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Friday, November 4, 2011

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


The MF Global Story: More Bizarre by the minute

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 10:30 PM PDT

Bruce Kastings worked on Wall Street for twenty-five years, trading Fed Funds, FX options, long dated swaps, and currencies for Credit Suisse, Irving Trust, Citi. In 1985 he joined Drexel, worked with Mike Milken building investment activity in third world debt, making markets in busted Brazilian and Mexican debt. (Think trading Greek bonds today). After Drexel, he started a private hedge fund. He adds “Long ago I got a college degree in economics. My graduate school was on the curb at Wall and Broad.”

He began blogging three years ago. There is never a shortage of things to write about regarding the global capital markets these days.

~~~~

The MF Global story gets more bizarre by the minute. At this point one has to ask if it could become a systemic problem. At first, I did not think so. I'm rethinking that. There is no definitive information as of yet. The CFTC is suggesting that the missing client money is $633mm. It might be larger than that (Zero Hedge Link).

Some thoughts:

I was one of many who tried to stave off the bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1989. Skadden Arps, (the same law firm who is advising MF today) was involved in the last month as the chess game played out. They were advisers. Their clear advice was to NOT commingle  custody accounts. To commingle funds is potential jail time for any involved. Drexel went down. But client money/assets were returned.

Of course Corzine and all the other seniors at MF knew this. Skadden was giving them the same advice as they gave to DBL 20 years ago. So how can it be that three days after a chapter filing there appears to be a very big hole?

This happened with another big future's house back in 2005. That was Refco. In that case there were significant client account losses. Of historical interest:

-Phil Bennet, the boss at Refco, went to jail for 12 years.


-Man Group bought what was left of Refco (they were good futures brokers).


-Man became MF Global. Rinse and repeat.

The history is relevant as it is more evidence that Corzine and MF management HAD to know that commingling was the ultimate no-no. It was part of their history.

My guess is that the missing cash was grabbed by one (or more) of the big players in the global bond market. MF did not sign off on the cash grab. The banks moved on them and their customer accounts. MF had no say in the matter.

Given Corzine's relationship with Goldman I put them high on the list of probable plug pulling bankers. Nomura was a place to go to finance AAA sovereign positions. One of the French or German banks could have been the warehouse for MF's sovereign exposure. It wouldn't surprise me if any one of them pulled the plug on the leveraged bets.

It should be noted that all of the big players talk when they are moving on collateral and closing relationships with financial firms.When the SHTF, they act as one.

MF has said that the funding for the sovereign exposure was "locked up" to maturity. That's complete bullshit. I can tell you from first hand knowledge. When Wall Street is financing positions they always have a MAC (Material Adverse Change) provision that allows them to call the financing. If the debt is not immediately repaid it produces an event of default. That creates a cross default to all other asset positions. When they smell trouble they move first and ask questions later. They always lock up cash.

If you think this sounds far fetched consider what happened at Refco:

Refco's forex brokerage arm, Refco FX, LLC, was holding over 17,000 retail customer brokerage accounts at the time that Refco declared bankruptcy shortly thereafter. In the bankruptcy proceedings, Bank of America and other large creditors managed to convince the bankruptcy court that Refco's customers were actually unsecured creditors because of Refco's failure to segregate its customer accounts from their own general funds, despite telling customers that it had done so.

Most of the broker's 17,000 customers eventually received little or no compensation.

This is not supposed to happen. FINRA is the watchdog for this. Their words on how "safe" customer accounts are with registered brokers.

In virtually all cases, when a brokerage firm ceases to operate, customer assets are safe and typically are transferred in an orderly fashion to another registered brokerage firm. Even if a firm fails, its customers’ assets will be safe.
So much for FINRA.

Where could this go?

I think some drop in confidence by market investors in secondary firms has to happen. Money has to leave those players. With that, will go the flow trading that comes with the accounts. Liquidity across all markets (especially futures) will be affected.

If we go down this road (we will if MF/the Banks actually used/seized clients money) the short-term consequence will be another big ramp up in volatility. Most assets classes will suffer in that environment.

Leveraging of “liquid” assets is a critical component of the global system. The repo markets are already under serious attack. The MF story could take us to a new level.

The absolute craziest outcome would be that we learn that it was Goldman who closed the books and seized the cash last Friday (someone did). It would be even crazier if this leads to a problem that gets out of hand. There's a decent chance that it plays out along these lines.

Posted by Bruce Krasting at 4:34 PM

Paul Volcker: Financial Reform: Unfinished Business

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 08:21 PM PDT

Financial Reform: Unfinished Business
November 24, 2011
Paul Volcker

