The Big Picture |
- Gay Women Will Marry Your Boyfriends . . .
- TBP Holiday Shopping Ideas!
- 10 Midweek PM Reads
- Equity Market Analytics Review (11/28/12)
- Graphic Look at the Fiscal Cliff
- Themis Trading Soup Kitchen Auction
- Choose Your Defective Survey, Gallup Edition
- New Home Sales light vs expectations
- Japanese investors buying more foreign currency bonds
- 121212 The Concert for Sandy Relief #121212concert
- 10 Mid-Week AM Reads
- NI CONGRESS
| Gay Women Will Marry Your Boyfriends . . . Posted: 28 Nov 2012 05:00 PM PST |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2012 04:30 PM PST Its become an annual TBP tradition — each year, I pick some of the more odd & interesting things I stumble across in my travels as well as items off of my own wish list. We always get lots of good feedback about this — so following my last post mocking Black Friday numbers, juts to show I’m no Scrooge, let’s kick off the Shopmas season with some ideas for those of you who may have been very, very good this year. Go forth and stimulate: ~~~
For the Camper/Outdsoorsman on your list: I own a Leatherman that costs 3X what the Gerber runs, but I honestly cannot explain why. This is a solid tool at a very reasonable price. Bonus: Gerber makes several solid collapse shovels that are also reasonably priced (see this and this) ~~~
Contains some of the funniest comedies ever filmed: Sullivan’s Travels/The Lady Eve/The Palm Beach Story/Hail the Conquering Hero/The Great McGinty/Christmas in July/The Great Moment Preston Sturgess wrote, produced and directed all 7 films. Sturgess fans will note that this is not the complete works — what is not included: are Stugess gems such as The Miracle of Morgan's Creek; The Beautiful Blond from Bashful Bend; and two of my all time favorites, Unfaithfully Yours; The Sin of Harold Diddlebook). Regardless, it is a mighty fine starter set for any film buff, school student or budding fan of cinema. Bonus: The Lady Eve may be the single best romantic comedy ever made. ~~~
The fussy C3PO protocol droid as a ridiculously cute flash drive. Check out the R2D2 drives as well. See other themed flash drives at Mimoco.
~~~
On December 10, 2007, Led Zeppelin took the stage at London's O2 Arena to headline a tribute concert — and what followed has been described as possibly the greatest rock and roll concert ever — a two-hour+ tour de force of the band's signature rock 'n' roll. Robert Plant, Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones and Jason Bonham, (son of late drummer John Bonham), performed 17 songs, recorded in high definition with stunning audio quality. My head exploded as I listened to this. Buy it for any 50 something rockhead in your family — they guy who knows that Kanye ain’t shit, Bon Jovbi is a pussy, and this is real Rock and Roll. Ramble on . . . ~~~ Mel Brooks and Carl Reiner met 60 years while working on Sid Caesar's television series "Your Show of Shows" as writers. They created this routine (which the show turned down) in which Reiner asks earnest questions of Brooks who is a 2,000 Year Old Man. It was ground breaking in its time, and today, its simply hilarious. The two of them are Masters of Comedy. This is a work of stunning originality, and remains studied and revered by comedians even today. Brilliant comedic wit, timing and improvisation by two of the greatest comedians ever — this is simply the perfect gift for anyone on your list who fancies himself a quick wit or funny guy. Bonus: Brooks & Reiner have been making the rounds lately, doing a Seinfeld interview as well as a Dick Cavett HBO special. ~~~
• Exploring Wine: Completely Revised 3rd Edition $39 For the oenophile on your list: Essential wine reference for food and wine aficionados. This is an invaluable guide that will demystify wine, teach the basics of wine production to the nuances of wine lists. Written by pros for pros, but accessible to anyone. Bonus: Drink as you read!
~~~
The missus has been after me to get a single cup coffee maker, but I have ducked them — they all are mostly terrible. I was about to spring $200 for the Starbuck Verisimo, when a reader pointed me to this: A lovely stainless steel beastie that not only brews a nice pot of coffee, but also has a single cup setting. There is an insanely detailed description at Amazon of all the features. (The price does seem to be fluctuating a bit) Note the Breville BDC550XL The YouBrew Glass version — which is minus the thermal pot and some minor features — also does the single cup brew is on sale for $179. ~~~
Go to YouTube and do a GoPro search — you will pull up half a million videos of the most mind blowing filmed activities — everything from skydiving to free skiing to kite surfing to amateur track day racing. Lots more good stuff at the Go Pro site. There are waterproof surf versions, motorsports editions, and of course, the helmet cams. Check out some of the incredible videos at YouTube. Or better yet, go make your own!
