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Friday, April 5, 2013

The Big Picture

The Big Picture


Only a Tiny Percentage of Americans Opposed to Breaking Up Big Banks

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 10:30 PM PDT

50% In Favor of Directly Breaking Them Up … Many More In Favor of Stopping Artificial Support and Letting them Shrink On Their Own

A new Huffington Post/YouGov poll finds:

Sixty-one percent of respondents said that banks and other financial institutions have become too large and powerful ….

A Rasmussen poll conducted last month found that:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 50% of U.S. Adults favor a plan to break up the 12 megabanks, which currently control about 69% of the banking industry. Twenty-three percent (23%) oppose breaking up the largest banks, while another 27% are undecided.

While polls show that Democrats favor breaking up the big banks more than Republicans, many Republicans point out that the big banks would fail on their own if the government stopped bailing them out. Indeed, a Harris poll from last year shows that 87% of Republicans are against bank bailouts. In other words, the percentage of Americans who favor breaking up the big banks – either directly through government intervention or indirectly by pulling the plug on their taxpayer life support – is probably more like 90-99%.

The 27% of Americans who don't yet have enough information to decide whether they are for directly breaking up the big banks may want to note that the following top economists and financial experts believe that the economy cannot recover unless the big, insolvent banks are broken up in an orderly fashion:

  • Current Vice Chair and director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – and former 20-year President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Thomas Hoenig (and see this)
  • Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York economist and Salomon Brothers vice chairman, Henry Kaufman
  • Dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, R. Glenn Hubbard
  • Former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, Simon Johnson (and see this)
  • The leading monetary economist and co-author with Milton Friedman of the leading treatise on the Great Depression, Anna Schwartz
  • Economics professor and senior regulator during the S & L crisis, William K. Black
  • Professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the Chicago Booth School of Business, Luigi Zingales
  • The Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Harvey Rosenblum
  • Director, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn, and Professor of Economics, University of Bonn, Martin Hellwig

And the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank – and former Goldman Sachs chief economist – William Dudley says that we should not tolerate a financial system in which certain financial institutions are deemed to be too big to fail.

Federal Reserve Board governor Daniel Tarullo also backs a cap on the size of banks, and Former Treasury secretary under Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Nicolas Brady, says that we need to put a cap on leverage.

The undecideds may also want to note that many top bankers are themselves calling for a break up, including:

  • Former managing director of Goldman Sachs – and head of the international analytics group at Bear Stearns in London- Nomi Prins
  • Numerous other bankers within the mega-banks (see this, for example)
  • Founder and chairman of Signature Bank, Scott Shay
  • Former Natwest and Schroders investment banker, Philip Augar
  • The President of the Independent Community Bankers of America, Camden Fine

Click here for background on why so many top bankers, economists, financial experts and politicians say that the big banks should be broken up.

Violence & Movies: Thoughts by Roger Ebert

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 04:30 PM PDT

Roger Ebert:

“The day after Columbine, I was interviewed for the Tom Brokaw news program. The reporter had been assigned a theory and was seeking sound bites to support it. 'Wouldn’t you say,’ she asked, 'that killings like this are influenced by violent movies?’

No, I said, I wouldn’t say that.

'But what about Basketball Diaries?’ she asked. 'Doesn’t that have a scene of a boy walking into a school with a machine gun?’

The obscure 1995 Leonardo Di Caprio movie did indeed have a brief fantasy scene of that nature, I said, but the movie failed at the box office (it grossed only $2.5 million), and it’s unlikely the Columbine killers saw it.

The reporter looked disappointed, so I offered her my theory. 'Events like this,’ I said, 'if they are influenced by anything, are influenced by news programs like your own. When an unbalanced kid walks into a school and starts shooting, it becomes a major media event. Cable news drops ordinary programming and goes around the clock with it. The story is assigned a logo and a theme song; these two kids were packaged as the Trench Coat Mafia. The message is clear to other disturbed kids around the country: If I shoot up my school, I can be famous. The TV will talk about nothing else but me. Experts will try to figure out what I was thinking. The kids and teachers at school will see they shouldn’t have messed with me. I’ll go out in a blaze of glory.

In short, I said, events like Columbine are influenced far less by violent movies than by CNN, the NBC Nightly News and all the other news media, who glorify the killers in the guise of 'explaining’ them. I commended the policy at the Sun-Times, where our editor said the paper would no longer feature school killings on Page 1.

The reporter thanked me and turned off the camera. Of course the interview was never used. They found plenty of talking heads to condemn violent movies, and everybody was happy.”