~~~

It should be clear that among the causes of the recent financial crisis was an unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies, and the techniques of modern finance. That faith was stoked in part by the huge financial rewards that enabled the extremes of borrowing, the economic imbalances, and the pretenses and assurances of the credit-rating agencies to persist so long. A relaxed approach by regulators and legislators reflected the new financial zeitgeist.

All the seeming mathematical precision that was brought to investment, all the complicated new products, including the explosion of derivatives, that were intended to diffuse and minimize risk, did not work as had been claimed. Instead, the vaunted efficiency helped justify an explosion of weak credit and an emphasis on trading along with exceedingly large compensation for traders.

If those remarks sound critical—and they are meant to inspire caution—let me also emphasize that the breakdown in financial markets and the "Great Recession" since 2007 are also the culmination of years of growing, and ultimately unsustainable, imbalances between and within national economies. These are matters of failures of national economic policy and the absence of a disciplined international monetary system.

Take the most familiar and egregious case. The huge surpluses China has accumulated from its external trade reflect the view of the Chinese government that it is desirable to have rapidly growing export industries that support employment growth. China was willing to build up trillions of short-term dollar assets, mainly US securities paying low interest rates—and thus kept the process going. Conversely, the United States happily utilized that inflow of low-interest dollars from China to sustain heavy consumer spending—much of it on Chinese products—a growing budget deficit, and eventually an enormous housing bubble.

Or consider the current European crisis. At its roots are years of growing imbalances within the countries of the eurozone. As in other parts of the world, the ability to borrow at low rates bridged for a while the proclivities of some countries to spend and import beyond their means, while other countries saved and invested, tending to reinforce an underlying gap in productivity between national economies.

Those were fundamentally matters of public policy—the result of decisions on taxing, spending, and exchange rates; they were not a reflection of the characteristics of the financial market. But neither can we ignore the fact that financial practices helped sustain such imbalances. In the end, the build-up in leverage, the failure of credit discipline, and the opaqueness of new kinds of securities and derivatives such as credit default swaps helped facilitate, to a truly dangerous extent, accommodation to the underlying imbalances and to the eventual bubbles.

All these developments derive in some part from the complexity implicit in the growth of the so-called shadow banking system—the nondepository banks, hedge funds, insurers, money market funds, and other largely unregulated entities that grew enormously in size after 2000—a system that by June 2008 was roughly the size of the traditional banking system. In the end, the consequence was to intensify the financial crisis and to severely wound the real-world economy. Even today, four years after the first intimations of the subprime mortgage debacle, high indebtedness and leverage, impaired banking capital, and a pervasive loss of confidence in a number of major financial institutions constrict an easy flow of credit to smaller businesses, potential home buyers, and consumers alike.

Where do we stand?

The first international response has been to review the capital standards required of commercial banks. How much capital should such banks be required to retain relative to their loans? That's an old question. Shortly after I left office as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1987, the Basel I agreement was completed, setting out so-called risk-based capital standards for banks to be adopted by all financially important countries. That agreement was, indeed, a success. Standards for maintaining adequate capital were raised and a degree of international consistency achieved. Those goals remain critically important, and as illustrated by the Basel agreement, capital standards for banking can be agreed on and enforced by national regulators, such as central banks, rather than await legislation in individual countries.

