The Big Picture |
- Wolfram Language
- The Fed and Hyperinflation
- What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed
- How Hollywood Has Destroyed America
- Crafting Visual Stories with Data
- Tweets of the Week. 3.22.14
- BloombergTV: QE & Market Tops
- 10 Weekend Reads
| Posted: 23 Mar 2014 03:00 AM PDT Stephen Wolfram’s Introduction to the Wolfram Language |
| Posted: 23 Mar 2014 02:00 AM PDT “It is after a trend has been reversed that the full effect of the preceding excesses is felt.” -George Soros For the last 5+ years we have seen a massive attempt by global central banks to prop up asset prices. The Federal Reserve has spearheaded the effort, increasing their balance sheet from less than $1 trillion in 2007 to over $4 trillion today. One of the main threats that QE allegedly posed was that printing trillions of dollars would lead to runaway inflation, the complete collapse of fiat currency. Now obviously that hasn't happened, in fact we've seen almost the exact opposite. Check out the chart below which graphs Google searches for "hyperinflation." You'll notice that fear is abating.
Consider that in 2013, 18 of the 21 biggest economies in the world had inflation rates of less than 2%. Who could have predicted that after 3 rounds of easing and one twist, people would be more worried about deflation than inflation? Bernanke has done a masterful job no doubt; Ray Dalio has gone as far to say that America is experiencing a "beautiful deleveraging." The fed is now of the mind that the economy can stand on its own and Janet has begun peeling the band aid off. The market has thus far welcomed the scaling back with open arms; the S&P 500 is up ~6% since December 18 when Bernanke unleashed the Taper. Asset prices have inflated to be certain, the S&P 500 is up around 115% since the Fed's first round of "Quantitative Easing", fine collectors are back collecting, and $80M diamonds are being auctioned off. A key ingredient that has been missing from this recovery is wage growth. But alas, just last week we saw average hourly earnings increased 0.4%, more than double expectations and up 2.2% y/o/y. Check out the chart below from Deutsche Bank.
In 1987 George Soros said “It is after a trend has been reversed that the full effect of the preceding excesses is felt.” Wouldn't it be something if we only start to smell inflation after QE has been reversed, after all the hyper inflationistas have crawled back into their cave? Markets have a unique ability to forecast the future, don't look now you guys, but the CRB commodity index is up 10% YTD. |
| What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed Posted: 23 Mar 2014 01:00 AM PDT |
| How Hollywood Has Destroyed America Posted: 22 Mar 2014 05:00 PM PDT |
| Crafting Visual Stories with Data Posted: 22 Mar 2014 02:00 PM PDT Data visualization has enabled us to compress data and express them visually in many interesting new ways. It is often cited that we are trying to tell stories through them. Is that really the case? How can we ensure that the audience is able to retain, recall and retell our data-driven stories. Using examples and videos learning from different storytelling mediums, I walk through why stories are important and what we can learn about how stories work from these mediums. I then detail out a framework built on the See the data | Show the Visual | Tell the Story | Engage the Audience paradigm to convert the data in to a data-visual-story.
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| Posted: 22 Mar 2014 09:00 AM PDT The Fed Spelled with an “i” Where would any FOMC meeting be without a limerick? My own contribution to the FOMC noise Markets Spot what’s wrong with this chart Everytime I see as pundit on TV screaming inflation, all I can think is Blow Hard! To buy a house, you have to work how long? Data without Theory Random Stuff And this selfie ain't bad either – I will be swinging by the photographer of this selfie this afternoon from 3-4 to talk Taper & Market Tops Newly discovered Dinosaur is called Chicken from Hell Best. Coffee cup. Ever. It goes to 11 Gorgeous wallpaper Best Bumper Sticker in JPL Parking Lot A living refutation of Descartes Lastly, from the kid who snuck to the top of the WTC tower |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2014 06:30 AM PDT What Would Our Economy Be Like Without QE? Ritholtz Wealth Management CIO Barry Ritholtz discusses what the U.S. economy might’ve looked like without the Fed’s quantitative easing. He speaks with Trish Regan and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." ~~~ We’re Not at a Market Top Ritholtz Wealth Management CIO Barry Ritholtz discusses whether or not the U.S. stock market is in a bubble. He speaks with Trish Regan and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." Source: Bloomberg, March 21 2014 |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2014 04:00 AM PDT Looks like a glorious day is on tap. Grab your tablet and a cup of coffee, and settle in to enjoy these longer form weekend reads:
Whats up for the weekend?
Mutual funds that aim to copy hedge-fund strategies are proliferating.
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