record NYSE Margin Debt Leads to Caution (Bloomberg) …..-Investors borrow cash from portfolios at record pace (USAToday) …..-Searching for Signs of a Market Top (Barron’s) Contrarians will point out that you don’t usually see this much caution at tops. • How Cooper Union's Endowment Failed in Its Mission (NYT) • Moby Ben, or, the Washington Super-Whale: Hedge Fundies, the Federal Reserve, and Bernanke-Hatred (Brad DeLong) • In the Long Run, Niall Ferguson, Keynes Was Right (Bloomberg) see also Keynes was, incredibly, right about the future. He was wrong about how we'd be spending it. (Wonkblog) • LinkedIn annoys me (Benedict Evans) • Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark (BBC) see also 50 years on: The Keeling Curve legacy (BBC) • 50 Best Websites 2013 (Time) • Doctor Who? Doctor Jew (Tablet)
What are you reading?
After a decade of decline, it's time for the dollar to have its day Source: Telegraph
The chart above comes from a piece penned by Bob Ivry, who explored the unfair advantages of the TBTF banks.
Note the chart shows how the ratings agencies would change their views — and credit ratings — of TBTF banks without the implicit promise of a bailout when any of these banks screw up. Another chart after the jump shows how bond buyers accept lower returns from TBTF banks given the governments implicit guarantees.
Ivry wrties:
“These six banks — Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc., (GS) JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). — have also benefited from tax breaks and Federal Reserve largesse since the end of 2008 in the form of additional income from the central bank's mortgage-bond purchases and the interest it pays for bank deposits.
All told, the financial advantages for the six biggest banks since the start of 2009 amounted to at least $102 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
• This is the best thing you will read today: The End is Where We Start From (The Reformed Broker) • Rally Matches 1990s Gains With Valuations 28% Lower (Bloomberg) see also Literally Every Strategist On Wall Street Has Been Wrong About The Stock Market (Business Insider) • After a decade of decline, it's time for the dollar to have its day (Telegraph) • How the Rich Play the Market (WSJ) • U.S. Posts Biggest Monthly Surplus in 5 Years (Real Time Economics) • Japan: The Kuroda recovery will be about domestic demand and not about exports (The Market Monetarist) • The Facebook Home disaster (Salon) • Bloomberg's culture is all about omniscience, down to the last keystroke (Quartz) • Pilotless Planes, Pacific Tensions (NYT) see also U.S. automatic cuts send Pentagon contract awards down 52 percent (Washington Post) • Twitter Vines Get Shared 4x More Than Online Video Researcher says nascent tool packs branding punch (AdWeek)
Ahhh, back at home after a lovely few days in Beverly Hills and Newport Beach. Between the weather and the geography, it is very easy to see how California has attracted so many people over the past century.
Historically, Geography was economics for the early development of trade, rise of cities, etc. — but we will save that for another day.
After a blistering rise, Asian markets are soft, Europe is following, and US futures are under pressure. Bears will blame it on Hilsenrath’s article on How the Fed will end of QE — that is in itself worth a closer look and its own post.
It will be interesting to see how markets trade today — especially after Europe closes.
"In this revolutionary and beautifully reasoned book, Barry Schwartz shows that there is vastly too much choice in the modern world. This promiscuous amount of choice renders the consumer helpless and dissatisfied. The Paradox of Choice is a must read for every thoughtful person." — Martin Seligman, author of Learned Optimism and Authentic Happiness
"The Paradox of Choice carries a simple yet profoundly life-altering message for all Americans. Based on new research, Barry Schwartz explores why we want more choices when the best possible choice is already at hand, and how the creation of this "choice overload" undermines good decision-making. His eleven practical, simple steps to becoming less choosy will change much in your daily life. Buy this book now!" — Philip G. Zimbardo, author of Shyness: What It Is, What to Do About It
"Today's world offers us more choices but, ironically, less satisfaction. In this provocative and riveting book, Barry Schwartz shines the light of psychological science on popular culture and shows us steps we can take toward a more rewarding life. This is one of those rare books I just couldn't put down." — David G. Myers, author of Intuition: Its Powers and Perils
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