Review of those capital standards for banks—now with the further consideration of standards for the liquidity they should maintain—is widely perceived as a central element in the current reform effort. Some would contend it is the central element. I do not want to discount the importance of such work. We do need, however, to be conscious of the practical difficulties and limitations of setting capital and liquidity requirements. Those problems have long been evident in the effort to enforce the standards established by the earlier Basel agreements. Not surprisingly, they reappear in the ongoing negotiations to strengthen those standards. We see differences in national perceptions, reinforced by intense lobbying by affected institutions, whether central banks, commercial banks, or investment banks. In establishing standards for banks the tendency may be to bend toward a least common denominator, weakening the standards and allowing them to be unevenly applied. Resisting such pressures must be a priority for regulators.

There is the larger conceptual and unsettled question of the extent to which such standards should be applied to the "shadow" banking system I have referred to. When we talk of "systemically important" shadow banks and say they should be regulated, what precisely do we mean? How will their failures affect the entire financial system? These are matters for legislation, complicated further by the need for enough international consistency to resist "forum shopping"—the transfer of operations to less well regulated countries.

The need for regulators and supervisors to take account of new institutions and markets has spawned the new phrase "macro-prudential"—to me cumbersome nomenclature. Just what it implies about the actual practice of regulation is obscure. "Systemic surveillance" or "broad market oversight" seems to convey better what is necessary and desirable. Someone, some agency, some group, should be charged with taking a holistic view toward assessing financial markets and institutions, with particular attention to the interconnections among them, whether domestic or international. Potentially dangerous inconsistencies and instabilities—the growth of the housing bubble based partly on securitized subprime mortgages would be a good example—need to be recognized and assessed. Whether that assessment need carry with it specific regulatory responsibilities and enforcement authority (for instance, setting and enforcing capital standards for "nonbanks" such as hedge funds) will likely vary from country to country. But there can't be much doubt that success will require international consultation, exchanges of information, and in some areas coordinated action.

These days, finance flows far more freely across national borders than trade. Technology tightly links the operations of big banks and markets. Hedge funds and equity funds, securitized products—even equity markets—are more and more international by nature. Only the most draconian and destructive regulatory measures could stop this interconnectedness.

Today in Europe we see all those realities play out in real time in extreme form. Among nations dedicated to a common market and a common currency, the tensions are great. The plain implication, to me, is not to retreat from an integrated eurozone. Right now it is a question of building protection for European banks and countries that are at risk and faced with financial breakdown. But ultimately what is needed is a new institutional structure that will require greater consistency in banking and financial standards and, more broadly, will also require stronger discipline in fiscal and economic policies.

There is no compulsion to carry that process of integration so far in the world more generally. The financial breakdown and the resulting severe impact on economic activity do, however, point to the need for international coordination beyond the accepted need for common capital standards.

Among the more obvious areas is agreement on international accounting standards. The groundwork has been well advanced for over a decade. Full success, however, still awaits a definitive decision on those standards by the SEC in the United States. I would add to that a more elusive but equally important consideration: auditors who are truly independent and approach their responsibilities with a certain skepticism. American authorities are now considering, among other means to that end, a requirement that auditors of corporate accounts regularly be changed.

Given the weaknesses and conflicts exposed by the crisis, the role and structure of credit-rating agencies also need further review. So far, no fully satisfactory approach has been set out, but surely this is a matter for international consideration. Current efforts directed toward reform within the major firms such as Moody's and Standard & Poor's should help, but other approaches need emphasis. Reliance on the formal ratings issued by an oligopoly of the dominant credit-rating agencies could be reduced by greater, perhaps more focused, competition from other agencies. It would also help to establish standards for competent "in-house" determinations of credit standards, a matter touched upon by the Dodd–Frank legislation passed in July 2010.

More immediately important, and it seems to me more amenable to structural change, is the role of money market mutual funds (MMMFs) in the United States. By grace of an accounting convention, those funds are permitted to meet requests for withdrawals upon demand at a fixed dollar price so long as the market valuation of fund assets remains within a specified limit around the one dollar "par" (in the vernacular "the buck"). Started decades ago, money market funds today have trillions of dollars heavily invested in short-term commercial paper, bank deposits, and recently, and notably, European banks.

