The Big Picture

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• House Price Cycles in Europe
• 10 Monday PM Reads
• What Stock Prices Have Gotten Stupid?
• What Is Gold’s Next Catalyst?
• State of the Economy (November)
• 10 Monday AM Reads
• Enjoy Black Friday But Ignore NRF Surveys
• The Clever Fighter

House Price Cycles in Europe Posted: 26 Nov 2013 02:00 AM PST

10 Monday PM Reads Posted: 25 Nov 2013 02:00 PM PST My afternoon train reading: • Here’s What Business Insider Readers Like For Financial TV (Business Insider) • Buying Stocks at Record Highs: Will You Be Sorry? (WSJ) but see A Record Market Is Not All That It Seems (NY Times) • Rich make same investment errors as rest (FT.com) • The shakeup at the Minneapolis Fed is a battle for the soul of macroeconomics—again (Quartz) • Faucets at $1,000 Abound as Home Equity Spigot Opens (Bloomberg) • Super Zips — those ranking highest on income and college education (Washington Post) • An Open Letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the Valuation Bubble in Equities (Hussman Funds) but see Bubble or not, don't (necessarily) blame Fed (Washington Post) • 8 Subconscious Mistakes Our Brains Make Every Day–And How To Avoid Them (Fast Company) • Sweden Becomes First Western Nation to Reject Low-fat Diet Dogma in Favor of Low-carb High-fat Nutrition (Health Impact News) • Scott Adams: I Hope My Father Dies Soon (Dilbert) What are you reading?   China is the World’s Biggest Producer of Carbon Emissions Source: Businessweek

What Stock Prices Have Gotten Stupid? Posted: 25 Nov 2013 01:12 PM PST Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Bureau of Economic Analysis     I wanted to point you to a quick chart from Ethan Harris and his global research team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It addresses something I have referenced before — the idea that so many folks could be accurately spotting a bubble in real time with any degree of accuracy. The argument I made is admittedly squishy, not relying on quantitative data or pricing. Several of you pointed this out, to which I pleaded guilty. So I started looking for more price-driven examples that might make the same case.     Continued here

What Is Gold’s Next Catalyst? Posted: 25 Nov 2013 11:30 AM PST

State of the Economy (November) Posted: 25 Nov 2013 10:30 AM PST Source: Russell Investments

10 Monday AM Reads Posted: 25 Nov 2013 07:00 AM PST Good short week Monday: Some reads to start off your holiday shortened week: • Confusing Fear Bubbles with Stock Bubbles (Investing Caffeine) see also Short sellers have had a miserable year as the stock market has hit record highs (WSJ) • The Secret Science of Stock Symbols (New Yorker) • How the Media Blows Bubbles (Motley Fool)   Continued here

Enjoy Black Friday But Ignore NRF Surveys Posted: 25 Nov 2013 05:30 AM PST Thanksgiving is but a few days away. We celebrate by the giving of thanks for whatever bounty has come your way. It is a warm and wonderful holiday full of family and tryptophan and good cheer. Black Friday, the day after turkey day, is the official kick off of the season I like to call "Shopmas." The media will have blanket coverage of all things retail. The intense focus with be a potent combination of PR hype and wishful thinking that if history holds will be entirely wrong. The annual fabrication of seasonal retail sales data is an American holiday tradition.  Sometime over the next week, you can expect to see/read/hear the following lie: "Retail sales over the holiday weekend were surprisingly strong, up XX percent from last year. This bodes well for the upcoming holiday shopping season." If this were written accurately, it would instead read something like this: "We don't know how strong Black Friday Sales were just yet, and wont for a few days. We don't know how this holiday retail season will stack up against last year's; we certainly haven't the foggiest clue as to how the rest of the holiday season will go." This has been a pet peeve of mine for too many years to count; see the "previously" list at end.     Continued here

The Clever Fighter Posted: 25 Nov 2013 03:22 AM PST Over at Forbes, Jessica Hagy (of Indexed fame) has been illustrating the Art of War, with excellent results. This observation from Ch4 tickled me: “What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.”   Jessica Hagy via Forbes

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