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Tuesday, July 16, 2013

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Rice: Hedge Fund Decision Could Help Average Investors Earn “Exceptional Returns”

Posted: 16 Jul 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Click for video
Video

Source: Yahoo Finance

What to Do in Denver Over the Weekend?

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 04:30 PM PDT

I am going to be in Denver this weekend for the F-A Alternatives Conference, and I find myself with some time to kill.

Any suggestions what to do in Denver ?

10 Monday PM Reads

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:30 PM PDT

My afternoon train reading:

• Why the Fed Wants Higher Prices (Barron’s)
• Hedge Funds Bought Gold in Biggest Rally Since 2011 (Bloomberg) but see Gold is a popping bubble, too (Marketwatch)
• What Should We Expect For Long Run Risk Premiums? (Capital Spectator)
• China's GDP and the investment factor (FT Alphaville)
• Private-Equity Buyouts Shortchange Shareholders  (MoneyBeat)
Cohan: Free Fab! Then Go After Fuld and Cayne and O’Neal.  (Bloomberg)
• What does it even mean to “believe” something? (Noahpinion) see also Information wants to be expensive (Reuters)
• Why 'Made in the U.S.A.' is still a viable model for some local manufacturers   (Washington Post)
• Seeing Apple in Microsoft’s reorganization (Fortune)
• Fine Print: master inventory of canned responses for online dispute resolution. (@pourmecoffee)

What are you reading?

 

Emerging-Market Rout Offers Bargains    EM-AW408A_ABREA_G_20130714182704

Source: WSJ

 

• MPs force Greek statistics chief to defend role, exemptions (Ekathimerini)
• Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown (Verso)
• Who Are Some Famous Gay Athletes? (ChaCha)
• Blackstone Raises $5 Billion Rental Bet With Lending Arm (Bloomberg)
• Politics come first in gay-marriage finale (Daily Journal)
• Diesel’s Difference Engine Born again (Economist)
• Lessons Learned From Well-Behaved Investors (Bucks) see also Why gold crashes as global turmoil continues (Fortune)
• A Smarter Dividend Strategy (WSJ)
• Is There a Better Way to Build Indexes? (WSJ)
• 10 mindblowingly futuristic technologies that will appear by the 2030s (io9)
• With warming seas, lobsters become an abundant bargain (Boston Globe)
• The 10 best things government has done for us (MarketWatch)
• Where Are They Now: George Gilder (WSJ) see also The Madness of King George (Wired)
• A New Tool Aims to Help Facebook Users Dig Deep (NYT)
• Do the inflationistas really believe what they say? (Noahpinion) see also Charlatans, Cranks & Economists on Inflation (The Atlantic)
• The need for less speed (Tim Harford)
• Why optimism is your worst investing enemy (MarketWatch)
• Praying for an Immaculate Rotation (Barron’s)
• Audi to Zappa See Trade Talks as Chance to Cut Rules (Bloomberg)
• A Smarter Dividend Strategy (WSJ)
• Short Looks Beautiful to Bond Investors (WSJ)
• Is There a Better Way to Build Indexes? (WSJ)

What are you reading?

• Watch actors perform their very own death-defying stunts (io9)
• An Economic Primer for Spies (Economix)
• The Joy of Old Age. (No Kidding.) (NYT)
• Three Great Interviews (A Dash of Insight)
• Should You Abandon Smaller Clients? (Financial Planning)
• Transport is Mostly a Real Estate Problem (Urbanization Project)
• Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering (Calculated Risk)
• Eurozone crisis over? Not by a long, long way (Telegraph)
• The world's new largest building is four times the size of Vatican City (Alt Wire)
• Anglo Attitudes (Book Forum)
• Waiting for the Dough (Open Letters Monthly)
• Every Breath You Take (City Journal)
• Hints surface that NSA building massive, pervasive surveillance capability (McClatchy)
• The Difference Between Science And Engineering (Farnam Street)
• Being a sandpiper (aeon)
• How Science Helped Write the Declaration of Independence (Nautilus)
• America’s founders would be horrified at this United States of Surveillance (theguardian)
• Revealed: the Rupert Murdoch tape (Channel 4)
• Clear Eyes, Full Plates, Can’t Puke (GQ)
• How long copyright terms make art disappear (Boing Boing)
• How Copyright Makes Books and Music Disappear (and How Secondary Liability Rules Help Resurrect Old Songs) (Social Science Research Network)
• William Shakespeare’s Star Wars (Quirk Books)
• A Long History of Untruthiness by U.S. Intelligence (Bloomberg)
• The Case for Swearing Off Stocks (WSJ)
• Goldman Sachs to Microsoft's Support for Gays Pressures States (Bloomberg)
• An Open Letter To The Idiot Nation (Stonekettle Station)
• Some banks don't record deed in foreclosure, neglect property (TribLive)
• Why Woody Allen Won’t Stop Working (Fast Company)
• Cuomo aide turns Wall Street hammer (Politico)
• CNBC Quarterly Ratings Fall To Lowest Level Since 1994 (Value Walk)
• Performance of China’s Hong Kong Shares Has Been a Long-Term Letdown (WSJ)
• The Broker Who Saved America (The Reformed Broker)
• Gold, and Why So Many Investors Fall for Bubbles (Motley Fool)
• 12 Amazing Staircases Around the World (The World Geography)
• 'I wish we had one more year:' States are struggling to launch Obamacare on time (Wonkblog)
• Cockatoos ‘pick’ puzzle box locks (EurekAlert)
• Addressing (unintended) disrespect in your professional community. (Scientific American)
• Get Ready for the Next China (Yale Global)
• The New Economics of Part-Time Employment (Economix)

What are you reading?
• The Classic Index Design of Weighting Stocks by Market Value Was Beaten by 13 Alternatives in One Study http://on.wsj.com/16TOjNv (WSJ)