Free of capital constraints, official reserve requirements, and charges for deposit insurance, these MMMFs are truly hidden in the shadows of banking markets. The result is to divert what amounts to demand deposits from the regulated banking system. While generally conservatively managed, these funds are, in troubled times, demonstrably vulnerable to disturbing runs, as was highlighted in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy after one large fund had to suspend payments. The sudden impact of that suspension on the availability of business credit in the midst of the broader financial crisis compelled the Treasury and Federal Reserve to provide hundreds of billions of dollars by resorting to highly unorthodox emergency funds to maintain the functioning of markets.

Recently, in an effort to maintain some earnings, many of those funds invested heavily in European banks. Now, with no official protection of liquidity, they are actively withdrawing those funds, adding to the strains on European banking stability.

The time has clearly come to harness money market mutual funds in a manner that recognizes both their structural importance in diverting funds from regulated banks and their destabilizing potential. If indeed they wish to continue to provide, on so large a scale, a service that mimics commercial bank demand deposits, then strong capital requirements, government insurance protection, and stronger official surveillance of their investment practices are called for. Simpler and appropriately, they should be treated as ordinary mutual funds, with redemption value reflecting day-by-day market price fluctuations.

"Too Big to Fail"—The Key Issue in Structural Reform

volcker_2-112411.jpgRafael Valls Gallery, London/Bridgeman Art Library

Gabriel-Germain Joncherie: Cashier Counter with Coins, 1829

The greatest structural challenge facing the financial system is how to deal with the widespread impression—many would say conviction—that important institutions, such as the large international banks, are deemed "too large" or "too interconnected" to fail. During the crisis, creditors—and to some extent stockholders—were in fact saved by injection of government capital and liquidity amounting to trillions of dollars, reinforcing the prevailing attitudes.

Few will argue that the support was unwarranted in view of the severity of the crisis and the danger of financial collapse in response to contagious fears, with the implication that such a collapse would impose intolerable pressures on the economy. But there are real, behavioral consequences of the rescue effort that was made. The expectation that taxpayers will help absorb potential losses can only reassure creditors that risks will be minimized and help induce risk-taking on the assumption that losses will be repaid out of public funds—with the potential gains all private. Understandably the body politic feels aggrieved and wants serious reforms.

The issue is not new. The circumstance in which occasional government rescues can be justified has long been debated. What cannot be in question is that the prevailing uncertainties demand an answer. And that answer must entail three elements:

First, the risk of failure of "large, interconnected firms" must be reduced, whether by reducing their size, curtailing their interconnections, or limiting their activities.

Second, ways and means must be found to manage a prompt and orderly process for resolving the outstanding debt and other problems of firms that fail (or are on the brink of failure), minimizing the potential impact on markets and the economy without extensive official support.

Third, key elements in the approach toward the failures of banks and other financial institutions need to be broadly consistent among the major financial centers both here and abroad, where the failing institutions have critical operations.

Plainly, all these elements will require structural changes embodied in legislation. Various approaches are possible. Each is difficult intellectually, politically, and in practice, but progress in these areas is the key to effective and lasting financial reform.

I think it is fair to say that in passing the Dodd–Frank legislation, the United States has taken an important step in the needed direction. Some elements of the new law remain controversial, and the effectiveness of some of the most important elements will still be subject to administrative rules yet to be written. Most importantly, a truly convincing approach to deal with the "moral hazard" posed by official rescue efforts—the possibility that knowledge of a government backstop against failure will create an incentive for financial firms to take greater risks—is critically dependent on complementary action by other countries.

Concerning the first element I have listed, dealing with financial institutions that are "too big to fail," the US approach in the Dodd–Frank bill sets out limited but important reforms. First, the size of the major financial institutions (except for "organic" growth) will be constrained by a cap on assets as a percent of the US GDP. That cap is slightly higher than the existing size of the largest institutions, and is justified as much by the need to limit further concentration as by the need for prudential measures in case of failure.

The newly enacted prohibitions on proprietary trading by banks and the strong limits on their sponsorship of hedge and equity funds should be much more significant. It is true that the impact of the Dodd–Frank bill on the sheer size of the largest US commercial banking organizations and the activities of foreign banks in the United States may be limited. But the new restrictions on trading are an important step in dealing with excessive risk, conflicts of interest, and, potentially, compensation practices as well. The recent large trading losses by a large Swiss bank illustrate the case for restrictions on proprietary trading by banks and for limiting participation by American institutions in sponsoring private pools of capital. At its root, the case for restriction on trading is a matter of the culture of banking institutions.

