The Big Picture |
- I say ‘no way’ to Kocherlakota
- 3:30 Bill Gurtin
- Michael Belkin 2:30
- 1:45 Jim Bianco
- 1:00 David Rosenberg
- 11:15 Barry Ritholtz
- 10:30 James O’Shaughnessy
- Purchase apps/Europe/Asia
- 8:45 Neil Barosfsky
- TBP Conference is Today!
| I say ‘no way’ to Kocherlakota Posted: 10 Oct 2012 12:34 PM PDT Non voting Fed member Narayana Kocherlakota is repeating his belief that “as long as the FOMC is continuing to satisfy its price stability mandate, it should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5%. Kocherlakota defines “price stability” as inflation “within a quarter of a percentage point of the target inflation rate of 2%.” Now most of my readers know I’ve been highly critical of the Fed dating back to the Greenspan years and this commentary from Kocherlakota just gives me more reason to be critical. I apologize to those who are tired of hearing it but I feel its necessary to call them out when deserved. With $1.5T of excess banking reserves sitting with the Fed, after a 250% increase in the Fed balance sheet with money conjured out of nowhere, he thinks the US economy can somehow improve to such an extent that the unemployment rate is going to fall to below 5.5% and consumer price inflation will remain 2.25% or less. I of course don’t know what econometric models he is using but without using one I feel confident that this will be virtually statistically impossible. Just looking to last year, from April ’11 to Feb ’12, the headline PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge now instead of CPI) rose 2.4% or greater y/o/y while the unemployment rate was between 8.3% and 9.0%. Bottom line, while it can still be a ways off, the Fed’s memoirs won’t be fully written until this extraordinary policy is unwound as the process will be clearly eventful to say the least. |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 12:30 PM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 12:00 PM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 10:45 AM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 10:00 AM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 08:15 AM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 07:30 AM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 05:51 AM PDT While mortgage rates have stopped falling after the initial decline after the Fed’s MBS plan was revealed, the MBA said purchase apps rose 2.4%, up for a 3rd week and to a 4 month high. Refi’s though took a breather, falling 2% after last week’s almost 20% jump. With respect to Europe, speaking in Japan IMF head Lagarde cheered the ESM but didn’t tip her hat on how more financially involved the IMF will get with Europe if needed. The IMF did call though for the ECB to cut rates again but ECB members, also in Japan, said rates are fine just where they are and it’s the transmission of their policy that is the issue, not the current level. One ECB member said they’ve “worked out all the details” of their bond buying plan and are just waiting for the tap on the shoulder. Data wise, France and Italy both reported an unexpected rise in IP m/o/m in Aug. In Asia, the Nikkei closed down 2% on concerns that auto sales will continue to get impacted by the standoff with China. Notwithstanding broad equity market weakness in Asia, the Shanghai index closed up for a 2nd day on anticipation for some more short term liquidity. |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 05:45 AM PDT |
| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 04:30 AM PDT
October 10, 2012 from 8:30 AM to 5:00 PM (EDT) Today is the big day! You can stream the conference all day from your computer. (Details are here). Bloomberg Radio will be broadcasting from the event, you can listen hear after 10am. Fora.TV will have a all the videos from this year's conference available for a single price or as individual views a few weeks after the conference. Full conference schedule after the jump. Speaker presentations are in the Think Tank, contemporaneously as each presenter hits the stage.
Sentry Centers (TIAA-CREF Bldg)
8:30 Introductions 8:45 Neil Barosfsky Bailout: An Inside Account of How Washington Abandoned Main Street While Rescuing Wall Street 9:30 Dylan Grice in conversation with Rich Yamarone A Great Disorder Comes 10:30 James O'Shaughnessy What Works on Wall Street 11:15 Barry Ritholtz, This is Your Brain on Stocks 1:00 David Rosenberg NAVIGATING THE NEW NORMAL: Risks, Challenges and … Opportunities 1:45 Jim Bianco What Is The Fed's Plan And Will It Work? 2:30 Michael Belkin Reality vs. Wishful Thinking: Bear Markets and the Business Cycle, a 110 Year View 3:30 Bill Gurtin Municipal Bonds: Mispricing & Inefficiencies 4:15 Sal Arnuk, Scott Patterson & Josh Brown High Frequency Trading and Its Discontents |
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