• How The Tea Party Spoiled A GOP Governor's Plot To Appear Competent (National Memo)
• How to Have a Year that Matters (Harvard Business Review)
• Something Old, Something New (Wired)
• Goodbye, Miami (Rolling Stone)
• The NYU Scandal Has the Same Cast of Characters as NYSE-Grasso-Gate (Wall Street on Parade)
• China Signals More Inaction on Credit (WSJ)
• Emerging Markets Are on Their Own (WSJ)
• Weekend Confidential: Daniel Ek (WSJ)
• An unwind in the great Chinese over-invoicing carry-trade? (FT Alphaville) see also China’s threatening financial crisis: Where Will It End? (Barron’s)
• Ben Bernanke’s Rotten Week (Barron’s)
• As Prisons Squeeze Budgets, GOP Rethinks Crime Focus (WSJ)
• The Collapse of Science, Not Housing, Ended the American Dream (Huffington Post)
• There's a Reason for Deposit Insurance (NYT)
• Riding the Subway with Stanley Kubrick (Museum of the City of New York)
• The Remarkable Properties of Mythological Social Networks (MIT Technology Review)
• World's Biggest Pension Fund Doubts 2% Inflation for Japan (Bloomberg)
• Today's ranking of the world's richest people (Bloomberg)
• Et Tu, Bernanke? (NYT)
• Two Economies in Turmoil, for Different Reasons (NYT)
• The Problem With Too Many Millionaires (NYT)
• I Saw the Secret Trade Deal (Alan Grayson’s Emails)
• Distracted walking: injuries soar for pedestrians on phones (Eureka Alert)
• On Everything (Seeking Wisdom)
• Papering Over App Store Problems (stratechery)
• Introducing Aaron's Law, a Desperately Needed Reform of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (Wired)
• Tesla Shows Off A 90-Second Battery Swap System, Wants It At Supercharging Stations By Year's End (TEch Crunch)
• Finance people are from Mars, and economics people are from Venus (Wonkblog)
• Career Hit A Roadblock? Fox News Has A Job For You (Talking Points Memo)
• Meet America's Most Shameless Defender of the 1 Percent, Harvard Economist Greg Mankiw (AlterNet)
• Demographers Discover The Fundamental Law Governing the Growth of Cities (MIT Technology Review)
• How Immigration Reform Would Help the Economy (Economix)
• Big Ben theory not working (New York Post)
• Pension Fund Takes Neighborly Advice (WSJ)
• Why it's more important for CNBC's Jim Cramer to be loud than right (MarketWatch)
• Data You Can Believe In (NYT)
• Independently funded studies on the safety of GM food (boing-boing) see also Guide to GENERA (Biology Fortified, Inc.)
• More evidence the iPhone 4 is Apple's key to emerging markets (Gigaom)
• How to Make a Vesper: Design (Vesper)
• How Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, and other business chiefs hold ruthlessly effective meetings (Quartz)
• Super Sugar Keeps Naked Mole Rats Cancer-Free (Wired)
• Evil in a Haystack (Foreign Policy)
• Young self-described 'conservatives' underestimate their liberalism (Psypost)
• Markets Are Confused And Stupid, And Apparently People Don’t Know How To Read (Business Insider)
• From Ike to "The Matrix": Welcome to the American dystopia (Salon)
• Exposing the Social Security solvency hype (MarketWatch)
• Warm Oceans Major Cause of Ice Loss in Antarctica (USNews)

REIT Outlook Positive Despite Recent Fall
Chart
Source: WSJ

Tracking Risk Isn’t So Easy
Chart
Source: WSJ

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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EVERGREEN
• Josh Brown on having an edge in investing: Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others (TRB)
• Finance people are from Mars, and economics people are from Venus (Wonkblog)
• Top five regrets of the dying (theguardian)
• How to Have a Year that Matters (Harvard Business Review)
• Finance blogger wisdom: a post-Bogle world (Abnormal Returns)
• How to Handle Collectibles as Client Assets (Advisor One)
• Asia's richest man is betting $1.26 billion on the trash crisis (Quartz)
• Sushi Aid in $1 Trillion U.S. Farm Bill Irks Watchdogs (Bloomberg)
• Congress is wildly unpopular. Should anyone actually care? (Wonkblog)
• Apple has become a design follower instead of a leader — and it may be just fine with that (Gigaom)
• How Consistency Leads to Overconfidence (priceonomics)
• Read This and Blush: Naughty Medieval French Tales (Daily Beast)
• FINRA posts $10.5 million profit on higher fees (Reuters)• This column will change your life: why Rolf Dobelli isn’t thinking clearly (theguardian)
• Is Anything Stopping a Truly Massive Build-Out of Desert Solar Power? (Scientific American)
• Around the world in 20 gaffes (Telegraph)
• Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Wages: A Debate Between Miles Kimball and Matthew Rognlie (Supply-Side Liberal)
• What is “neoclassical” economics? (Noahpinion)
• How to Be a Better Boss (Scientific American)
• From Fox News to Rush: Secrets of the right's lie machine (Salon)
• The world's new largest building is four times the size of Vatican City (Quartz)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tokyo Shares Get a Second Look Some Investors See Recent Decline in Stocks as a Buying Opportunity; ‘Japan Is Now Undervalued’
Graphic
Source: WSJ

 