The justification for official support and protection of commercial banks is to maintain a flow of credit to businesses and individuals and to provide a stable, efficient system by which payments can be made. Those are both matters entailed in continuing customer relations, and they necessarily imply an element of fiduciary responsibility—i.e., an assurance to customers that they can trust the financial institution to protect their assets—on the part of the bank. These are the essential banking functions. It is hard—I think impossible—within a single institution to impose on those central bank functions a system of highly rewarded—very highly rewarded—impersonal trading that is not protective of client relationships. In any event, it is surely inappropriate that those trading activities be carried out by institutions benefiting from taxpayer support, current or potential.

Similar considerations bear upon the importance of requiring that trades in derivatives, which now are largely unregulated, ordinarily be cleared and settled through strong clearinghouses. The purpose of such requirements in the Dodd–Frank bill is to encourage simplicity, standardization, and better assurance of timely payment, in an area that has been rapidly growing and that is fragmented, unnecessarily complex, opaque, and, as events have shown, risk-prone.

There is, of course, an important legitimate role for derivatives and for proprietary trading. The question is whether those activities have been extended well beyond their economic utility, driven by what one astute observer has expressed as "trying to extract pennies from a roller coaster."

One very large part of American capital markets—indeed the dominant part—is the market for residential mortgages. The financial breakdown was directly related to, and abetted by, lax, government-tolerated underwriting standards for those mortgages. The origination and huge volume of so-called "subprime" mortgages, typically securitized in large CMOs and CDOs (collateralized mortgage and debt obligations), supported the unsustainable rise in prices of homes and the housing bubble. So far the calls for large-scale structural change have not resulted in legislation, but the need for reform and the direction of change is clear.

The mortgage market in the United States has long been supported by a few government agencies, and particularly by government-sponsored but privately owned organizations. Collectively, these so-called government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)—Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Home Loan Banks—have provided an efficient secondary market for mortgages, but in the process they have issued or guaranteed obligations rivaling the amount of publicly held Treasury securities.

The interest rates on those GSE securities have been close to those on Treasury bonds because it has been broadly assumed, quite accurately as it has turned out, that in case of difficulty the creditors would be directly or indirectly paid by the government (i.e., the taxpayer). The effect has been to permit high leverage of the GSEs—allowing large-scale borrowing against the mortgages—and to provide an indirect subsidy to the mortgage market, benefiting the GSE stockholders as well as home buyers. In the 2008 crisis, the government, confirming market expectations, took control of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, assuring their continued operation despite large losses. The "moral hazard" implicitly protecting creditors of stockholding GSEs has thus been confirmed.

Today, the residential mortgage market is almost completely dependent on government support. It will be a matter of years before a healthy, truly private market can be developed, with appropriate regulatory and supervisory standards. But it is important that planning proceed now on the assumption that the inherently ambiguous role of the GSEs be ended. To the extent that a political judgment is made that particular circumstances require government support of the mortgage market, that support should be provided openly by a full-fledged government agency.

The Need for International Consensus

We cannot, and should not, contemplate a financial world so constrained by capital requirements and regulation that all failures are avoided and innovation and risk-taking are lost. As I noted earlier, we need to develop arrangements to deal with such failures that do occur in a manner that will minimize the risks to market continuity and the possibility of contagion.

Success will be dependent on complementary approaches in major markets—New York, London, continental European centers, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and before long other growing Asian markets. In essence, when failure takes place or is clearly threatened, the authorities need to be able to cut through existing, and typically laborious, national bankruptcy procedures. To do this will require new "resolution authorities" that can maintain necessary services and fulfill the immediate need for day-to-day financing while the failing organizations are liquidated, merged, or sold, whether in their entirety or piece by piece. Shareholders and management will be gone. Creditors will be placed at risk.