• Octopus Vase by Shayne Greco: ($700) This is one of those items that a photo simply cannot do justice to: A double octopus vase, standing 15x17x16, cephalopods’ tentacles engulfing the entire vase in 8 arms of sucker cupped glory. More photos here. Artist: Shayne Greco; Retailer: OBX Trading
• Skip Barber Performance Driving School: $1500 – 3200 I previously mentioned my experiences at Lime Rock, but the experience was really more than driving — it was all about the Skip Barber classes — if you never took a high performance driving course, well, you should. (Then go back for a refresher every 5 years). The nice thing about giving this as a gift, is 1) It is very memorable; 2) You can save someone’s life by teaching them to drive well; 3) It is ridiculously fun. I highly recommend it!
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2012 01:30 PM PST My afternoon train reading:
What are you reading?
Shares Hit 4-Year Low In China |
| Equity Market Analytics Review (11/28/12) Posted: 28 Nov 2012 12:30 PM PST |
| Graphic Look at the Fiscal Cliff Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:30 AM PST |
| Themis Trading Soup Kitchen Auction Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:25 AM PST
100% of the proceeds will be donated to St. John's Soup Kitchen in Newark New Jersey! Feed the Hungry! (http://njsoupkitchen.org/) Won't you click on the below Ebay link to bid? The package includes a new Themis Trading logo' d Wenger backpack, an autographed copy of our book Broken Markets, and a bottle of Themis Market Structure Whine. And won't you please pass it around to your friends and coworkers perhaps? Or even tweet it? Any exposure you could give would be appreciated! http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290822965554 Thank You from Your Friends at Themis! |
| Choose Your Defective Survey, Gallup Edition Posted: 28 Nov 2012 08:45 AM PST Black Friday weekend spending substantially below 2011
Source: Gallup
This morning, I noted the errors that merely repeating surveys from PR firms combined with not understanding the cognitive errors inherent in these sorts of exercises. (There is a separate issue of relying on PR industry flacks and spokesgroups who have specific agendas, but I will save that for another day). As an example of the problem of using self-reported surveys versus actual sales data, another issue arises: Which survey do you use? Which one do you believe? For example, Gallup did a survey that found the opposite of what NRF found — that spending actually fell — and significantly:
My advice is to investors: Don’t cherry pick the survey that confirms your preconceived notions. Instead, look to actual sales data. If you do not want to wait for Commerce or BEA to release their numbers, then use Visa/Master Card –they may be skewed online (cant pay cash) and perhaps demographically, but at least their imprecision is modest. As we saw this morning, the self-reporting surveys results tend to be poor. Hard retail receipts trump squishy surveys every time.
Source: |
| New Home Sales light vs expectations Posted: 28 Nov 2012 07:45 AM PST New Home Sales in October totaled 368k, 22k less than expected and Sept was revised down by 20k to 369k. Sales were last above 400k in April ’10 when the home buying tax credit goosed results. Sales fell by 10k in the Northeast but its unlikely it captured the storm at the end of the month. Sales also fell in the South but rose in the Midwest and West. With sales down 1k m/o/m and the amount of homes for sale up by 2k, months supply rose a touch to 4.8 from 4.7. The median home price at $237,700, was up 5.7% y/o/y but lower by 4.2% sequentially. Bottom line, while the housing industry is recovering, new home sales have trended between 360k and 370k for the last 6 months, still 73% below the bubblicious peak in July ’05 and not too far above the trough seen in 1982 and still below the bottom seen in the 1991 recession. We’ve bottomed in housing and have bounced off that bottom but perspective must be in order considering how far we fell. On one hand, there is plenty of room for continued improvement but on the other, the healing process will take a lot of time and will likely be in fits and starts as recoveries from the aftermath of bubbles typically are. |
| Japanese investors buying more foreign currency bonds Posted: 28 Nov 2012 07:30 AM PST The Japanese MoF reported that net buying of foreign bonds by Japanese investors rose by 285% to Yen 15.2tr (US$183bn) this year to 17th November. Mr Abe’s, (the likely next Japanese PM), comments to raise inflation to 2.0% and weaken the Yen has resulted in investors buying foreign currency denominated debt. In addition, foreign debt is providing greater income than yields on Japanese JGB’s. This trend should continue, weakening the Yen, especially if Mr Abe becomes the next PM; The US Treasury has deemed that China is not a currency manipulator, though added that the Yuan is “significantly undervalued” and that the “process of adjustment remains incomplete”. The Treasury stated that the Yuan had risen against the US$ and that the Chinese had reduced intervention and were moving towards a more flexible exchange rate regime. The report which was delayed notes that Chinese forex reserves have declined materially to around US$19bn per quarter, from an average of US$140bn per quarter in 2011. The decision was expected. The Yuan rose to a 19 year high yesterday; The Chinese Minister of Commerce states that the country will achieve a GDP growth rate of +7.5% in 2012. If he says so, it must be the case;