• What Sweden Can Tell Us About Obamacare (NYT)
• Instead Of Fiscal Cliff, Call It “Cliffgate” 2014 (Capital Gains and Games)
• The hidden threat to your portfolio (MarketWatch)
• Seeking Exposé, Students End Up in Handcuffs (NYT)
• Dear NSA, let me take care of your slides. (Slide Share)
• Possible vs Probable (Alpha Capture)
• Riskier Junk-Loan Demand Soaring Like It's 2007 (Bloomberg)
• Study: 95% of People Don’t Wash Their Hands ‘Correctly’ (Atlantic)
• What's more important: a college degree or being born rich? (Matt Bruenig)
• Lines Blur in U.S.-Europe Debate on Austerity (NYT)
• World’s Oldest Person Dies—How Can You Live to 100? (National Geographic)
• Going Dark, and Putting Blindfolds on Investors (NYT)
• The Monkey Theory of Human Investing (Forbes)
• Jumbo Rates Lower Than Conforming Rates (The Basis Point)
• Winners and Losers in the Coming Super-Network War (Barron’s)
• Farrell: 11 dark trends killing Millennials' dreams (MarketWatch)
• Can Bernanke Avoid a Meltdown in the Bond Market? (Bloomberg)
• The deep, dark secret of SEO (pandodaily)
• Man on the Run (And Magazine)
• When Shareholders Get Snubbed (Motley Fool)
• SkyMall’s SkyFall (priceonomics)
• Been There, Done That (Furbo)
• Why Netflix is producing original content (Reuters)
• U.S. Set for Smallest Deficit in 5 Years (Real Time Economics)
• Advice for Graduate Students (Dave Giles)
• The Bond Market Vigilantes Are Still Not in the Same Hemisphere As We Are (Brad DeLong)
• Foreign Investors Not Responsible for Nikkei Decline (Marc to Market)
• We Will Never See Hyperinflation (Financial Sense)
• Have We Hit Peak HFT? (Tabb Forum)
• Inflation at 53-Year Low Belies U.S. Demand Vigor (Bloomberg) see also The Biggest Economic Mystery of 2013: What’s Up With Inflation? (Atlantic)
• Overhaul Efforts in Washington Reflect Few Lessons of Housing Crisis (DealBook)
• A Workout for Your Brain, on Your Smartphone (NYT)
• What If the ‘Redcoat NSA’ Had Access to Paul Revere’s Metadata? (Businessweek)
• How Hedge Funds Transfer Wealth From Investors To Managers (Forbes) see also As a group, hedge fund performance 'shockingly bad' (The Royal Gazette Online)
• America's Wealth-Making Machine Is Upside Down (Fiscal Times)
• In Japan, a Growth Strategy With Echoes of the Past (NYT)
• The Fake News Has a Fake Host for Three Months (NYT)
• How Much Is Adorable Worth To You? Is It 116bps A Year? (Dealbreaker)
• The Downside of Entrepreneurial Success (WSJ)
• Next Debt-Ceiling Histrionics Could Do Real Harm (Bloomberg)
• Gut Bacteria’s Belch May Play A Role In Heart Disease (npr)
• Superman’s Jewish Roots on Display at 75th Anniversary Exhibit (DNAinfo)
• Why? (Seeking Wisdom)
• Future Shlock Meet the two-world hypothesis and its havoc (New Republic)
• Picasso and Truth: From Cubism to Guernica, by T J Clark, review (Telegraph)
• The Gentleman Naturalist (Dublin Review of Books)
• Number of the Week: 140% Increase in Food Stamp Use Since 1990 (Real Time Economics)
• Obama says GOP obstruction of nominations is 'unprecedented.' What if he's right? (The Plum Line)
• Wonkbook: The immigration bill is moving right (Wonkblog)
• What Barry Said (The Bonndad Blog)
• NYT Gives Damning-With-Faintest-Praise-Possible Profile of Glenn Greenwald After Surveillance Scoops (naked capitalism)
• Did Hipster Tech Really Save the Obama Campaign? (Wired)
• For a Fiscal Conservative, Spending at Home Passes the Test (Roll Call)

The Shiller P/E (CAPE ratio)
MW-BE420_cape_v_20130620115127_MG
Source: MarketWatch

 

XXXX

Downside of Entrepreneurial Success
Graphic
Source: WSJ
• Scalia Gives Obamacare a Big Boost (Bloomberg)

Whats up?
Beware the ‘Great Rotation’