Such arrangements are incorporated in the Dodd–Frank law. I think it fair to say that there is a great deal of skepticism about whether these arrangements will be effective in the midst of crises, and whether market participants will continue to presume that governments will again "ride to the rescue." Surely, that skepticism is likely to remain until the most important of the various jurisdictions—including private, national, and international systems—can be brought into reasonable alignment.

My sense is that efforts are, in fact, well under way to clear away some of the technical underbrush and to agree on procedures for intervention and exchanging information. An important element in that effort is the concept of requiring the systemically important institutions to develop "living wills." The idea is that those institutions reorganize their various operations to the extent necessary to facilitate the sales merger, or "stand alone" arrangements for parts of the organization in the event of threatened failure.

It is evident that there is not yet full agreement on elements of the basic structure needed for banking and other financial operations. Some jurisdictions seem content with what is termed "universal banks"—i.e., banks engaging in commercial banking and the full range of investment banking and even commercial trade, for example—whatever the conflicting risks and clash of cultures involved. In the United States, there are now restrictions on the activities of commercial banking organizations, particularly with respect to trading in capital markets, hedge funds, and links with commercial firms.

Financial institutions not undertaking commercial banking should be able to continue a full range of trading and investment banking activities, and even could continue links with commercial or industrial firms. When deemed "systemically significant," they will be subject to capital requirements and greater surveillance than in the past. However, for such institutions there should be no presumption of official support—access to the Federal Reserve, to deposit insurance, or otherwise. Presumably, for them, failure will be more likely than in the case of regulated commercial banks protected by the government safety net. Therefore, it is important that a new process for resolving the problems of risk and failure be available and promptly brought into play.

The Independent Commission on Banking in the United Kingdom—the so-called Vickers Commission—proposed in September a more sweeping structural change for organizations engaged in commercial banking. In essence, within a single financial organization the range of ordinary banking operations—taking deposits and making loans—would be segregated in a "retail bank." That bank would be overseen by its own independent board of directors and "ring fenced" in a manner designed to greatly reduce relations with the rest of the organization, which may be involved in investment activities, proprietary trading, and underwriting.

Apparently, customers could deal with both parts of the organization, and some limited transactions permitted between them. But as I understand it, the "retail bank" would be much more closely regulated, with relatively high capital and other stringent requirements. The emphasis of such rules would be to insulate the bank from failures of the holding company and other affiliates. There seems to be at least a hint that public support may be available in time of crisis. That presumably would be ruled out for other affiliates of the organization.

The practical and legal implications of the UK proposal remain to be defined. Surely problems abound in trying to separate the fortunes of different parts of a single organization, reflected in the length and detail of the commission's report. Perhaps most fundamentally, directors and managements of a holding company are ordinarily assumed to have responsibility to its stockholders for the capital, profits, and stability of the entire organization, which doesn't fit easily with the concept that one key subsidiary, the "retail bank," must have a truly independent board of its own.

As a matter of day-to-day operations, some interaction between the retail and investment banks is contemplated in the interest of minimizing costs and facilitating full customer service. American experiences with "firewalls" and prohibitions on transactions between a bank and its affiliates have not been entirely reassuring. Ironically, the philosophy of US regulators has been to satisfy themselves that a financial holding company and its nonbank affiliates should be a "source of strength" to the commercial bank. That principle has not been highly effective in practice.

In any event, while there are differences in the structural approaches to reform in the US and UK, they are in fundamental agreement on the key importance of protecting traditional commercial banking from the risks and conflicts of proprietary trading and other investment activity. Both are consistent with developing a practical authority for resolving bank and other failures of systemically important institutions. If it is widely agreed upon internationally, that will be the keystone in a stronger international financial system.

One thing is sure: we have passed beyond the stage in which we can expect the officials of central banks, regulatory authorities, and treasuries to rely on ad hoc responses in dealing with what have become increasingly frequent, complex, and dangerous financial breakdowns. Structural change is necessary. As it stands, the reform effort is incomplete. It needs fresh impetus. I challenge governments and central banks to take up the unfinished agenda.

