The Big Picture

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• World Bank: Global Economics Prospects
• Blog Finance: Advertising, Sponsorship, Advertorial, Subscription?
• 10 Mid-Week PM Reads
• Jon Hilsenrath to Rick Santelli: “This is What Journalism Is…“
• The Cost of Cash
• 10 Mid-Week AM Reads
• Time, Time, Time Is On Your Side (Yes it is)
• Equity Market Review for June 18th 2013

World Bank: Global Economics Prospects Posted: 20 Jun 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Blog Finance: Advertising, Sponsorship, Advertorial, Subscription? Posted: 19 Jun 2013 05:15 PM PDT In light of that incidence last week with those terrible pop up ads, I have a question for the assembled multitudes: Running the blog at this point requires a decent amount of expenditures. Hosting, editorial assistance, research all costs some shekels, and that cost is covered with the current advertisers. I keep getting pitched on “Advertorials” but I have precisely zero interest in that. And I have done the Subscription thingie, and it holds little appeal to me. That pretty much leaves Advertising or Sponsorship. If we stay with the advertising, it would mostly continue to be the current rotating list of finance related and luxury brands you see. I think I want to kill the Google Adsense. (I thought I killed those terrible text ads, but they keep returning like Herpes). The sponsorship route is less noisy, but it means the site is pretty much “The Big Picture Sponsored by Ferrari NA“, or more likely, some finance related entity like Blackrock or Vanguard. Perhaps a less intrusive combination of sponsorship and advertising is possible. Any thoughts, feedback, ideas?

10 Mid-Week PM Reads Posted: 19 Jun 2013 01:30 PM PDT My afternoon train reads: • How the IRS keeps the $4.3 trillion nonprofit world secret (Wonkblog) • High-Frequency Trading Is Bad For Profits, Including Those Of High-Speed Traders (Huffington Post) • Business Majors Are The Most Underemployed Graduates In America (Business Insider) • Tech Moves to the Background as Design Becomes Foremost (Bits) see also Technopoly and the dictatorship of data (Research Puzzle Pieces) • The Surprising Way Psychologists Measure Narcissism (Priceonomics) • New China billionaires blowing massive bubbles (MarketWatch) but see also Billionaire Mori Says Tokyo Real Estate Best Abenomics Bet (Bloomberg) • The California Solar Initiative is ending. What has it left behind? (Berkeley Blog) • iOS 7 (Matt Gemmell) see also At Work With Microsoft Office on an iPhone (WSJ) • Bowers & Wilkins Maserati Speakers: Time to Cash in That 401K (technabob) • Advanced Alien Civilization Discovers Uninhabitable Planet (Onion) What are you reading?   Emerging Markets Still Offer a Lure Source: WSJ

Jon Hilsenrath to Rick Santelli: “This is What Journalism Is…“ Posted: 19 Jun 2013 01:00 PM PDT See if you can identify which person engages in sensationalism and which does real journalism.   Hat tip Business Insider

The Cost of Cash Posted: 19 Jun 2013 09:00 AM PDT I am not sure I fully agree with this BlackRock chart — there are times when cash makes sense. However, I cannot disagree with the takeaway that you cannot sit in cash for very long stretches of time (years) and expect any sort of return above inflation.   Click to enlarge Source: BlackRock

10 Mid-Week AM Reads Posted: 19 Jun 2013 07:00 AM PDT My morning reads: • How to Understand What the Fed Says (Bloomberg) see also 5 Ideas to Help You Read Bernanke's Mind (Fiscal Times) • On what really is different this time around (FT Alphaville) • Is this a good thing? Quant Trading Comes to Main Street (Fortune) • How’s that “End-of-the-World’ Trade working out for ya? (The Reformed Broker) • Bond Investors Head for the Hills (WSJ) see also Making the Case for a Rise in Inflation (NYT) • Krueger: Sequester Cuts Hurting Key Research (Washington Wire) • CBO's Case for Immigration: $197 Billion Cut in U.S. Deficit (Daily Beast) • CBO: Senate Immigration Bill Would Increase Population, Decrease Deficits Over 10 Years (Talking Points Memo) • You're Too Cheap to Fly Faster (Medium) • Eliminating stupidity is easier than creating brilliance (Sabermetric Research) see also 3 Pieces Of Advice I'd Give My 18-Year-Old Self If I Could (Thought Catalog) What are you reading?   Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) from 1900 to Present Source: Chart of the Day

Time, Time, Time Is On Your Side (Yes it is) Posted: 19 Jun 2013 04:15 AM PDT Source: Motley Fool   Morgan Housel has a very insightful column this morning, driven by one of my favorite topics: Taking yourself out of the minute-to-minute, day-to-day time frame and rethinking your investing parameters in terms of years and decades. That longer time frame is an enormous luxury, a monstrous advantage amateurs at home have over the pros. Here’s Housel: “You’re trying to fund your retirement over the next 20 years. Hedge fund managers have to woo their clients every month. You’re saving for your kids’ education next decade. Mutual fund managers have to fret about the next quarter. You can look years down the road. Traders have to worry about the next ten milliseconds. Most professional investors can’t focus on the long run even if they want to.” Or to be even more succinct, Henry Blodget observes that professional managers are “thinking about the next week, possibly the next month or quarter. There isn’t a time horizon; it’s how are you doing now, relative to your competitors. You really only have ninety days to be right, and if you’re wrong within ninety days, your clients begin to fire you.” That is the beauty of the chart above showing (inflation-adjusted) S&P500 returns going back to 1871 relative to various holding periods. Short term is more or less random; longer term, the odds move in your favor. And very long term approaches 100% positive returns, even after inflation. “Hold stocks for a year (Wall Street’s territory) and you’re at the mercy of the market’s madness — maybe a huge up year, or maybe a devastating loss. Five years, and you’re doing better. Ten years, and there’s a good chance you’ll be sitting on positive annual returns. Hold them for 20, 30, or 50 years, and there has never been a period in history when stocks produced an average annual loss. In fact, the worst you’ve done over any 30-year period in history is increased your money two-and-a-half fold after inflation. Wall Street would love to think about those numbers. Alas, it’s busy chasing its monthly benchmarks.” Go read the full piece + see the rest of the charts. Its great stuff . . .     Source: Your Last Remaining Edge on Wall Street Morgan Housel Motley Fool, June 18, 2013 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/18/your-last-remaining-edge-on-wall-street.aspx     The Rolling Stones – Time Is On My Side

Equity Market Review for June 18th 2013 Posted: 19 Jun 2013 03:00 AM PDT Click to enlarge Major U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite have both recently stabilized and bounced for the second time off their respective 50 day moving averages.  Though historically June tends to be a negative month for stocks, with only 9 trading days left in the quarter we wonder aloud whether quarter ending "window dressing" will keep stocks elevated until June passes. Market internals have certainly shown some deterioration of late, however, the old adage is to respect the trend and the trend still remains up as long as the recent lows, near the respective 50 day moving averages, hold.  Please see attached note for chart on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.

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