The Big Picture

Should the Fed Do Emergency Lending?
Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee: Jon Stewart
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events July 18 2014
Home Builders Cant Find Workers? Try a Pay Raise!
The Danger of Daft Deals
10 AM Friday Reads
Data Visualization: What Does a NYC Taxi’s Day Look Like?
Ferrari’s Red Reign: $1.4Millon 950 HP LaFerrari

Should the Fed Do Emergency Lending?

Posted: 19 Jul 2014 02:00 AM PDT

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee: Jon Stewart

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 04:00 PM PDT

Click for video

Source: Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events July 18 2014

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 12:30 PM PDT

Succinct Summations week ending July 18^th

Positives:

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high.
2. NAHB home builder sentiment rose to 53 vs the 50 expected.
3. Jobless claims hit a nine-week low, down to 302k.
4. NY manufacturing survey rose to 25.6, the highest level since '10.
5. Jobless claims four-week moving average hit the lowest levels since 2007
6. The Philly manufacturing index rose to 23.9, above the 16 expected.
7. UK unemployment fell to 6.5%, the lowest level since '08.

Negatives:

1. U of M consumer confidence fell to 81.3 vs estimates of 83, a 4-month low.
2. June housing starts came in at 89sk annualized v 1.02m expected, its biggest miss since January 2008
3. The S&P 500 ended its 62 day streak without a 1% move.
4. The Vix spiked 22% on Thursday, its 22^nd biggest single day gain ever.
5. Industrial production rose 0.2% m/o/m vs the estimate of 0.3%
6. MBA purchase applications 7.6% m/o/m to a 5-month low.

Thanks Batman!

Home Builders Cant Find Workers? Try a Pay Raise!

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 10:30 AM PDT

Source: Morning Market Tidbits, BofA Merrill Lynch

Wage growth for construction workers is historically low; Let’s see if we can figure out why:

First, home production has been relatively slow, which should be expected following a long period of overbuilding. That was the excuse from 2007 to 2010. Eight years after home building volume peaked, we still haven’t experienced a rebound in residential construction.

Low household formation, caused, in part, by as millennials living with their parents, and the soft economic recovery, could also be to blame.

One excuse, which may cause an arched eyebrow, is a shortage of labor. More specifically, homebuilders claim they can’t increase production because of their inability to find qualified labor.

This seems like a weak excuse. Continues here

The Danger of Daft Deals

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 09:00 AM PDT

As an update to yesterday’s critique, this video shows how takeovers and M&A often follow market prices. Collectively, they could show increased risk appetite, and perhaps signal an eventual top (wish the chart went further back than 1995).

FT: Mergers and acquisitions are booming. James Mackintosh, investment editor, analyses whether we’ve reached the stage where deals become truly daft, or whether there’s room for companies to gear up still further.

Jul 17, 2014

10 AM Friday Reads

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 06:30 AM PDT

My morning train reads (Continues here):

• Cherry Picking Gold Data (Irrelevant Investor)
• To Tilt or Not to Tilt (Rick Ferri)
• How Geopolitical Threats Affect the Stock Market (Reformed Broker)
• Latest DALBAR report underscores poor long-term performance of individual investors (The Mathematical Investor)

Continues here

Data Visualization: What Does a NYC Taxi’s Day Look Like?

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 04:00 AM PDT

This is an absolutely fascinating — hypnotic even — depiction of what the daily metrics of a New York City Taxi looks like, overlaid on top of a map. You can track passengers, distance traveled, revenue, even tips.

Bravo! I wish we could make the data from our business (Financial planning/asset management) look this compelling!

click for interactive digital

Source: nyctaxi.herokuapp.com

Hat tip fivethirtyeight.com

Ferrari’s Red Reign: $1.4Millon 950 HP LaFerrari

Posted: 18 Jul 2014 03:00 AM PDT

Fewer than 500 hybrid LaFerraris will be made. And with a price tag that starts at around $1.6 million, they’re not for everyone. WSJ Rumble Seat columnist Dan Neil discusses his test drive of the hyper car on Lunch Break

LaFerrari: The Million-Dollar Hybrid You Can’t Have
Click for video

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