—October 27, 2011

The Big Lie (Previews & Edits)

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 05:00 PM PDT

Whenever I go off on a rant when writing some critical polemic screed, I try not to edit myself. Just get it all out in print, and we can worry about editing down for style and clarity later. That works especially well if you, as a writer, have a some idea of where you want to go and what you want to say with a piece.

It also helps if you work with a top notch editor, and I have been fortunate to work with several: Aaron Task, my editor on Bailout Nation as well as at TheStreet.com; Thom Donlan at Barron’s; and my  editor at the Washington Post, Kelly Johnson.

Its freeing to blather out 2,000 words and let the professionals focus and tighten it up. But every now and again, something interesting ends up on the cutting room floor. In Bailout Nation, a delightfully vicious comment about Greenspan’s relationship with Ayn Rand was edited out (It was so obnoxiously clever I may have to publish it posthumously).

My column for this Sunday’s Washington Post, What Caused the Financial Crisis? The Big Lie Goes Viral, looks at the false crisis narratives pushed by people for various reasons. Its not unusual to see this from the usual suspects, but it is a big surprise when it comes out of NYC’s pragmatic technocrat Mayor Mike Bloomberg.

KJ slashed my blather in half, cutting out the flabby digressions and distractions. The finished piece just hums.

But as I alluded to earlier, some of the more interesting parts got lost in the process. What follows are some of the trimmings from two earlier versions of The Big Lie, none of which made it to the final piece.

First up: The original draft was all over the place, kinda randomly calling out people; the early version had the following text:

Peter Wallison, FCIC member: Before joining the financial commission, Wallison was the Co-Director of co-director of the American Enterprise Institute Financial Deregulation Project. Since the crisis occurred, the AEI changed the project's name to the more benign "program on financial policy studies." They also scrubbed Wallison's bio from any mention of the Financial Deregulation Project.

Joe Kernan, CNBC Anchor: Viewers who tune in each morning expecting to get a quick update on the news instead see Squawkbox Anchor and former Merrill Lynch Broker Kernan shilling for the Street. He never seems to pass up an opportunity to exonerate banks and blame the wrong players for the financial collapse. Whether it was the Community Reinvestment Act or Fannie & Freddie, apparently anyone but Wall Street was at fault. Perhaps the tiresome repetition of the same discredited memes helps to explain the CNBC's softening ratings.

Investor's Business Daily: IBD published not an opinion piece, but an article laying fault for the entire crisis on a 1994 HUD statement against bank redlining. Of course, if that was the cause of the crisis, then the bank redlined areas of the country – inner cities like Harlem and the worst parts of Philly and Chicago and Detroit and Washington DC was were the lending boom and bust would have taken place. But we know it was the tony suburbs of California and Arizona, as well as the Condos in Florida and the Exurbs in Nevada that boomed the most.

Mayor Mike Bloomberg: Embarrassed himself this week, blindly repeating the discredited talking points. He exonerated Wall Street, stating "It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.” What made Bloomberg's erroneous comments so stunning is that he built his Bloomberg Data Service business on the notion that data is what ultimately matters most to investors. He ignored his own principles to repeat statements he knew (or should have known) were false.

I thought about the pieces to this as KJ and I edited it down to a more reasonable size. “Man bites Dog” is really the story here, mostly because Mayor Bloomberg is not just another wingnut. So the mid version of the column focused more on Bloomberg, and downgraded the usual Financial Crisis Denialists to a mere sentence apiece.

Cleaned up a bit, and notably better than the series above, it looked like this:

Mayor Mike Bloomberg: Embarrassed himself this week, blindly repeating the discredited talking points. He exonerated Wall Street, stating "It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.” What made Bloomberg's erroneous comments so stunning is that he built his Bloomberg Data Service business on the notion that data is what ultimately matters most to investors. He ignored his own principles to repeat statements he knew (or should have known) were false.

