The Big Picture

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• The Grand Tour of Asia
• Weekly Eurozone Watch – Euro(con)fusion
• Shovels and Rope: Birmingham
• Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (March 22)
• An Internet Minute
• Looking at Wages Relative to GDP
• 10 Friday AM Reads
• The Fine Art of Doing Nothing
• India Startup Report

The Grand Tour of Asia Posted: 23 Mar 2013 02:00 AM PDT Click to virtual experience Source: Conde Nast Traveler

Weekly Eurozone Watch – Euro(con)fusion Posted: 23 Mar 2013 01:00 AM PDT     Key Data Points German 10-year Bund 8 bps lower; France 3 bps wider to the Bund; Belgium 5 bps wider; Ireland 15 bps wider; Italy unchanged; Spain 2 bps wider; Portugal 14 bp wider; Greece 114 bps wider; Large Eurozone banks weekly change,  -0.67 to -8.64 percent; Euro$ down,  -0.67 percent. Comments Cyprus continues to work on a set of measures acceptable to the EU that will allow the opening of its banks on Tuesday.  Capital controls are widely anticipated.   Uncertainty remains high – Guardian President Giorgio Napolitano asked center-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani on Friday to assess whether he can win enough support in Italy's divided parliament to form a government and end the political deadlock left by elections last month. – Reuters The flash PMI data suggest that the Eurozone  business environment deteriorated at a quickening rate in March…France saw the steepest downturn in business activity since March 2009…Germany showed worrying signs of growth fading in March. -Markit   ************************************************************************************* There will be painful aspects but the country must be saved. - Nicos Anastasiades, President of Cyprus *************************************************************************************   (click here if charts are not observable)

Shovels and Rope: Birmingham Posted: 22 Mar 2013 03:30 PM PDT Joe writes: If you like Alabama Shakes (which from reading your blog I’m aware you do), you should check out Shovels and Rope. Just caught them last night in DC and they were amazeballs. A bit country twangy but it works.  “Birmingham” is a killer. Amazeballs. indeed. Good call, Joe:     Published on Feb 22, 2013 “Birmingham” is the first single from O’ Be Joyful, the debut album from Shovels & Rope. Produced by The Moving Picture Boys, this video was shot in the band’s home city of Charleston, SC.

Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (March 22) Posted: 22 Mar 2013 12:00 PM PDT Succinct Summation of events for the week ending March 22: Positives: 1) FOMC statement indicates fed continues its $85B pace of bond purchases 2) Single family housing starts were the highest since July 2008; median home price rose 11.6% year over year to $173,600. 3) Existing home sales grew to 4.98 million (annualized) last month, highest level in 3 years 4) Jobless claims come in at 336k, post-recession low in the 4 week moving average (339.8k). 5) March China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI 51.7 v 50.8 expected (readings over 50 indicate expansion). 6) Markit's March flash PMI, the index of nationwide manufacturing rose to 54.9 from 54.3 in 7) February UK jobless claims change for February come in at -1.5k, prior -12.5k. 8) Nike makes new all-time highs. Negatives: 1) S&P 500 is down for the week — first time in 4 weeks 2) Cyprus plans to confiscate up to 9.9% of bank deposits in an effort to stay solvent. 3) AAII bullish sentiment fell from 45.42% down to 38.9%. 4) Fedex dropping as much as 10.5% of its market cap since reporting a big miss on Wednesday. 5) UK GDP forecasts lowered to +1.8% in 2014 vs previous estimate of 2% 6) Avg 30 yr mortgage rate rose to 3.82% — highest since Aug;  Refi apps fell 8% 7) NAHB homebuilder confidence fell to 44 v expectations of 47. 8) Database giant Oracle loses 9.7% ugly after earnings report — biggest drop since December 2011 9) German PMI manufacturing declined to 48.9 in March, from a 50.3 reading in February; Euro-area services and manufacturing output also fell to 46.5 from 47.9 in February. 10) FHFA house price index for January came in at 0.6%, below expectations of 0.7%; Existing home sales grew 0.8% rise vs expectations of 1.6%. 11) 57% of U.S. workers surveyed reported less than $25k in total household savings and investments.