Source: WSJ

~~~~~~~~~~

• Obama says GOP obstruction of nominations is 'unprecedented.' What if he's right? (The Plum Line)
• Wonkbook: The immigration bill is moving right (Wonkblog)
• Inside Tracks (The New Yorker)
• The Art of Reading: How to Read A Book (Farnam Street)
• Disruptions: The Echo Chamber of Silicon Valley (Bits)
• The Nature of Explanation (Farnam Street)
• For Twitter, the Challenge Is to Keep It All Simple (WSJ)
• The 100% Stock Solution (WSJ)
• Late Stock Drop Belies Strong May (WSJ)
• What Are You Afraid Of? (WSJ)
• The Curious Case of the Unflappable Euro (WSJ)
• The Right to Evade Regulation How corporations hijacked the First Amendment (New Republic)
• College in Sweden is free but students still have a ton of debt. How can that be? (Quartz)
• How to test Weinstein’s provocative theory of everything (New Scientist)
• After crunching Reinhart and Rogoff's data, we've concluded that high debt does not slow growth (Quartz)
• The New ABCs of Mutual Funds (WSJ)
• New Bells and Whistles for 401(k) Plans (WSJ)
• Why TV Has Resisted Disruption (Stratechery)
• In the weeds (asymco)
• 4 Economic Predictions Prove Doomsayers Wrong (Fiscal Times)
• Wonkbook: Americans haven't rebuilt 91 percent of their wealth. They've rebuilt less than 45 percent. (Wonkblog)
• The Republican Riddle: What the States Know That the Feds Don't (Trading 8s)
• Bernanke Economy in Fed Centennial Poised for GDP Growth (Bloomberg)
• All Your Skype Are Belong To Us (Financial Cryptography)

The Verdict Is In: Hedge Funds Aren’t Worth the Money
Graphic
Source: WSJ

• Unprecedented e-mail privacy bill sent to Texas governor's desk (arstechnica)
• The most feared man on Wall St. (New York Post)
• Why Didn’t the SEC Catch Madoff? It Might Have Been Policy Not To (Taibblog)
• Six Charts That Prove The Tax Code Was Written For The Rich (Business Insider)
• Machines for Life (Pitch Fork)
• Walking Your Octopus (iTunes)
• 20 Things You Didn’t Know About… Beer (Discover)
• Use your personal smartphone for work email? Your company might take it (The Redtape Chronicles)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
• The Art of Designing Luxury Model Apartments (WSJ)
• Radical Predictions That Fell Flat (Yahoo Finance)
• Wall Street Turns to 'Boot Camps' to Bring New Workers Up to Speed (Dealbook)
• The Cord-Cutting Fantasy (stratechery)
• Fed Stance Spells Woe for Emerging-Market Currencies (WSJ)
• Swoon in Bonds Puts Eye on Fed (WSJ)
• Venetian Finds (WSJ)
• What is wrong (and right) in economics? (Dani Rodrik)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

• Economy Not Nearly Good Enough To Take Credit For Everyone Getting Knocked Up Circa Sandy (Dealbreaker)

Is Economy Doing Better Than GDP Suggests? (Real Time Economics)

• Who Should Actually Have Say on Pay? (Harvard Business Review)

• Government Potholes on Road to Recovery (Real Time Economics)

• Choosing the Next Head of the Federal Reserve (Economix)

• An answer to a lunar mystery: Why is the moon's gravity so uneven? (MIT news)

• Oil & Trains (excerpt) (Dr.Ed’s Blog)

• Cradle Turns Smartphone Into Handheld Biosensor; 'Performs as Accurately as a Large $50,000 Spectrophotometer in the Laboratory' (Cryptogon)

• RIAA Makes Drastic Employee Cuts as Revenue Plummets (Torrent Freak)

• Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it (The Conversation)

• For The Republicans To Re-Emerge, Horatio Alger Must Die (Forbes)

• Why Some Countries Are Dominated By The 1%, While Others Are Not (Business Insider)
but see Debating Helicopter Money (while the lunatics continue to run the asylum) (mainly macro)

• Bob Dole's Delinquent Children (American Conservative)
• 45 yEARS Ago: The Beatles Begin Recording ‘The White Album’ (Ultimate Classic Rock)
• Microsoft ‘U-turn’ sees Start button back on Windows 8 (BBC)

• An Auction? Most EBay Users Don’t Have Time for That (Businessweek)
• This Is How the NRA Ends A bigger, richer, meaner gun-control movement has arrived (New Republic)
• Good old days: What can the modern world learn from older societies? (Barking Up the Wrong Tree)
• Creative companies: What are the 10 secrets of innovative offices? (Barking Up the Wrong Tree)
• We're Winning the War on Poverty (Slate)
• Why the Shareholder Rescue Never Comes (ProPublica)
• Do falling tax rates explain the rising incomes of the top 1%? (Miles Corak)
• China Failure to Grow With $1 Trillion Is Warning to Li (Bloomberg)
• Apple CEO Says Game Changers In Development Boost Lineup (Bloomberg)

• C.E.O.'s Don't Need to Earn Less. They Need to Sweat More. (NYT)
• Flawed System Suits the Shareholders Just Fine (Dealbook)
• Bartlett: Getting to Tax Reform (Economix)
• Today's GOP is fundamentally unserious about governing (The Plum Line)

• Surprise! When the rich get richer, taxes go lower (Wonkblog)
• Promiscuous media (Reuters)
• China Credit-Bubble Call Pits Fitch's Chu Against S&P (Bloomberg)• Obamacare Unveiled as California, New York Lead U.S. (Bloomberg)
• Apple CEO Says Game Changers in Development to Boost Lineup (Bloomberg)

• WonkWatch: Accurate and Inaccurate Ways of Portraying the Debt-and-Growth Association (Brad DeLong)

~~~

• Accounting Fraud Targeted (WSJ)
• Paint Bombs (New Yorker)
• Naming Names in the Dodd Frank Mess (The American Prospect)
• Bogus IRS scandal actually a Supreme Court scandal (Politics in the Zeros)
• Open-plan offices make employees less productive, less happy, and more likely to get sick (Quartz)
• How a Big-Bank Failure Could Unfold (Economix)
• Almost all states seeing big drop in teen birth rates (CBSNews)
• Netflix Declares War on Nickelodeon (Fiscal Times)
• Watch out. The mortgage securities market is at it again. (Fortune)
• Debt Without Drowning (Project Syndicate)
• Pessimism and priorities in advanced economies (FT Alphaville)
• How to Enjoy Your Decision (Scientific American)
• Discovered: The Molecule Responsible for Itchiness (Smithsonian Magazine)
• Defining My Dyslexia (NYT)
• The Debt-Ratio Distraction (Project Syndicate)
• Mike Epps Hot Rods and Luxury Cars (GQ)
• Farm Subsidy Recipient Backs Food Stamp Cuts (NYT)

 

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~~~~
• How Congress Quietly Overhauled Its Insider-Trading Law (npr)

• The Biggest Bubble of Them All (Minyanville)
A weeks profits! Big whoop! Nasdaq fined $10 million by SEC for Facebook IPO (MarketWatch)

Five Reasons it's Wrong to Steal Other People's Content (Positively Peggy)
• Confusion to the Skeptics (Barron’s)
• Swindles and Spam, Lurking in Your Search Results (NYT)
• Shocking Before And After Pictures Of How Climate Change Is Destroying The Earth (Business Insider)
• Tech Industry After 2007 Loss Drafts Own Rules for Visas (Bloomberg)
• It's all been for nothing – that is, if we ignore the millions of jobs lost etc (Bill Mitchell)
• Bootstrapping the Industrial Age (The Technium)
• Fabergé Fractals by Tom Beddard (Justin Ruckman)
• The Canadian War on Science: A long, unexaggerated, devastating chronological indictment (Science Blogs)
• The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): The History of a Failed Revolutionary Idea in Finance? (Social Science Research Network)
• The Bush Tax-Cut Failure (Economix)
• We Tracked Down Our Biggest Troll…and Kind of Liked Him (Mother Jones)
• The too-smart city (Boston Globe)

 