Chinese markets are down around 16% YTD. However, EPFR, the fund flow research company, reports that money has been flowing into China for the past 10 weeks – not a great deal, just US$3.7bn, though a reversal from the US$2bn outflow between March to August this year. The Chinese authorities have been trying to attract foreign portfolio investment. Personally, I would wait for a bit longer. (Source FT); Spanish October retail sales declined by -8.4% Y/Y, though better than the forecast of -10.0% in September and -12.6% previously; The EU has approved the plans submitted by Spanish authorities to restructure 4 of its banks. As a result, Spanish banks will receive E37bn in aid from the ESM, with Bankia being the largest recipient (E18bn). Will it be enough – certainly not. Bondholders will share in losses, amounting to some E10bn; The German Finance Minister admitted that the EZ would have to provide additional funding for Greece in coming years as long as Greece meets its obligations. A number of German newspapers have been critical of the deal announced yesterday. The Bundestag is expected to vote on the bail out this Friday. The opposition parties are expected to vote in favour of the bail out package, which will ensure its passage. Interestingly, while the EZ expects the Greek economy to recover in 2014, the OECD expects the country’s economy to shrink by -1.3% that year (-4.5% in 2013), lower than the previous estimate of growth of +0.2%. It is expected that the Greek government will announce details of the bond buy back on Monday; German November provisional CPI came in at +1.9%, in line with expectations and +2.0% in October; With Greece obtaining better terms, the Portuguese and Irish are clearly demanding similar treatment – cant see how the EZ can say no to a reduction in interest rates, at least, though clearly more will be expected; The French President. Monsieur Hollande has threatened to nationalise ArcelorMittal, the 1st time the French have proposed nationalisation in 30 years. French politicians have voiced severe criticism of ArcelorMittal’s proposals to shut down steel plants in the country, with resulting job losses. Indeed, the rhetoric has been extraordinary;
The Senate majority leader, Mr Reid, stated that there was little progress on the US “fiscal cliff”. Here we go. Its back to the politics. Having said that, I continue to believe that a deal will be done, at, or more likely, just after the year end. US markets sold off on the report; Outlook Asian markets closed lower following last nights down market in the US. European markets are trading at lower levels as well. US markets have opened about -0.5% weaker, with US bond yields declining. Gold seems to have sold off sharply – currently US$ 1709, with January Brent at 108.67, off but still remarkably high. The Euro declined below US$1.29 today – currently US$1.2892, off its lows. Spanish bond yields continue to decline – they are at 5.47%, the lowest in a month. The market expects Spain to request a bail out, now that the regional elections in Catalonia are over. Should be Euro positive. Pretty dull day today. Still see no reason to buy the market, though will not reduce holdings. Kiron Sarkar 28th November 20 |
| 121212 The Concert for Sandy Relief #121212concert Posted: 28 Nov 2012 07:06 AM PST
• CLICK HERE TO DONATE NOW TO THE ROBIN HOOD RELIEF FUND • SPREAD THE WORD: #121212concert • For Updates and information: respond TO THE facebook INVITE
Source: 121212concert.org |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2012 06:48 AM PST My morning reads:
What are you reading?
Myspace grows 1% as Facebook falls double digits 10% |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2012 05:52 AM PST NI CONGRESS. Unfortunately that was my first input today on my Bloomberg to see what comment was made by some US politician depending on what side of the bed he or she got out on. This page will have to be up on my computer all day, everyday until a deal is finally announced on how to finance our ever growing welfare state. At least for the morning, I’ve seen no negotiating for the camera yet. On the impact from the other wing of the government, the unelected Federal Reserve, the MBA said refi apps fell 1.5% on the week, down for the 7th week in the past 8. Positively though, purchase apps did rise by 2.6%, up for a 3rd week to the most since June. In Europe, if Greece gets a new deal, ‘why can’t I’ is what’s being assumed by the market as bonds in Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy all continue to rally. Spanish yields are at one month lows and the Italian 10 yr yield is at the lowest since June ’11. The Irish 2 yr yield is below 2%. The quote of the day highlighting the worst nightmare of every money printing loving central banker comes from BoE Deputy Gov Charlie Bean who said today on QE, “The bang for buck might be a bit less now than it was in 2009. That doesn’t mean to say that you don’t want to do any more of it, it just means that to get the same effect, actually you have to do even more than before.” In Asia, the Shanghai index closed lower again, to the lowest since Jan ’09. |
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