The Big Picture

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• 10 Tuesday PM Reads
• Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV Trish Regan (3:00 – 4:00 pm)
• The 2% Mindset
• Our Self-Inflicted Economic Wounds
• 10 Tuesday AM Reads
• Hey, Janet (with apologies to the Beatles)
• The Seasons of the Economic Cycle
• Have We Reached the End of the Bull Market?

10 Tuesday PM Reads Posted: 05 Aug 2014 02:30 PM PDT My morning afternoon train reads: • What Will Happen When Companies Stop Buying Back So Much Stock  (Business Insider) • Building A Niche Advisory Business: It Takes 3 Years For People To Know, Like, and Trust (Kitces) • Why is the economy still weak?  Blame these five sectors (The Upshot) • Waiting to be right (Statistical Ideas) see also Hedge Funds Run by Women Outperform Those Run by Men (The Atlantic) • 22 Brilliant Insights From Richard Branson (Business Insider) • Judge’s Ruling Against Bank of America Showcases a Novel Enforcement Strategy (DealBook) • Adam Carolla Won't Let Company Drop Podcast Patent Infringement Case Against Him (Slate) • If Logos Had Honest Slogans (Twisted Sifter) • Why the Big Bang Theory Cast Deserves Even More Money Than They’re Getting (Vulture) • Thirty Things I’ve Learned (Medium) What are you reading?     Sectors Holding Back the Economy Source: The Upshot

Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV Trish Regan (3:00 – 4:00 pm) Posted: 05 Aug 2014 12:00 PM PDT   I will be guest hosting with the delightful Trish Regan on Bloomberg TV from 3:00 pm to 4:00 pm on Street Smart. We will talk corrections, Bull markets, Ukraine, and as if we have anythong to add on the subject, Ebola. Should be lots of fun — Check out their live streamer on TV.

The 2% Mindset Posted: 05 Aug 2014 11:00 AM PDT Perhaps this morning’s post on mediocrity makes this seem appropriate today:     Source: Trader Cabal

Our Self-Inflicted Economic Wounds Posted: 05 Aug 2014 08:00 AM PDT In sports, all great competitors know that they have a choice, even when confronted with daunting, insurmountable odds. They can lay down and let the larger, stronger opponent run up the score. Or they can find a way to compete, to make a game of it. A good loss is a dignified way to show what you are made of, that you have grit, attitude and brass, and you aren’t to be trifled with, even in defeat The financial crisis delivered a significant blow to the economic well-being of the U. S,, indeed, the world. There were two responses to this challenge, one of a great competitor, and one of a pathetic loser. The response to the threat of overwhelming defeat is instructive, not only for its policy implications, but for how we as individuals should respond challenges that seem hopeless. Consider the policy makers of the Federal Reserve, terrified as they were of the entire system collapsing. Regardless of your views of the impact of the Fed — and I was an early critic — one must grudgingly admire they’re determined and innovative responses. Consider not what they did but their attitude and creativity when confronted with what appeared to be an insurmountable challenge: They stepped up their game big time. If they were going to lose this battle, they were going to go down fighting. They threw away the rule book. The new liquidity facilities were certainly never envisioned 100 years ago on Jekyll Island, where the Fed was born. But that didn’t stop them. There are no mercy rules in economics. The Fed knew this, and rather than let the clock run out — a few decades of indecisive dithering probably would allow the excesses to be wrung out eventually — took a bold stand.   Continues here

10 Tuesday AM Reads Posted: 05 Aug 2014 06:45 AM PDT My morning train reads (continues here): • What Top Economists, Investors See Next Year (IBD) • Is it just a pullback, coming correction or beginning of bear market? (USA Today) but see History says don’t count on a big correction anytime soon (Marketwatch) • The Market is a Rube Goldberg Machine (Reformed Broker) • Inflation Isn’t Rising Yet, But The Fed Is Watching Closely (FiveThirtyEight)   Continues here

Hey, Janet (with apologies to the Beatles) Posted: 05 Aug 2014 04:45 AM PDT With August upon us and many readers likely at the beach, here is some levity from one side of the vocal debate on the future of Fed policy. Please hum the melody of Hey Jude as you read the lyrics. With thanks and credit to the Beatles.   "Hey Janet" Hey Janet, don't make it bad Take easy money and make it less so Remember the last time rates stayed too low for too long Then you can start to make it better Hey Janet, don't be afraid The bed is made but please don't wait The minute that you raise rates will hurt but Then you begin to make it better And anytime you feel the pain, hey Janet, don't refrain Don't carry the world upon your shoulders For well you know that it's a fool who plays it cool By making his/her world a little colder Nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah Hey Janet, don't let me down Lower unemployment and higher inflation are here Remember the last time rates stayed too low for too long Then you can start to make it better So let it out and let it in, hey Janet, begin You're waiting for someone to perform with And don't you know that it's just you? Hey Janet, you'll do The movement you need is on your shoulder Nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah Hey Janet, don't make it bad Take easy money and make it less so Remember the past voracious demand for yield Then you'll begin to make it BETTER, BETTER, BETTER, BETTER, BETTER, BETTER… OHHHHHHHHHHHH! NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH, Hey Janet     Peter Boockvar Managing Director Chief Market Analyst The Lindsey Group LLC Direct: 973-251-2063 www.thelindseygroup.com

The Seasons of the Economic Cycle Posted: 05 Aug 2014 03:00 AM PDT Source: The Reformed Broker

Have We Reached the End of the Bull Market? Posted: 05 Aug 2014 02:30 AM PDT Source: Bloomberg, Aug. 1 2014 Strategas Research Partners Managing Director Christopher Verrone and Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan Krueger discuss the markets on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

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