• A New Era for Do-It-Yourself Investing (WSJ)
• How to kill the European repo market in 10 easy steps (FT Alphaville)
• Saying More than “When the Storm is Long Past the Ocean is Flat” (Brad DeLong)

• Buffett Ignores Gross's New Normal, Pities Bond Investors (Bloomberg)

• New 'Game of Thrones' battlefield is America (MarketWatch)
• Pete Peterson's austerity front group, Fix the Debt: more shenanigans revealed! (Washington Monthly)
• Awesome energy innovations, courtesy of Uncle Sam (MarketWatch)
• Rand Paul will never be president (Salon)
• Upgrade or Die (The New Yorker)
• Save your kids from financial disaster (MarketWatch)
• Creative Dad Takes Most Adorable Kids Photos Ever (Twisted Sifter)
• The Chutzpah Caucus (NYT) see also France Declares Austerity Over as Germany Offers Wiggle Room (Bloomberg)
• How MailChimp learned to treat data like orange juice and rethink email in the process (Gigaom)
• The Idled Young Americans (NYT)
• Robin Thicke ‘Blurred Lines’ (Dirty Version) (Vimeo)
• Apple Misses iPhone Customers as Global Carriers Balk (Bloomberg)
• Buffett Offers a Sketch of Berkshire’s Next Era (WSJ)
• 15 of the Most Fascinating Looking Fungi in the World (Twisted Sifter)
• Of Acorns and Oaks (Mutual Fund Observer)
• George Osborne's Fear of Ghosts (NYT) see also George Osborne to tell IMF that austerity U-turn would do damage (theguardian)
• Mario Gabelli, the $750 Million Man (DealBook)

 

• In Brown-Vitter Bill, a Banking Overhaul With Possible Teeth (DealBook) see also Jeffrey Sachs: Banking Abuses 'Can't Get More in Your Face' (MoneyBeat)
• U.S. Spending Cuts Seen as Key in Slowing Growth (NYT)

• The Science of Serendipity in the Workplace (WSJ)
• Is This the Most Hated Bull Market Ever? (WSJ)
• Medicaid Access Increases Use of Care, Study Finds (NYT)
• Rise of the conservative revolutionaries (Salon) see also Republicans Not Happy the Tea Party Ain't Goin' Away (Dvorak Uncensored)
• Bush v. Gore doubts voiced by Justice O’Connor for first time (Christian Science Monitor)
• Your Money: 401(k) fees make or break returns (USA Today) see also BrightScope Releases Top 25 Tech Cos With Best 401k Plans (WSJ)
• Eugene Scalia, Antonin Scalia’s Son, Described As ‘An Absolute Bulldog’ On Dodd-Frank (Huffington Post)
• Why high corporate profits aren't so bad (Reuters)
• Building a Smarter Portfolio (Financial Planning)
• Senate Shows Unanimous Support For Ending Too-Big-To-Fail Subsidy (Huffington Post) see also Brown, Vitter Unveil Legislation That Would End "Too Big To Fail" Policies (Sherrod Brown)
• Big Banks are Victims of Their Own Success (ProPublica)

• The Case Against Cronies: Libertarians Must Stand Up to Corporate Greed (Atlantic)
• Watch Out USA: Mexico Has its Own Asia Pivot Plan (The Diplomat)

• The hole the mutual fund industry has dug for itself (Financial Post)

• Web Apps vs. Native Apps Is Still a Thing (Daring Fireball)

• Without Excusing Obamanomics, Bushonomics Was a Dismal Failure (Real Clear Markets)
• Best Of The Ed Balls Meme (BuzzFeed)

• Show Yourself the Money (GQ)
• Bucket Portfolio Maintenance: There’s More Than One Way to Get It Done (Morningstar)
• Down Payment Rules Are at Heart of Mortgage Debate (DealBook) and see U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall With 15-Year at Lowest on Record (Bloomberg)
• Is There Evidence of a Supernova in the Fossils of Ancient Bacteria? (Scientific American)
• The Treasury's Mistaken View on Too Big to Fail (Economix)

• High-mass pulsar binary provides best test of general relativity (arstechnica)
• Remains of a supernova fall to Earth (arstechnica)
• Current reading: 398.36 ppm (The Keeling Curve)
• Wall Street vs. Its Employees’ Privacy (WSJ)

• Scientists in Antarctica Find Invading Neutrinos from Another Galaxy! (Slate)

 

• How does China censor the internet? (Economist)

see also Self-Driving Cars by 2020? Sort Of, Cadillac Says (WSJ)

• When Our Kids Own America (npr)
• From Lehman to Cyprus (Economix) see also In Cyprus, Europe Sets a New Standard for Stupidity (Bloomberg)
• Shadow Economy Shows Joblessness Less Than Meets U.S. Eye (Bloomberg)
• How would you like to invest in immortality? (Fortune)
• 50 words that will improve your writing (Bad Language)
• The Touch-Screen Generation (The Atlantic) see also J.D. Power: average smartphone satisfaction is up, fights are fierce for second place (engadget)
• Delong: Shrugging off Atlas’s theory of the moocher class (Democracy)
• The Politics of the 14th Amendment and the Debt Limit (Economix)
• World from Berlin: ‘Last Euro-Crisis Taboo Broken’ (Spiegel)
• California Nonpartisan Districting Ousts Life Incumbents (Bloomberg)
• GOP: We've been lying all along (Salon)
• Uber, Data Darwinism and the future of work (Gigaom)
• Google keyword advertising is waste of money, says eBay report (theguardian)
• Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy (WSJ)
• Law Schools and Other Shameless Schemes (WSJ)
• Why Conservatives Want to Break Up the Banks, Too (New Republic)
• Investors Embrace Climate Change, Chase Hotter Profits (Bloomberg)
• Deciphering Dynamic Asset Allocation: Lessons From Perold and Sharpe (CCSA)
• To Reassure Investors, Fed Stresses It Will Not End Stimulus (NYT)
• Number of Cases Filed by SEC Slows (WSJ)
• Sowing the wind (Coppola Comment)
• How Hank Paulson’s Office Colluded With JPMorgan And Subverted Efforts To Rescue Lehman (OpEdNews)
• Bitcoin Combines Ph.D-Level Computer Science With Sub-Kindergarten-Level Monetary Understanding (Forbes)

