The Big Picture

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• Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty
• The Big Picture Conference On Demand
• 10 Mid-Week PM Reads
• We’re Hiring!
• How Japan’’s national debt grew so large
• Vampire REOs and Zombie Foreclosures
• Household Debt-to-Income Ratio, USA vs Canada
• 10 MidWeek AM Reads
• Focus on the 5 Things That Really Matter
• Cosmic Roulette

Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty Posted: 10 Oct 2013 02:00 AM PDT

The Big Picture Conference On Demand Posted: 09 Oct 2013 04:30 PM PDT Sign up using the player above or go to Fora.tv and get your 60-day pass there.

10 Mid-Week PM Reads Posted: 09 Oct 2013 02:30 PM PDT My afternoon train reading: • Yellen as Americans' Favorite Shows Fed Is Captured by Democracy (Bloomberg) • World likely to have 11 trillionaires within two generations: Credit Suisse (MarketWatch) • Debt-Limit Disaster Is Exponentially Worse Than 2008 Lehman Debacle (Daily Beast) but see Everyone’s Talking About This Sneaky Solution To The Debt Ceiling That Might Be Even Better Than The Platinum Coin (Business Insider) • Rallies End When "Good News" is Sold (The Reformed Broker) • The great diversification bait and switch (FT Alphaville) • US budget: Sequestration nation (FT.com) see also Recession Looms If Treasury Uses Tools to Prevent a Default (Bloomberg) • US Shadow Inventory Reaches Five-Year Low (World Property Channel) • Special Report: U.S. builders hoard mineral rights under new homes (Reuters) • The New Science of Who Sits Where at Work (WSJ) • Piracy Isn't Killing The Entertainment Industry, Scholars Show (Torrent Freak) What are you reading?   S&P 500 Hits Most Oversold Level Since June Source: Bespoke

We’re Hiring! Posted: 09 Oct 2013 01:28 PM PDT   We’re hiring! We are looking for a new Sales Assistant. We have a position open for Sales Assistant with a start date of November 1st, for our newly launched financial planning and wealth management firm. The ideal candidate has : -minimum 3 years experience working for a financial services firm (RIA, wirehouse, bank, etc.) in a similar capacity; you will be responsible for account openings, deposits, client communication, transfers and wires, etc. -ability to handle client data, basic financial account management; -incredibly strong organizational skills; -must be proactive, have the ability to work in a fast growing firm; -Series 65/66 not required but a plus   Please send resumes to kris (at) ritholtzwealth.com

How Japan’’s national debt grew so large Posted: 09 Oct 2013 01:00 PM PDT

Vampire REOs and Zombie Foreclosures Posted: 09 Oct 2013 11:30 AM PDT Click for interactive graphic Source: RealtyTrac

Household Debt-to-Income Ratio, USA vs Canada Posted: 09 Oct 2013 09:00 AM PDT click to embiggen Source: BCA     I have been meaning to get to this since I was in Toronto last week, where I saw my friend (and fishing partner) Martin Barnes of BCA give an excellent presentation at the Toronto CFA Prediction Dinner. One of that charts that really stood out to me was the one above. You cans ee how as the housing boom deflated the debt to income ratio fell 30% or so in the US. But in Canada, there was no such day of reckoning, and that ratio diverged from the USA’s and is now above 160%. There are many reasons why Canada’s boom did not bust — their laws require mortgage insurance, minimum down payments and actual credit checks; they have a well regulated banking system less given towards spams of insanity. Economically, energy and minerals are still hot; and there are enormous numbers of Chinese buying up condos in Vancouver and Toronto and elsewhere as a way to get cash out of the country and create an emergency life raft in case China implodes. Regardless of these and many other differences between our two nations, this chart does give one pause . . . .

10 MidWeek AM Reads Posted: 09 Oct 2013 06:45 AM PDT My morning reading: • Five Things You Need to Know About Janet Yellen (Real Time Economics) see also Janet Yellen's Historic Nomination For Federal Reserve Chairwoman (Daily Beast) • 7 Unreliable Economic Indicators That Move Markets (Business Insider) • The Most Likely Debt Ceiling Outcome (Pragmatic Capitalism) • Why America Needs a Stock-Market Crash (Rational Irrationality) see also Market needs to plunge to force Congress to act (CNNMoney) • Hank Greenberg's narcissistic and deluded defense of Jamie Dimon (Columbia Journalism Review) • Understanding Game Theory Being MisPlayed in Washington (Harvard Business Review) • Americans are dumber than average at math, vocabulary, and technology (Quartz) • Secrets of the Happiest Commuters (WSJ) • Tea Party radicalism is misunderstood: Meet the "Newest Right" (Salon) • New Report: Preventable Medical Mistakes Account for One-Sixth of All Annual Deaths in the United States (Mercola) What are you reading?   Top Bankers Warn on U.S. Debt Proposal     Source: WSJ

Focus on the 5 Things That Really Matter Posted: 09 Oct 2013 04:20 AM PDT I was out of the office yesterday – did I (heh heh) miss anything? US markets took a 1-2% shellacking, we have a new Fed Chair nominee, a new iPad event is scheduled for 10/22, and political situation in DC remains an embarrassing mess. And my surprising takeaway about this is that very little of this matters very much, and none of it matters a great deal. That was what I gleaned from a number of very interesting, very knowledgeable speakers and panelists at our conference yesterday. I will eventually post some thoughts on what I took away from the day’s events, but suffice it to say there was wisdom aplenty to be learned. For now, I would suggest that investors turn down the noise and focus on the signals that actually do matter: 1. Valuation: How are stocks valued? Are they cheap or are they expensive? (Keeping in mind that cheap stocks can get MUCH cheaper, and expensive stocks can get MUCH dearer). 2. Trend: What is the economy doing in sum? Is it expanding or contracting? What is the market doing — rising, falling or range-bound? 3. Inflation: What is the overall trend in inflation? Are prices rising or falling or stable — and how rapidly? 4. Earnings: Are companies able to grow their top and bottom lines? 5. Credit: What is the cost and availability of credit? There are lots of other elements we can talk about — but if you understand these  five things and get them more or less correct, you are ahead of 90% of your fellow investors.       Previously: Lose the News (June 2005) Who Do You Trust? (January 2008) The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012) Avoid the Noise (January 2013) Things I Don't Care About (January 15th, 2013) What Do You Control? (May 30th, 2013)

Cosmic Roulette Posted: 09 Oct 2013 03:00 AM PDT Scientists say there are more than a million near-Earth objects in space big enough to destroy a city, but they only know where one percent of them are. Anderson Cooper reports. A dangerous game of “cosmic roulette”? A dangerous game of “cosmic roulette”? October 6, 2013 4:48 PM A dangerous game of “cosmic roulette”?

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