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Monday, December 8, 2014

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


About Those Black Friday Numbers . . .

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 01:00 PM PST

Stories based on Black Friday consumer spending numbers are a holiday tradition. Bob talks with investor and Bloomberg View contributor Barry Ritholtz about the problems with stories based on those numbers.

 

NPR/WNYC:

Source: On the Media

How Speakers Make Sound

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 12:30 PM PST





Source: Animagraffs

Better Than All Weather Portfolio . . .

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 06:30 AM PST

>

 

My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we take yet another at Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio.

The print version had the headline Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out while online, it was Better Than All Weather Portfolio.

Rather than merely criticize Robbin’s 55% bond, 15% commodity portfolio, I offered up a variation of a classic 60/40:

All Century Portfolio
20 percent total U.S stock market
5 percent U.S. REITs
5 percent U.S. small cap value
15 percent Pacific equities
15 percent European equities
10 percent U.S. TIPs
10 percent U.S. high yield corp bonds
20 percent U.S. total bond market

And to add a little spice to the discussion, I challenge Robbin’s to a $100,000 bet:

I am willing to bet Tony Robbins that my Century portfolio will significantly outperform his all-weather portfolio over the next 20 years. Toward that I end, I propose that each of us puts $100,000 into our own portfolios. Set it with whatever automatic rebalancing you want — then leave it alone. On Jan. 1, 2035, whichever one is worth more is declared the winner. The loser then donates that original $100,000 investment to the charity of the winner's choice . . .

Seems like easy money to me

 

Source:
Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, December 7, 2014
http://wapo.st/1wh8SEn

10 Sunday AM Reads

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 04:00 AM PST

My Sunday morning reads:

• Top Independent Adviser With $3.5 Billion Once Lived on Credit (Bloomberg)
• Keeping Investors Scared Witless (Investing.com) see also The hidden message of the Hindenburg Omen (Humble Student of the Markets)
• Is the Bull Market Only Half Over? (Forbes)
• The Rise and Fall of Debate in Economics (Joe Francis)
• Central Banks Will Stay Easy in 2015, Because They Have No Choice (Bloomberg)
• Sheikhs v shale: The economics of oil have changed. (Economist) see also Steep Slide in Oil Prices Is Blessing for Most (NYT)
• World Leaders get their news from the New York Times, Reuters, CNN and the Economist (Twiplomacy)
• 'You will not be arrested for using drugs': What a sane drug policy looks like (WonkBlog)
• Five myths about Pearl Harbor (Washington Post) see also The Pearl Harbor Myth (HistoryNet)
• Ferrari Named Its New Car After Explicit Coitus And That’s FxxKing Great (Jalopnik)

What are you reading?

 

U.S. Payrolls in November Grew 321,000; Jobless Rate 5.8%

jobs data

Source: WSJ

 

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