• Wall Street power player: We're incentivized to cheat (Salon)
• How Netflix Built the New Couch Potato (Atlantic Wire)
• Empires of the Sun (WSJ)
• The Most Life-Changing Hot Dog in America Is… (Esquire)
• Secrecy for Sale: Inside the Global Offshore Money Maze (ICIJ)
• Do Americans still not get Reaganomics? (Salon)
• The Psychology of Language: Why Are Some Words More Persuasive Than Others? (lifehacker)
• 100 Websites You Should Know and Use (updated!) (TED)

• The IMF is flunking the financial crisis (Telegraph)
• Gold Gaining as Physical Demand Said to Be 'Extraordinary' (Bloomberg) see also The case for owning gold has collapsed (MarketWatch)
• Sorting the Real Sandy Photos From the Fakes (Atlantic)
• Why Do People Hate Their Jobs? (The Altucher Confidential)
• Why ‘financial literacy’ is a bunch of hooey – and why the banks promote it (theguardian)
• For the Love of God, Just Call It a Filibuster (Atlantic)

• The Forecast is Beautiful: Introducing The Yahoo! Weather App for iPhone, iPod and iPod Touch (Flickr)
• 50 Time Saving Tips for Small Businesses (Small Business Trends)
• Austerity Is Based on Fear and Greed, Not Theory (Real Time Economics)
• Hatzius: Dealers Say No End to QE in '13; 2016 Rate Rise (Bloomberg)

• Unified Theory of the Stock Market (FinancialPhysics)
• Stormy Days for China's Solar Industry (The Diplomat)
• Fed Officials Back Higher Capital (WSJ)
• A Falling Unemployment Rate Is Always Good (Bloomberg)
• 50 Experts on Parties, Management, Zombies, Self-Improvement, and More (Businessweek)
• Debating Apple’s Stock as It Hovers Near $400 (Barron’s)
• The Bull Market’s Last Stand? (Barron’s)
• Gold ETF Selling Would Dump More Bullion on Market After Crash (ETF Trends)
• No House Party for Bank of America (WSJ)
• Abolish the Senate; don't just reform it (MarketWatch)
• Senate Vote 97 – Defeats Manchin-Toomey Background Checks Proposal (NYT)
• The Myth that Insulating Boards Serves Long-Term Value (SSRN)
• Strength in the Face of Evil (One Foot Tsunami)
• When Swindlers Worked the 'Big Con' on Stock Investors (Echoes)

• Exiting unconventional policy will be unconventional (FT Alphaville)
• Victims of Foreclosure Abuses Face Another Woe: Bounced Checks (DealBook)
• Iranian Scientist Claims to Have Built “Time Machine” (National Geographic)
• You play like you practice (37signals)
• Everybody, Get Ready for the Smallest U.S. Investment Budget in Recorded History (Atlantic)
• How Much Do 5,000 Twitter Followers Cost? (priceonomics)
• Congress repeals STOCK Act reporting requirements for senior execs (Federal News Radio)
• Why Republicans Suddenly Became Afraid Of Their Own Budget Shadow (Talking Points Memo)
• Sticking to a plan in the face of emotional volatility (Abnormal Returns)
• The Top 10 Private Equity Loopholes (DealBook)
• We Have Seen Gold Prices Act Like This Before (Alhambra Partners) see also Why the Price of Gold is Plummeting: Six Theories (New Yorker)
• The Wealthy Keep the Tax Man Guessing (NYT)
• Most likely market-bust scenario (MSN Money) see also Dow 36,000, just around the corner (again) (Columbia Journalism Review)
• The Conspiracy to Make Wingnuts Paranoid and Stupid, Starring Rick Santelli (No More Mister Nice Blog)
• Overcoming Your Clients' Emotional Volatility (AdvisorOne)
• The Great Debt Delusion: How Math Keeps Proving Austerity Wrong (Atlantic)
• Empirical Methods and Progress in Macroeconomics (Economist’s View)
• Obama Signs Law Gutting Insider Trading Regulations For Congress (Firedoglake)
• The GOP's fiscal farce (Washington Post)
• 'Trickle-down consumption': How rising inequality can leave everyone worse off (Wonkblog)
• The Tailwinds Pushing the U.S. Dollar Higher (of two minds)

 

• Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon are all trying to turn into the same uber-company (Quartz)

• Former Senator to Run Wall St. Lobby Group (DealBook)
• You Are Less Beautiful Than You Think (Scientific American)

• How to Know When Apple Finally Gets iCloud Right (The Shape of Everything)
• Investigation Into Oil Industry Price Rigging Mirrors LIBOR Scandal (Update Post)
• Plight of the Navigators (WSJ)
• Junk Stocks Spur Broadest Equity Advance Since 1995 (Bloomberg)
• Vitamins That Cost Pennies a Day Seen Delaying Dementia (Bloomberg)
• The weirdest centipede ever (Why Evolution is True) see also Mozambique Diary: Alipes (The Smaller Majority)

 

 

 

• The Economic Nature of the Resource Curse: Evidence (Why Nations Fail)

• Euro Crisis Mires Continent in Longest Slump Since War (WSJ)

• World's Biggest Volatility Jump Spurs Fund Outflow (Bloomberg)
• Everyone in the Chase Pool…Remember This Moment (Howard Lindzon)
• Argument with Myself (London Review of Books)
• Signs of new housing bubble in several areas (Fortune)

• Rajat Gupta's Lust for Zeros (NYT)
• Be a Smart Investment News Consumer (Learn Bonds)
• Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush (Bloomberg)

• How Much Would It Cost to Build the Starship Enterprise? (Gizmodo)

• Telecom's Big Players Hold Back the Future (NYT)