Its not just Mayor Bloomberg – you can see the Big Lie in action everywhere. Perhaps the Mayor saw a recent The Investor's Business Daily article that blamed the crisis on a 1994 Housing and Urban Development memo (Smoking-Gun Document Ties Policy To Housing Crisis, by PAUL SPERRY 10/31/2011). Maybe he read FCIC member Peter Wallison's dissent; of course, Wallison was co-director of the American Enterprise Institute "Financial Deregulation Project" so its no surprise he dissented from the report laying blame on radical deregulation of the finance sector. Perhaps the Mayor watches CNBC's morning program, Squawkbox. Viewers are treated to a regular repetition of the Big Lie, as anchor Joe Kernan exonerates banks and blames Congress for the crisis on a near daily basis.

The final version is even more compact. It dispatched all of the goofballs — Wallison, Kernan, IBD are totally dropped from the finished product. The focus is partly on why Bloomberg went off the reservation, but mostly on what actually caused the finacial crisis.

I’ll tweet it as soon as soon as its out online @ritholtz

10 Thursday PM Reads

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:30 PM PDT

Here is my afternoon train reading:

• Wall Street Is Shrinking (Daily Beast)
• Emperor Corzine's Goldman clothes (FT.com)
• The market is not rigged against your investment success – your brain is (Interloper)
• Growing Economies, Stagnant Wages (Economix)
• Italy’s ‘shock therapy’ as eurozone manufacturing buckles (Telegraph)
• City Attorney files charges against Goldline International (Santa Monica Daily Press)
• Interest Rates vs. Violent Crimes (World Beta)
• A Microsoft two-fer:
…..-Why Microsoft’s Vision Of The Future Is Dead On Arrival (Fast Co Design)
…..-The inside story of how Microsoft killed its Courier tablet (C/Net)
• Amazon Lights the Fire With Free Books (Circuits)
• Deep Intellect (Orion Magazine)

Happy third blogiversary to Josh!

>

Engineering for Real-Time at Twitter

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:00 PM PDT

How Much Money Will Consumers Spend This Holiday Season?

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 11:30 AM PDT

Click to enlarge graphic:

Source:
How Much Money Will Consumers Spend This Holiday Season?
Mashable, November 1, 2011

Can Litigation Bring Down Wall Street?

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 09:00 AM PDT

Click to watch video:

Source:
Can litigation bring down Wall Street?
FT. com

Corporate Tax Avoidance?

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:29 AM PDT

Last week, I tossed up an infographic about corporate tax rates. There was fierce pushback, challenging the numbers.

So I set about to find out some more info on the subject. The results of that are seen in the reads this morning, but more significantly, the report from the Greenlining Institute, titled Corporate America Untaxed: Tax Avoidance on the Rise.

Its posted in the Think Tank, and makes for interesting reading.

Tax Avoidance on The Rise

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:15 AM PDT

My Big Fat Greek Thursday AM Reads

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:00 AM PDT

My big fat Greek morning reads:

• The Fed:
…..-FOMC Keeps Its Finger on Trigger (WSJ)
…..-Bernanke Gives Impetus to New Stimulus (Bloomberg)
• The Chinese Shadow Banking System: Swimming Naked in China (The Diplomat)
• Biggest Public Firms Paid Little U.S. Tax, Study Says (NYT) see also Many companies pay no income taxes, study finds (CNN Money)
• Shale Gas Reserves Could Reignite U.S. Economy (Bloomberg)
• Greece:
…..-Greece: The Debtor that Roared (Naked Capitalism)
…..-Is Greece bluffing? (Fortune)
…..-1998: Joining Euro A Dim Hope For Greece  (Crossing Wall Street)
…..-Euro's Leaders Question Greek Membership (Bloomberg)
• Many Alarms Rang Before MF Global Crashed (DealBook)
• BofA 'Should Be Worried' as Customers Mull Defecting, Poll Shows (Bloomberg) see also Court Hits Wells Fargo Over Mortgages (WSJ)
• 8 Things I'd Rather See Apple Do With Their Cash (I Heart Wall Street)
• Could Japan’s economic malaise strike here in U.S.? (USA Today) see also U.S. Firms Pose Hurdle for Yuan (WSJ)
• Your Brain on Politics: The Cognitive Neuroscience of Liberals and Conservatives (Discover Magazine)

What are you reading?
>

Source: Meat Prices Continue Their Bull Run (WSJ)

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