The Big Picture |
- Acapella Only: Theme Songs
- Weekly Eurozone Watch (11/16/12)
- Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/16/12)
- Where Does Your Nation Rank on Wellbeing?
- Worst Quarter for Corporate Profits in 3 Years
- The Secessionist Declaration of Independence
- Japan closing in on China as largest holder of US debt
- Japan downgrades its economy, yet again
- 10 Friday AM Reads
- Kumbaya?/Nikkei spikes again/Shanghai drops again
| Posted: 16 Nov 2012 01:30 PM PST The classic 1964 James Bond Theme, recording is 100% vocals, made up of more than 30 tracks: James Bond Theme Vocal Cover (Nick McKaig & Trudbol) ~~~ 30 Tracks, Vocals Only: The Simpsons Theme Song ~~~ 90 tracks, voice only: Star Wars Main Title Theme ~~~ 100% vocals, all tracks are unaltered. Except for the horse neighing Rossini: William Tell Overture Music of Nick McKaig |
| Weekly Eurozone Watch (11/16/12) Posted: 16 Nov 2012 01:00 PM PST Key Data Points
Comments
Europe experienced widespread austerity protests this week; Source: The Guardian
(click here if charts are not observable) |
| Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/16/12) Posted: 16 Nov 2012 12:00 PM PST Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives:
Negatives:
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| Where Does Your Nation Rank on Wellbeing? Posted: 16 Nov 2012 10:30 AM PST Click for full image
Source: Where Does Your Nation Rank on Wellbeing?
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| Worst Quarter for Corporate Profits in 3 Years Posted: 16 Nov 2012 09:30 AM PST
With most of Q3 earnings now reported, we can take a quick look at the numbers, and they are none too pretty. Before you roll your focus to Q4 earnings, lets pull a few numbers from Nasdaq:
Here is the kicker: Earnings expectations for Q4 and for 2013 have yet to be ratched down in a meaningful way. Earnings expectations for 2013 are expected to be up 11%. Revenues are expected up 3.6% in 2013.
Sources: Fourth-Quarter Earnings the Next Concern |
| The Secessionist Declaration of Independence Posted: 16 Nov 2012 09:00 AM PST |
| Japan closing in on China as largest holder of US debt Posted: 16 Nov 2012 08:00 AM PST For just the 2nd month since mid 2009, foreigners sold US Treasuries on a net basis according to the just released TIC data. The main sellers though may have been hedge funds rather than central banks as the biggest region of selling came from the Caribbean where many funds are housed. It coincided with the wild Treasury ride in Sept where the FOMC meeting cut the month in the middle. The 1st half of Sept saw the 10 yr yield jump from 1.55% to 1.87% only to fall back to 1.63% by months end. Both China and Japan added to their holdings but Japan has really ramped up its buying of US Treasuries over the past 6 months and is now only $25b away from passing China as the largest owner of our debt. IP and the hurricane impact ndustrial Production in October fell .4%, well below expectations of a gain of .2% but the Fed is saying that Hurricane Sandy “is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point. The largest estimated storm related effects included reductions in the output of utilities (don’t most of us know unfortunately), of chemicals, of food, of transportation equipment, and of computers and electronic products.” Manufacturing IP fell .9% but the Fed estimates that production would have been flat vs Sept “excluding storm related effects.” Bottom line, the hurricane impact will continue in the data and we’ll do our best to separate it out so as to get a more recurring view of the US economy. |
| Japan downgrades its economy, yet again Posted: 16 Nov 2012 07:30 AM PST The Japanese government downgraded its view on the Japanese economy, once again. The report, released today, reduced forecast employment, consumption, investment and corporate profits. The head of the opposition LDP party Mr Abe (expected to be the largest party in the coming general election) repeated his call for aggressive monetary action to stimulate the economy and weaken the Yen and, in addition, suggested introducing legislation to curtail the independence of the BoJ. The Nikkei has reacted positively to a potential change of government – its up over 4.0% over the last 2 days, as the Yen weakens; The EZ is pressing to settle the issue of providing further aid to Greece on the 20th November. The IMF, Mrs Lagarde will attend the meeting; The EZ September trade surplus (seasonally