The Big Picture

10 Monday PM Reads
Masters in Business: Robert Shiller Interview
Fed Policy and Stock Outlook
10 Monday AM Reads
Growth First. Then, these other things.

Posted: 24 Nov 2014 02:30 PM PST

My afternoon train reads:

• States' Finances Are Now on Solid Ground: With a few prominent exceptions, states are healthier than they've been in years. Good news for municipal-bond investors. (Barron’s)
• The Mistakes We Make—and Why We Make Them (WSJ)
• What to do with PIMCO Total Return in your 401(k) (The Oregonian)
• The Smart Way to Think About Wild Markets (The Motley Fool)
• The curse of Black Friday sales (NY Post)
• How To Win Any Argument About the Markets (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• New Abnormal Means Relying on Central Banks for Growth (Bloomberg)
• The frustrating dichotomy of Silicon Valley (Daily Dot)
• Differentiation and Value Capture in the Internet Age (Stratechery)
• Why Google and Uber Are Playing Badly in Europe (The Fiscal Times)

What are you reading?

Boomers, Millennials and Interest Rates: A Muni Investor's Perspective

Source: Black Rock Blog

Masters in Business: Robert Shiller Interview

Posted: 24 Nov 2014 11:00 AM PST

In the latest "Masters in Business" podcast, I speak with Robert Shiller, Stirling Professor of Economics at Yale University and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics.

Shiller makes a key point about finance: "We really do not know the future. Since we don't, we are talking finance and insurance. They are really about an uncertain future, sharing your risks, hedging your risks. People forget that's a core element. It is not about beating the market necessarily; it’s about managing risks in such a way that we can be a productive society and we can achieve our goals."

He also tells a number of fascinating anecdotes — about how he met Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel while they were both undergraduates at MIT, how the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes came about, and how the phrase "irrational exuberance" made it into a well-known 1996 speech by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

You can download the podcast here, stream it on Soundcloud or download it on iTunes. (All of the earlier podcasts are now on Apple iTunes).

Next week, we speak with Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Fed Policy and Stock Outlook

Posted: 24 Nov 2014 08:30 AM PST

Fascinating stuff here:

The Easy Money’s Been Made: Fed Policy and Stock Outlook

Source: Bloomberg Chart of the Day

10 Monday AM Reads

Posted: 24 Nov 2014 04:30 AM PST

Welcome back to a holiday shortened week, where I am “pre-dieting” in anticipation of Turkey Day. Here are our low-calorie morning train reads:

• Sign of Health for Stocks: Weak 2015 Forecasts (WSJ)
• Swedroe: Why Alpha's Getting More Elusive (ETF) see also For Some Stock Pickers, Worst Showing in 10 Years (MoneyBeat)
• Why We Educate Our Clients (Reformed Broker)
• Former Morgan Stanley Manager Pens 'Culture Treatise' (AdvisorHub)
• Why Countries Wage Currency Wars (Bloomberg View)