An Internet Minute Posted: 22 Mar 2013 10:30 AM PDT What happens in an Internet minute? Nice graphic from Intel, which states “The number of networked devices is equal to the global population. By 2015, the number of networked devices will be twice the global population.”   click for larger graphic Source: Intel

Looking at Wages Relative to GDP Posted: 22 Mar 2013 08:45 AM PDT click for larger graphics Source: Visualizing Economics   Catherine Mulbrandon covers all sorts of cool data over at Visualizing Economics (Check out her wicked cool book of economic visualizations on income here). I find the big picture view of employment and wages fascinating, looking at the question, What Happened to Wages?  As the charts above show long-term growth in wages in the US. has been a steady climber, with big spurts in worker productivity (industrial revolution, technology). As the charts show, however, over the last 40 years, long-term growth has slowed significantly.

10 Friday AM Reads Posted: 22 Mar 2013 07:00 AM PDT My morning reads: • How to Fix the Cyprus Bank Disaster in 3 Steps (The Atlantic) • Hong Kong Homes Face 20% Price Drop as Banks Raise Rates (Bloomberg) see also Asian Stocks Head for Largest Weekly Drop Since August (Bloomberg) • Bob McTeer: No, The Fed Has Not Been Printing Boatloads of Money (NCPA) • 10 Rules For Disruptors In The Financial Services Industry (Forbes) see also Why You Should Consider Taking Financial Advice From a Computer (Bloomberg) • Masked by Gibberish, the Risks Run Amok (NYT) see also Financial Reform Is Being Dismantled. (New Republic) • When do we call it a solvency crisis? (Credit Writedowns) • Spending Isn’t the Problem, Austerity Is (US News) see also Why Global Economies Face an Age of Deflation (Bloomberg) • Obama’s Speech In Israel: 5 Excerpts You Should Read (NPR) • Google’s Google problem (The Economist) see also A Sophisticated Instagram Alternative (NYT) • Why the Rich Don’t Give to Charity (The Atlantic) What are you reading?   Peril for Euro Zone Hangs on Small Sum Source: WSJ

The Fine Art of Doing Nothing Posted: 22 Mar 2013 05:30 AM PDT   Don’t just do something, sit there!   I love that purposefully juxtaposed Yogi Berra-ism. I have been thinking about nothing on this lovely Friday morning. More precisely, why doing nothing — or at least much less — is better for your long term investing outcomes than doing something, also known as more. Don’t. Don’t do something, anything, just for the sake of it. If you are going to do something, you better have a damned good reason for it. Doing something feels good. Doing something creates the illusion of control. Doing something responds to the angst we feel when we are unhappy with current circumstances. Doing something is why people dump all of their stock at market bottoms; please-just-make-the-pain-stop-sell it-I-don’t-care-if-this-is-the-low was heard quite often in February and March 2009. I have been thinking about nothing recently, mostly in the context of time frames (a post I did a few weeks ago, expanded into a full column for Sunday). Humans exist in the here and now, at the intersection of past and future. The present is all they really know from experience. Contextualizing the long game is not their forte. What 24/7 media fills their minds with is so much meaningless detritus, so many useless options — its why they often forget that nothing itself is a viable choice. Indeed, nothing is often the best choice available. Nothing is the enemy of the financial industry. Doing nothing does not generate any business. You cannot sell a front load mutual fund, an annuity, or any sort of private placement when people do nothing. Nothing generates no fees, commissions, costs or taxes. Nothing doen’t pay the rent. Nothing is the costly opponent of salespeople everywhere. They have come up with all manner of clever phrases to taint the art of doing nothing. “Paralysis by Analysis” is my favorite example. The investment industry hates nothing. Just about everything the financial sector does or says or markets or advertises is designed to get you to do something — anything! And right now, too: Track your portfolio tick by tick! Get instant updates the second news breaks! Free trading for ETFs! Real time alerts! E) None of the above. When confronted with a problem, many people feel obligated to do something, anything — even the wrong thing. “Well, at least you tried” they say, when what they really meant was “You did not think this through or fully consider the options and outcomes to your decision making. You failed.” Even Pop culture references this, obliquely. Yoda was philosophical about nothing as an option: “Do. Or do not. There is no try.” Hence, Star Wars recognized that nothing was a viable option. No, not Seinfeld — it was never a show, as so many people have mischaracterized it,  about nothing. It was actually a show about the minutia of life. Nothing is underrated. Sometimes, nothing is better than something.   What are you doing when you should be doing nothing?

India Startup Report Posted: 22 Mar 2013 03:30 AM PDT Back in 2011, we showed The China Startup Report — a crash course by Bowei Gai. He is now traveling to 29 countries to analyze the market trends, opportunities and financial resources available to entrepreneurs in each ecosystem.     India Startup Report from World Startup Report

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