adjusted) rose to E11.3bn, higher than the E9.5bn expected and as opposed to E1.7bn in the corresponding period last year. Exports fell by -1.1% M/M, though imports declined by -2.7% reflecting weaker demand. German exports declined by -1.5% in October M/M, with imports -2.5% lower; French authorities are finalising legislation which will force its banks to separate parts of their investment-banking operations into separate entities. Details are not available as yet, including which activities will need to be transferred into the separate activities; US October CPI came in at +0.1% M/M (+2.2% Y/Y), in line with expectations though much lower than +0.6% in September; US November Empire State manufacturing index came in at -5.22, better than the -8.00 expected and -6.16 in October. The new orders component rose to 3.08, as opposed to -8.98 previously. The employment component came in at -14.61, from 1.08 previously, the lowest since July 2009, with new orders at 3.08 as opposed to -8.98 previously. Hurricane Sandy impacted the numbers; The November Philly Fed index declined to -10.7, much lower than the 2.0 expected and 5.7 in October. New orders came in at -4.6, from -0.6 previously, with prices paid at 27.9 as opposed to 19.0 previously. The employment component came in at -6.8, versus -10.7 previously. The expectations component came in at 20.0, lower than 21.6 previously. The numbers were impacted by Hurricane Sandy; US jobless claims rose by 78k to 439k in the week to 10th November, higher than the 375k expected. The 4 week moving average rose to 384k, with continuing claims rising to 3.334mn for the week to 3rd November. The numbers were impacted by Hurricane Sandy;
The US National Association of Retailers forecasts that retail sales will rise by +4.1% Y/Y to US$586bn in the period from Thanksgiving day (23rd November) through the holiday season, their most optimistic forecast since 2007; BP has agreed to pay an US$4.5bn fine to settle criminal charges brought against it by the US Department of Justice. The company still faces civil claims from federal, state and local authorities; Outlook Whilst the Nikkei and Hong Kong closed higher, Asian markets were mainly lower. European markets are also weaker. US futures suggest a flat to slightly lower open, though are improving. Gold is trading at US$1710, with December Brent at US$108.60. Markets continue to be fragile. However, some “fix” on Greece is likely next week. The politicians start talking about the US fiscal cliff today – expect these talks to go to the wire. Whilst, I accept that it will create uncertainty, US economic data is improving and the market continues to believe that some deal will be done. However, Israeli tanks are collecting on the Gaza border, which is a real concern – Brent has not reacted materially. Still believe that markets are oversold, with some bounce back likely. Have bought some UK financials and global energy companies. Have a great weekend. Kiron Sarkar 16th November 2012 |
| Posted: 16 Nov 2012 06:35 AM PST My morning reads:
What are you reading?
Global business barometer |
| Kumbaya?/Nikkei spikes again/Shanghai drops again Posted: 16 Nov 2012 06:33 AM PST In terms of the major issue of the day, that being fiscal, today’s the most important day of the week as finally the President will have a coffee talk with both Republican and Democratic leaders. While both sides are now using the balance word, the rhetoric seems to have only been on the tax side (which solves little) and nothing on the spending side (which is out of control and can solve almost everything). The market is very oversold, sentiment is negative and is thus set up for a short term bounce if it hears any signs of Kumbaya out of the meeting. Elsewhere, just as US stocks loved QE, Japan is getting a taste of the same on the possibility that new leadership could encourage the BoJ to play on a bigger scale. The Nikkei rallied another 2.2%, up 4.2% over the past two days and is at a two week high. With the Japanese people loaded up on yen and JGB’s, Japanese stocks and gold will be their only place of safety in maintaining purchasing power. I say buy both and hedge out yen exposure. As the pace of reform is uncertain with the change of power in China, the Shanghai index fell for the 8th day in the past 10 to just shy of the lowest level since March ’09. Hong Kong’s economy grew 1.3% y/o/y in Q3, below expectations of a rise of 1.7%. |
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