The Big Picture

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• Global Indices & Valuations Are In the Eyes of the Beholder
• Is Surveillance Damaging the American Economy?
• 10 Thursday PM Reads
• Fed Dove-Hawk Scale
• Merrill’s Secular Road Map Projects S&P 500 2300 in 2017
• 10 Thursday AM Reads
• TDS Pizza War: New York vs Chicago

Global Indices & Valuations Are In the Eyes of the Beholder Posted: 22 Nov 2013 02:00 AM PST   "While some would say the markets are undervalued or overvalued, I guess it's all relevant when you ask, compared to what?" From the vaults of Global Financial Data Co: Here are the global valuations of the S&P 500, Nikkei, DAX and the FTSE. Here are the historical valuations for the S&P 500: 1.     1871-2013: 15.99 2.     Last 25 years: 27.98 3.     Last 75 years: 16.90 4.     Today: 19.17   Global Historical Valuations on the S&P 500, Nikkei, DAX and the FTSE P/E Ratio’s And here is the Nikkei to 1915: 1.     P/E Ratio 1956-2013: 65.34 2.     Last 25 years: 156.98 3.     Last 50 years: 72.41 4.     Today: 17   And here is the German DAX to 1890: 1.     P/E Ratio 1969-2013: 16.47 2.     Last 25 years: 16.98 3.     Last 50: N/A 4.     Today: 14   And here is the FTSE to 1850: 1.     P/E Ratio 1927-2013: 16.73 2.     Last 25 years: 16.70 3.     Last 75 years: 16.75 4.     Today: 16.82       Source: rdillon@globalfinancialdata.com

Is Surveillance Damaging the American Economy? Posted: 21 Nov 2013 10:30 PM PST Security Expert: "Buy American Doesn't Sell Well Anymore Because It Means Give A Copy To The NSA"   We've previously noted that mass surveillance is killing American tech companies. And Cisco just blamed its earnings slump on China's disdain for NSA spying. Security expert Bruce Schneier succinctly summed up the destruction of the American economy by the NSA's surveillance yesterday: Buy American doesn't sell well anymore because it means give a copy to the NSA. This is part of a bigger picture … the military-industrial complex (of which the NSA is a part) is killing the private sector economy. And see this.

10 Thursday PM Reads Posted: 21 Nov 2013 01:45 PM PST My afternoon train reading: • Don't Blame the Robots: Assessing the Job Polarization Explanation of Growing Wage Inequality (EPI) see also Ashton Kutcher vs. Wal-Mart: Epic Twitter clash rages over poverty wages (Salon) • This is why you shouldn't pay attention to consumer confidence indicators (Washington Post) • Trading Probes Have a Long Way to Go (WSJ) • Cost Aside, JPMorgan May Have a Good Deal (DealBook) see also JPMorgan's bait-and-switch: The ballyhooed settlement is just a scam! (Salon) • The annual press flubbing of Thanksgiving dinner (CJR’s The Audit) • Desperate to Taper (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch) see also Fed Casts About for ZIRP Endgame (WSJ) • Why Do We Care About Malcolm Gladwell’s Media Diet? (New Republic) • The Social/Communication Map (stratēchery) • The News Provider of the Future (Priceonomics) • Super cool: Bob Dylan’s Official Interactive Video for “Like A Rolling Stone“  (Bob Dylan) What are you reading?   Inflation adjusted Dow trading 0.2% off 1999 peak Source: Chart of the Day

Fed Dove-Hawk Scale Posted: 21 Nov 2013 11:30 AM PST Fed dove-hawk scale Source: Easan Katir

Merrill’s Secular Road Map Projects S&P 500 2300 in 2017 Posted: 21 Nov 2013 09:00 AM PST S&P 2300? Give It Four Years: Ritholtz Chart Source: BAML   It took more than 13 years, but the S&P 500 managed to eclipse its 2007 highs of 1576 earlier this year. This move takes it out of a long term trading range, and according to the Technical Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, marks a transition to a new secular bull market. Some folks might disagree with that characterization. The arguments against are that one cannot tell for sure (and certainly not this soon) after new highs if they are false breakout or not; they may not stick if earnings fall or rates rise. Further, given the Fed's role in driving stock prices, once "the Taper" begins, all bets are off as to whether we stay in the new trading range above SPX 1576. Note that the false breakout was hellish for traders in the 1970s . . .   Continues here

10 Thursday AM Reads Posted: 21 Nov 2013 06:30 AM PST My morning reading: • Grantham: Buy Wood. (Reformed Broker) but see Why guru ETFs beat human gurus (Felix Salmon) • S&P 500 Celebrates One-Year Above 200-Day Moving Average (MoneyBeat) • Stock Market Trading: The 20 Rules of Engagement (Minyanville) see also Four Costly Ideas that Hurt Investors (A Dash of Insight)   Continued here

TDS Pizza War: New York vs Chicago Posted: 21 Nov 2013 03:00 AM PST I am a born and bred New Yorker who loves our pizza. But I also appreciate Chicago pizza like Eduardo’s and Malnati’s. These segments not only resonated, but were hilarious: Chicago takes exception to Jon’s rant against the Windy City’s signature deep-dish cuisine. Strife of Pie The Daily Show Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,The Daily Show on Facebook (04:25) In this exclusive, Jason Jones, Steve Buscemi, Matthew Broderick, and Michael Strahan congratulate Chicago on having edible pizza. Exclusive – New York Pizza is Magic The Daily Show Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,The Daily Show on Facebook (02:14) Fourth-generation Chicago pizza maker Marc Malnati shares a deep-dish pizza with Jon. Strife of Pie – A Pizza Truce The Daily Show Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,The Daily Show on Facebook (02:49) ~~~ Pizza segment begins at 3:59 Original Segment that started the tiff

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