-November 2003

 

Roger Ebert, 1942-2013

10 Thursday PM Reads

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 01:30 PM PDT

My afternoon train reading:

Mom and pop: The world's worst investors (MarketWatch)
• China Turns Graveyard From Goldmine Hurting Ship Makers: Freight (Bloomberg)
• The Growing Sentiment on the Hill For Ending ‘Too Big To Fail’ (Rolling Stone) see also Big Banks' Success Could Spell Their Doom (Bloomberg)
Fiduciary Duty to Cheat? Stock Market Super-Star Jim Chanos Reveals the Perverse New Mindset of Financial Fraudsters (AlterNet)
• A Debate in the Open on the Fed (NYT) see also Helicopter QE will never be reversed (Telegraph)
• The NRA's disarming plan to arm schools (Washington Post)
• Keystone XL: The pipeline to disaster (Los Angeles Times)
• David Stockman and the Cult of Gloom (Atlantic)
• Twenty Awesome Covers From The US Space Program (Space)
• The Lease They Can Do: What the Fight Over ‘Used’ Music Reveals About Online Media (Businessweek)

What are you reading?

 

Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected

Source: Bespoke

Ritholtz: Why Original Thought Is Shockingly Rare

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 12:00 PM PDT

Fusion IQ’s Barry Ritholtz joins Markets Hub for a look at a historic market rally and the one trait Wall Street is plagued by.

Bubble/Mania Cycle

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 09:00 AM PDT

Bubbles and Manias

Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University

 

Fascinating chart showing the psychological of a longer market cycle via Prof Jean-Paul Rodrigue.

 

Previously:
Lagging Psychology at Turning Points
Investor Sentiment Wheel
Psy Cycle
Economic Cycles and Investing

10 Thursday AM Reads

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 07:00 AM PDT

My morning reads:

• Presenting… the new BoJ (FT Alphaville)
• Superior Mayan engineering (Noahpinion)
Janet Yellen: A Keynesian Woman at the Fed (New Yorker) but see We Should Already Have Learned How This Will End (Hussman)
• Does Talking To Smart People Help Your Market Returns? (Ivanhoff Capital)
• Finding Good Jobs Without a Degree (Visualizing Economics) see also Unfit for Work (npr)
• Blame Abounds Over a Flawed Foreclosure Review (DealBook)
• A politics of 'unreliable narrators' (Reuters)
• Tantalizing New Clues Into the Mysteries of Dark Matter (NYT) see also Hint of Dark Matter Found (WSJ)
• Apps Fall Far From Apple’s Tree (WSJ)
• Ex-’Seinfeld’ Writer on ‘Curb,’ His Book and Why ‘Girls’ Is the Only Comedy He Can Stand (The Hollywood Reporter)

What are you reading?

 

Gold (GLD) losing its luster …

Source: Fusion Marketsite

Sir John Templeton on Bull Markets

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 06:30 AM PDT

Quote of the Day:

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

-Sir John Templeton

 

TED: 100 Websites You Should Know + Use

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 05:30 AM PDT

How crazy cool is this:

Back in 2007, a TED video discussed a list of 100 websites you should know and use. It became one of their more popular pages.

They just updated 100 Websites You Should Know and Use, and through some administrative snafu, the Big Picture is right there in the BUSINESS + E-COMMERCE section.

Madness!

 

click for actual TED page

Withholding-Tax Collections Surge Higher in March

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 04:00 AM PDT

Click to enlarge:

 

Matt Trivisonno writes:

“At this point of the year in 2010, the Treasury Department had collected $459.6 billion in withholding taxes from the paychecks of American workers. Now in 2013, the amount stands at $545.9 billion – up $86.3 billion or 18.8%. (We compare to 2010 because there was a payroll “tax holiday” in 2011 & 2012).

An 18.8% growth rate over three years is pretty respectable in an era of scant wage inflation. Even more impressive is the recent trajectory of the growth rate. In the chart above (“3-Year-Growth”) you can see that the rate surged all throughout March. The chart plots the 10-day moving average of the growth-rate to give us a look at the second-derivative. As you can see it was “up, up, and away” during March.

So, the odds of a disappointing jobs report on Friday seem very low.

If a weak number is reported, the odds favor it will likely be revised upward in the future. The consensus forecast among economists is for only +193,000 jobs, which is substantially lower than the 236,000 added in February.

That forecast appears to be excessively gloomy in light of the withholding-tax data, perhaps setting the stage for another upside surprise. On the other hand, the stock market was strong during March, so perhaps it has already priced in the news.

 

Source: Daily Jobs Update

Hulbert on New Market Highs

Posted: 04 Apr 2013 03:00 AM PDT

Here's what happens when market hits a new high

Source:
Would new Dow record set a bear market trap?
Mark Hulbert
MarketWatch, February 28, 2013
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-02-28/commentary/37342359_1_bull-market-new-dow-record-market-hits

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