Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

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• Scoring Strategies for the Underdog
• Follow the Bouncing Mobile Devs
• Twitter Digest: 2011-11-03
• Authors@Google: Steven Pinker

Scoring Strategies for the Underdog Posted: 03 Nov 2011 11:46 PM PDT Fun new paper on scoring strategies for underdogs in sports: Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A general, quantitative method for determining optimal sports strategies When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average variance. The difficult question is how much risk a team should be willing to accept. This is equivalent to asking how much the team should be willing to sacrifice from its mean score in order to increase the scores variance. In this paper a general, analytical method is developed for addressing this question quantitatively. Under the assumption that every play in a game is statistically independent, both the mean and the variance of a teams offensive output can be described using the binomial distribution. This description allows for direct calculations of the winning probability when a particular strategy is employed, and therefore allows one to calculate optimal offensive strategies. This paper develops this method for calculating optimal strategies exactly and then presents a simple heuristic for determining whether a given strategy should be adopted. A number of interesting and counterintuitive examples are then explored, including the merits of stalling for time, the run/pass/Hail Mary choice in American football, and the correct use of Hack-a-Shaq. via [1111.0693] Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A general, quantitative method for determining optimal sports strategies.

Follow the Bouncing Mobile Devs Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:30 PM PDT The latest Q3 IDC/Appcelerator survey of developer interest in various mobile operating systems. I used last year’s version of this data a year ago, in part, when I began my RIMM short. Follow the bouncing devs to know which mobile platforms are likely to do well.

Twitter Digest: 2011-11-03 Posted: 03 Nov 2011 12:00 PM PDT Am entertained by the debacle at Sony today: halving TV sales estimates, troubles in components, etc. Huge confirmatory bias fodder. # Full disclosure: Still cheerfully short Sony, of course. # Updata: With me slowly covering RIMM, my two largest tech shorts are now MSFT and SNE. No glory in former — yet. # "Everyone has opinions. We have convictions." Ironic magazine ad from newly bust MF Global /via @wsj http://t.co/hloxub4u # Speaking of WSJ, I like how it's getting away from whole distraction of running news on front page. http://t.co/aD9Zmgcb # Am on a zero travel week. It always feel like being at a resort on holidays. # Having been involved with its propagation early on, can I now say I wish people would shut up already about "big data". I am so tired of it. # What's the opposite of "big data"? Little anecdote. I'm officially back in favor of that. # RT @kathrynschulz Big Data to Little Anecdote = frying pan to fire. How about "modest hypothesis" (or even "small hunch") instead? # Celebrity defined down RT @brianstorms: Surprise visit from @pkedrosky at @Nettle's office! Our first celebrity! http://t.co/6kOhFZuw # Notice telltale hats, khaki shorts, upturned collars & stroller: Yes, a sighting of homo touristicus, La Jolla variant http://t.co/o9OR0ezp # Only time I watch hour of fincl TV is when having my teeth cleaned, which is often on Fed days. Now associate @SullyCNBC with tooth pain. # I'm in Portugal week after next. Don't say I didn't warn you. # Because It's Steep: Why people run Mt Washington – http://t.co/VwBJgmht /via @kathrynschulz # Watching Ben Bernanke press conferences is much better on nitrous oxide. All the beard, none of the content. # First bears, and now this: Swimming jellyfish may influence global climate – http://t.co/b22gQier # Roy Batty would have loved this: Clearance of p16Ink4a-positive senescent cells delays ageing-associated disorders – http://t.co/O0YPuxYV # Energy Economics: What Will Turn Us On in 2030? http://t.co/wqxId1hC # Ah, ash falling from the sky and the smell of burning chaparral. It must be Santa Ana season in San Diego. # I get the distinct sense that in an alternative dimension I was/am/will be a pyromaniac. I love the smell of wildfires # Argued to a friend today that Google today increasingly reminds me of Microsoft circa 1999. Such clumsiness after such a run. # New paper: "Price-quakes" in global stock exchanges – http://t.co/z5u340kP # Got to play "guess the reporter's real agenda" on a reporter call today. I hate doing that, but refuse to be sandbagged. # U.S. is first choice of wealthy Chinese emigrants, but Canada right behind which is huge per capita skew – http://t.co/lS9iRfWD # .@AGORACOM Yeah, made that point in a blog post. China funneling is larger yet when you consider immigration is Vancouver/Toronto only. # Pew: Graphic of historical long-term US unemployment http://t.co/LScG0jJ6 # Only Robert Reich can take data I agree with and an argument I agree with and make me disagree. That's a skill. http://t.co/29uIzBNl # Favorite email subject line du jour: "Paul Kedrosky is Half Executed". # Powered by Twitter Tools

Authors@Google: Steven Pinker Posted: 03 Nov 2011 10:20 AM PDT Authors@Google: Steven Pinker – YouTube. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

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