• Climate change may be baring Mount Everest (Los Angeles Times)
• Asset Allocation for Muppets with a 401(k) (25iq)
• Extreme Outcomes (Morningstar)
• Surprise! Inflation is too low almost everywhere on earth (Wonkblog)
• Just How Useless Is the Asset-Management Industry? (Harvard Business Review)
• ‘What about Marx?’ (Economist’s View)
• Mr.Indispensable (Epicurean Dealmaker)
• The New Barbecue (WSJ)
• The Dollar is Poised for an Upward Explosion (WSJ)

• The Real I.R.S. Scandal (NYT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (Bloomberg)
• Bull-Market Behavior Flares as Stocks Melt Up (Yahoo Finance)
• Gold: Be cautious when getting caught in the rush (Desert News)
• Longer Odds for Short-Selling Success (WSJ)
• Accounting Change Could Boost Companies’ Debt (WSJ)
• Why is Science Behind a Paywall? (priceonomics)
• Why Google’s new music service might actually work (CNNMoney)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (Bloomberg)

• There’s That Word Again (Alhambra Investment Partners)
• Why Did the U.S. Financial Sector Grow? (Conversable Economist)
• The Myth of a Perfect Orderly Liquidation Authority for Big Banks (Economix) see also Big Banks Get Break in Rules to Limit Risks (DealBook)
• As of today, every major mobile competitor… also makes apps for iOS (iMore) see also The register reinvented (Square Up)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

~~~
• 13 Benghazis That Occurred on Bush’s Watch Without a Peep from Fox News (HuffPo)
• When Computer Games May Keep the Brain Nimble (WSJ)

• Here’s The Real Reason People Bash Bernanke And Keynes When They’re On Stage At Conferences (Business Insider)
• What the Central Bank Giveth, Only the Central Bank Taketh Away (Barnejek)
• Fed in 2008 Showed Panic of 1907 Was Excessive (Bloomberg)
• Is the Fed Afraid to Regulate the Big Banks? (Bloomberg)
• Fed in 2008 Showed Panic of 1907 Was Excessive (Bloomberg)
• Rating Firms Steer Clear of an Overhaul (WSJ)

• Unreliable Sources: How the News Media Help the Koch Brothers and ExxonMobil Spread Climate Disinformation (Union of Concerned Scientists)
• AT LAST: A Secure, Key-Free Way To Unlock Your Front Door Has Been Invented (Business Insider)
• What Happened to the Internet Productivity Miracle? (New Yorker)
• Science fiction novels for economists (Noahpinion)
• Message to a Graduate (Explore)

~~~~~

Telegraph

• Double coverage: How The Boston Globe used its dual sites to cover the marathon bombing (Nieman Journalism Lab)

 

