The Big Picture

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• Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?
• Last Few Slots Left: NYC Open House (December 8-12)
• Sleep Deprivation & Your Brain
• A $325 Million Deal Still Needs a Plan
• 10 Sunday Reads
• Bill Nye: Evolution Deniers = Climate Change Deniers

Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets? Posted: 24 Nov 2014 02:00 AM PST

Last Few Slots Left: NYC Open House (December 8-12) Posted: 23 Nov 2014 03:00 PM PST We just had a trip to Washington D.C. Coming up in the new year will be visits to Seattle, Austin, and San Francisco, But a number of you suggested New York City as our next place for a meet and greet, and so that is what we decided to do. We have scheduled the week of December 8th for our open house. We will be meeting with prospective clients for both RWM and Liftoff, as well as having a meetup or two. We often talk about markets and the economy, cognitive biases and investor behavior. But to give you a better sense of how we approach our practice, give Josh’s fantastic post on Why We Educate Our Clients a thorough read. It is simply an outstanding explanatory of what we do and why. For those of you want to learn a bit more about our investing philosophy and approach to working with clients, it is an opportunity see if what we do fits your needs. Its always nice to have an in depth, personal conversation about such things in person. We are coming up on the end of the year, and now is as good a time of year as any to review where you are, and figure out where you want to be. ~~~ We still have a few slots left for one-on-ones and other events. If you are interested in discussing your personal circumstances, meeting with us, or simply hearing our (fascinating and enlightening) views, give us a shout. Send email to Info-at-RitholtzWealth-dot-com, with the subject “NYC Open House.” Or call 212-455-9122 and ask for Erika.

Sleep Deprivation & Your Brain Posted: 23 Nov 2014 01:30 PM PST Via Mic:    click for ginormous graphic   Source & resources: The Journal of Neuroscience, International Scholarly Research Notes, Experimental Brain Research, Psychological Bulletin, UC Berkeley Walker Sleep Lab, PNAS, International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health, CDC, The Journal of Neuroscience, SLEEP, PLOS one, Psychological Science, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, Daytime Sleepiness Affects Prefrontal Regulation of Food Intake

A $325 Million Deal Still Needs a Plan Posted: 23 Nov 2014 07:00 AM PST >   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at Giancarlo Stanton’s enormous a 13-year, $325 million contract with the Miami Marlins. The print version had the full headline A $325 million deal still needs a plan, while the online version was Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what?. Here’s an excerpt from the column: "Professional athletes have been going bankrupt with alarming regularity for decades. . . . Shortly after they retire, nearly four of five NFL players are bankrupt or under financial stress, according to Sports Illustrated. . . . It's marginally better in the National Basketball Association, where after retirement nearly two of three players are broke within five years." To avoid that fate, Stanton need only do a few things right and avoid the common errors. Before we get to that, let's drill into the specifics of his contract. That $10 million a year we discussed was an average across the 13 years. In actuality, the contract is "backloaded" — meaning, the richest payouts are in the latter years. According to ESPN, "Stanton's salaries over those first three seasons will be "only" $6.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017." So in actuality, Stanton will likely take home about $2.2 million, $3.1 million and $4.9 million over the next three seasons. Objectively, that is still a lot of income, but it sure is a lot less than the $325 million the headlines are trumpeting. The differences between the headline and take home number is what gets so many young athletes in a fix.” The rest of the column follows with some common sense advice for athletes. I like the table the Post used in the dead tree version of the paper: > click for ginormous version of print edition     Source: Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, November 23, 2015 http://wapo.st/1td6w2u

10 Sunday Reads Posted: 23 Nov 2014 05:00 AM PST Pour some coffee and settle in for some Sunday morning reads: • Cheap-Oil Era Tilts Geopolitical Power to U.S. (Bloomberg) see also Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable (Bloomberg) • How the Stock Market Performs Before and After Big Drops and Big Rallies (Crossing Wall Street) • So You Think You're a Risk-Taker? (WSJ) • Can the stock market save millennials? (Guardian) • Predicting Apple’s next big move (Marketplace) see also Inside Apple’€™s Broken Sapphire Factory (WSJ) • Cash Is for Losers! (Businessweek) • Is China Building a Mortgage Bomb? (Bloomberg View) • Benghazi Coverup Claims Rejected in House Investigation (Bloomberg) see also G.O.P.-Led Benghazi Panel Bolsters Administration (NYT) • The case for open borders (Vox) • The Best Jokes Are Dangerous, An Interview with Kurt Vonnegut, Part One. (McSweeney’s) What’s for brunch?   Oil Boom Returns to Gulf After Deepwater Horizon Disaster  Source: WSJ

Bill Nye: Evolution Deniers = Climate Change Deniers Posted: 23 Nov 2014 04:00 AM PST Planetary Society CEO Bill Nye discusses his book "Undeniable: Evolution and the Science of Creation" on "Bloomberg Surveillance." Bill Nye: Evolution Deniers Also Deny Climate Change Source: Bloomberg, Nov. 21 2014 ~~~ Planetary Society CEO Bill Nye discusses climate change and NASA space funding Bill Nye Answers Your Science, Climate Change Questions ~~~ Bill Nye, chief executive officer at Planetary Society, talks about the debate over climate change and the role of the fossil fuel industry in casting doubt on science. Why Isn’t U.S. World Leader in Climate Change? ~~~ Planetary Society CEO Bill Nye and "Bloomberg Surveillance" Host Tom Keene race to tie their bow ties Watch Bill Nye Defeat Tom Keene at Tying a Bow Tie

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