• To hedge inflation, property trusts are the new gold (Reuters)
• The Scientific 7-Minute Workout (NYT)
• The news media is even worse than you think (MarketWatch)
• Recovery in Germany Is Faster Than Elsewhere (NYT)
• Why Ben Bernanke Still Worries About Wall Street (Businessweek)
• No Lehman Moments as Biggest Banks Deemed Too Big to Fail (Bloomberg)
• Cool Portable Bicycle Concept (Reflections of Me)
• Is the Fed Blowing Bubbles? (Slate)
• Thoughts on the future of finance blogging (FT Alphaville) see also Finance blogging is not for the faint of heart (Abnormal Returns)
• Big Banks Push Back Against Tighter Rules (WSJ)
• Watch Manhattan's Boundaries Expand Over 250 Years (Gizmodo)

~~~

No Lehman Moments as Biggest Banks Deemed Too Big to Fail
Chart

Chart
Source: Bloomberg

Spitzer’s Attempted Comeback

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:15 PM PDT

Click for video
Video
Source: FT Alphaville

S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 09:30 AM PDT

We haven’t looked at this chart in some time: S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

 

Click to enlarge
Chart
Source: J.P. Morgan

10 Monday AM Reads

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 07:00 AM PDT

My morning reads:

• Finance set to surpass tech as most-profitable U.S. industry (USA Today)
• China Wealth Eludes Foreigners as Stocks Earn 1% in 20 Years (Bloomberg)
• Why It's Time to Pay Attention to Europe Again (iShares)
• If the US economic recovery keeps its present pace, goldbugs and miners can expect bad news (Telegraph) see also Unbelievable investor letters like this are why people think gold bugs are stupid (Behavioral Macro)
• The Big Backlash against hedge funds  (The Reformed Broker)
• Time To Move On From the Taper Tantrums (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch) see also Bernanke Boom Signaled by Yield Surge as Market Recalculates (Bloomberg)
Its not just the USA: Ailing Infrastructure: Scrimping Threatens Germany’s Future (Spiegel) see also Rising interest rates could mean the window to fix infrastructure on the cheap is closing (Washington Post)
• To Rescue Local Economies, Cities Seize Underwater Mortgages Through Eminent Domain (The Nation)
• Disruptions: Hollywood, or Silicon Valley: Where's the Money? (Bits)
• The PC Market Isn’t Dead Yet, but It’s Barely Breathing (Barron’s)

What are you reading?

 

Tame Inflation Also Has Some Drawbacks
Chart
Source: WSJ

Anyone But Larry Summers . . .

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 04:25 AM PDT

At a dinner last week laden with economists, our discussion turned to who will replace Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. The consensus was Janet Yellen was the front runner, Roger Ferguson was the long shot . . . and then Lawrence Summers’ name arose.

Longtime readers know I have little respect for the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard President. Despite his alleged brilliance, he seems to exhibit what can charitably be described as the worst judgment of any economist ever in existence. Granted, discussing economists with poor judgement is an embarrassment of riches, but Summers manages to surpass that crowd in ways never previously imagined.

He is essentially a smarter version of Alan Greenspan — only lacking Greenspan’s keen judgment, insight and humility (in case it escaped your notice, this is sarcasm ).

Consider Summers “brilliant” track record:

•  He has consistently argued for privatization and deregulation of the financial sector;

• He oversaw the repeal of Glass-Steagall via the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act;

• He approved the (previously illegal) merger between Citibank and Travelers;

• He oversaw (and indeed encouraged) concentration in the financial sector, thinking bulked up banks are a virtue. This led to the rise of the TBTF institutions (formerly known as mega-banks).

• He successfully fought Brooksley Born, then chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to rein in financial derivatives;

• He oversaw passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, preventing ALL Federal regulation of derivatives; The CFMA also exempted derivatives from state insurance oversight and antigambling laws.

• Thanks to Summers, derivatives still have no minimum reserve requirements, no disclosure obligations, no transparency and no exchange listing / reporting requirements.

After he helped to create the financial crisis and collapse, Summers found himself uniquely situated to help repair the damage he wrought. But that would have required an admission of error and responsibility; instead, he compounded his errors by pushing for a small, ineffective stimulus plan.

Note we have not even bothering with his issues with woman, his lack of collegiality, his inability to work well with others, his boorish head strong personality, and his other professional failings.

Whats next after we put Larry Summers in charge of the Fed? How much further can he fail upwards . . . ?

 

 

See also:
Summers Said to Show Interest in Fed Chairman Nomination (Bloomberg)

Larry Summers and the Subversion of Economics  (The Chronicle Review)

I Come to Bury Larry Summers, Not to Praise Him… (New Yorker)

Larry Summers: "Mistakes Were Made," But Not By Me (PR Watch)

 

Chart Attack: Mutual Fund Outflows

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 03:30 AM PDT

I forgot to publish this Bloomberg appearance from last week — here is the last segments, looking at monthly mutual fund outflows on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”


on retail and obsolescence:

On today’s “Chart Attack, Fusion IQ CEO Barry Ritholtz and Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson
Chart Bill Gross Doesn’t Want You to See

Source: July 9 2013 Bloomberg

Report from Jackson Hole

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 03:00 AM PDT

Report from Jackson Hole
David R. Kotok
July 13, 2013

 

 

At Jackson Hole this week, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented a slide demonstrating that in a previous round of QE policy the inflation rate rose near the 2% target of the Fed (Federal Reserve). He then noted that during the present round of QE the year-over-year inflation rate is closer to 1%. He also noted that rising commodity pricing contributed to a higher inflation rate during the first round of QE and that the present trend is downward as commodity prices continue to decline worldwide.

My takeaway from Bullard's presentation is that he is worried about falling inflation. My sense is he does not want to see the Fed in a position where the inflation rate approaches zero and the Fed's actions to remove some stimulus turn out to exacerbate volatility, thereby undermining the effectiveness of QE policy.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser noted that the employment situation is improving in the US. He particularly noted the revisions outlined in the last employment report. Plosser is concerned about waiting too long before tapering and about getting to a more neutral policy stance. He outlined his arguments thoughtfully and eloquently. He noted the characteristics of the forecasts by members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), of which he is one.

My takeaway from Plosser's comments is that he is worried the Fed will wait too long. Listening to both Bullard and Plosser, the audience could observe the collegiality of these two FOMC members. The skill with which they both argued their points of view, as well as the data they presented, was impressive.

The audience of over 200 at Jackson Hole was divided on its viewpoints. One of the Fed presidents pointed out the surveys conducted of audience opinions showed the same types of divisions that occur within the FOMC.

While he was not at Jackson Hole, Ben Bernanke was the subject of many conversations during the roundtable discussions and conference. His speech last week triggered market changes. It appears as if he attempted to undo some of the miscommunication that occurred in prior weeks. He seems concerned about the rise in home mortgage interest rates and how it may slow housing's recovery.

Ben Bernanke and his potential successor were also the subject of much discussion. In a survey of the 200 in attendance, Janet Yellen emerged as the front-running choice, with Tim Geithner and Larry Summers falling in line behind her. A small portion of the audience felt it would be someone other than these three. Of course, everyone admitted that this is a political decision, and the sooner it is made and vetted in the marketplace and among the general public, the better for everyone. That said, our takeaway from the conversation is that a decision on succession is not expected until early autumn.

Bernanke has a chance to clarify things again when he testifies this week. We believe he will affirm the statement he made last week in the Q&A period following his speech: "You can only conclude that highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what is needed in the US economy." There is no reason to believe anything will change in his testimony this coming week. We think he will reaffirm his position powerfully. That position is the basis on which we believe that the Bernanke policy will survive Bernanke as Chairman and that the near-zero interest-rate policy will remain in place for several more years

The Jackson Hole meeting was packed with terrific information. I will not repeat what is available on the GIC (Global Interdependence Center) website. Readers can get all the slides, programs, and comments at www.interdependence.org.

The investment panel responded at the end with another round of diverse opinions. Those presentations, too, are on the GIC website.

Our takeaways from conversations at Jackson Hole will be applied at Cumberland to our portfolio management. The conversations basically indicate that the federal funds rate, currently anchored between 0.0 and 0.25 percent, is not going to change for another couple of years. The Fed may enlarge its balance sheet to over $4 trillion before it levels things off and begins to gradually allow maturities to roll off. Or the Fed might enlarge its balance sheet somewhat less and peak at $3.8 trillion. Or it could do more and go to $4.2 trillion. Our conclusion is that the exact level does not make much difference at this point.

The key interest rate set by the FOMC is near zero. It has been there for about five years. We have not seen any inflation pressure. We still see a gradual healing of the employment situation, with an overhang of millions of underemployed or underutilized workers. It is likely to take many years for US employment to become more robust and stable.

At very low interest rates there is an upward bias in asset prices, including prices for real estate, stocks, collectibles, and other assets for which valuations depend upon interest rates as a discounting mechanism.

Our bias is to remain fully invested in the US stock market, which we think will head higher and close higher at the end of this year. Our bond accounts emphasize spread product, particularly in the municipal bond area. Tax-free bonds are cheap.

~~~

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors

.

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